casparjack

...or you could just learn to spell, like in the old days!!

No surprise there then! The charts look virtually the same as they've looked since early May from a very broad perspective...

So if the lows, (note no apostrophe is required here as it's only a plural), vanish and the highs disappear too, then what has been bringing our weather recently then - I'm confused?

Morning Mushy, Not wishing to be pedantic, but I can't see what you're describing 15c uppers wise across any of England, let alone most of it?; I've posted the charts I'm looking at to illustrate my confusion? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see that, but I can't...

Most notable thing for me at T240 on the 00z ECM is the total absence of high pressure on the chart in our section of the northern hemisphere - even the Azores high has disappeared south - no wonder it's unsettled up here - little sign of a significant change either I fear at the moment.

I think the best way to sum up the next three/four days is frustrating, yes somewhere in the E/SE will undoubtedly reach 30c, but looking at the run of FAX charts from 0z today right through to T96 when the front currently to our West is still hanging around across the middle of the country we always have cloud in the mix, a good heat source, but too much moisture. By T192 the ECM shows yet another attempt by the Azores high to ridge across the UK from the SW, but as already this season, the next low comes barrelling in and barges it out of the way - we are stuck with this southerly jet it seems - the clock is now ticking for summer 2011 I fear; that is if you're looking for a sustained period (five/seven days) of clear/sunny/warm weather...

The 14th is over two weeks away, there is no wonder it has changed in one run, you'd be better off looking in the period up to T120 and trying to figure out what might happen from charts in that range than constantly gazing into the low res regions of GFS...

Sorry, which deep area of low pressure are you referring to, I can see plenty of low pressure across all three model runs?

Yes I noticed that too, they just seem to sit across the centre of the country with no real driver to clear them away. What's also very apparent is how the low to the West of the UK just bumps the high back south in the space of about 24 hours and takes control, though it does look as if it will drag some +10c 850s over the bulk of the country for a couple of days in the middle of next week - as you say, rather cloudy and muggy I suspect...

Yes, it should be useful/interesting to see how I get on in the run out of Summer into Autumn/Winter...

I tried just one, but that brought on the shakes!! Seriously though, I cut out the GFS as it introduces too much variation with four runs every day. I plan to start looking at the 12z from ECM and GFS together in August, just to see how it compares - I'll let you know...

To avoid the extreme mood swings that some posters endure on a daily basis, I have tried for the past month or so to just view the ECM (and FAX charts), two runs per day is more stable in my view than four. What I've noticed this morning and Gibby has referred to it in his post here, is that the ECM has reverted to the more high pressure influenced, rather than dominated, regime next week that it was indicating 72 hours ago; it introduced the low right over the top of the UK on Tuesday I think, then started to inch away from the idea and now reverts this morning to something akin to its original suggestion. We'll see over the weekend if it continues to evolve, but I feel it might be pretty close to correct...

Having looked at the latest FAX charts they still seem to show influence from fronts for the next 48/72 hours, though the MetO have changed their opinion a little for my area overnight, though that's the computer rather than a human forecaster. From a 'real' perspective though, it started cloudier than yesterday, then cleared to cloudless skies about 9am, but just starting to fill in with Cu now, just approaching 4hrs of bright sunshine on the recorder... We'll see, but the 11z visible satellite picture shows the low/mid level cloud pulling back/burning off more readily than yesterday at this time, so despite higher humidity levels than yesterday there does appear to be more widespread sunshine as you predicted. I must upgrade to Extra and get access to the cloud prediction charts!! P.S. in the space of forty minutes we have gone from 1/8 Cu to 7/8 Cu/Sc - quicker than yesterday!

Hi there, I am a little surprised to read that you think tomorrow and Thursday will be generally sunnier than today, we had 5.8 hrs today, 95% of that before lunchtime, yet looking at the FAX charts for 12z tomorrow and Thursday, they suggest remnants of weak fronts hanging around across England and a cross reference with the MetO forecast for my area, Hereford being the nearest town they actually forecast for, predicts solid medium level cloud for the next three days, even the text is only just suggesting a few sunnier spells towards the Marches. I appreciate I don't have access to the GFS cloud prediction charts, but can they be that different?

Why does it help those people who don't understand the models? Does it indicate that it might snow or that thousands will die in a ten day heatwave - no it doesn't do either, it simply expresses a worthless opinion in a few words. Tonight's ECM isn't as good perhaps as the previous two runs, but frankly compared to what we've had for the bulk of June and July it's still pretty good, it should deliver some reasonable dry weather to much of the UK with decent spells of sunshine and temperatures well into the 20s over many parts on the majority of days through to early August. Even at T240 it's hardly a disaster, is it? .

Beats me why you guys are all arguing about temperatures at 850mb for one ensemble member in effective FI? How about some real model analysis in here... It looks as though next week will be one of the best in the past six to eight weeks almost countrywide, yes it'll change detail wise, but it always does - no two days the same - what happens beyond that no one knows for sure

I don't do wishful thinking in meteorology, experience tells me it has very limited effect on the outcome! All I was saying was that I doubted that the modelled low would stay in the same spot for almost a week. It may, it may not - we don't know; my opinion however is still that we might see more influence from the Azores anticyclone than currently indicated by the ECM. That's all, nothing more nothing less, a freely expressed view in the course of model discussion.

Just looked at the ECM 00z and to me it looks an unlikely outcome. The suggestion that a low will arrive then sit W/NW of Ireland from T96 to T240 with very little change in central pressure, 8mb or so, it seems to deepen, fill, deepen then fill again - I don't doubt that scenario to start with, I just can't see it lasting out to day 10 with little or no real change, I suspect subsequent runs might show a different evolution, maybe allowing a little more influence from the high to the SE at last.

Yes, at this time of year even if the air temperature does drop below 5c, which isn't that rare in prone 'frost hollows', you are less likely to see the ground/grass temperature demonstrate much of a difference to the air temperature at screen level, because of the heat retained in the soil. For example my 30cm soil temperatures are now around 16c, it is therefore almost unknown apart from on the sandiest of soils to see a ground frost from mid June to the end of August.

I too have the remote transmitting anemometer and my battery has lasted since September 2006 - clearly the solar panel is pretty effective - having said that I'll now probably get a 'low battery' warning!! I found a site that sells the replacement lithium CR123 batteries in bulk for about £1.50 each, as opposed to £6-7 in the newsagents as my other remote sensors, the Davis temperature stations you were discussing above, literaly 'eat' them. I have two temperature stations one for grass min (I too am obsessed) and one measuring 30cm soil temperature, it's gripping stuff this meteorological recording...

I think what TEITS suggested above in looking back at 100 years of archive as a starting point for such a long range detailed forecast, whilst perfectly valid as a starting point, highlights how misleading the widespread use of the 'mean' as a benchmark for weather conditions at any time of the year is. My point is that you so often hear the media forecasts referring to 'average for the time of year', but when you think about it, this is a pretty meaningless statement - broken down, what it means is the temperature on any given day might be close to the average of a data series for that day, week month whatever you choose over a period of 'n' years. Now within that sample there will be large variations from the 'mean', resulting from exceptional synoptic conditions which in themselves might be very rare due to the many variables required to be in place to generate such resultant conditions. These extremes are 'diluted' by calculating the mean. My argument here is that for such data analysis, 'the mean is meaningless'!! One could argue that 'modal' analysis would be a better indication of the most common conditions at any time of the year - though I appreciate it's possible to have similar temperatures as a result of many different synoptic types. What might be more valuable is a method of illustrating that at most times of the year and particularly during the winter period our weather is extremely disturbed, especially when the Atlantic has its traditional way - we can experience huge ranges in temperature in a 24 hour period and the weather conditions associated with these are equally diverse. I don't have a perfect solution, but what I'm trying to say is that in my opinion the mean is neither useful as a forecasting tool or really as a comparator for synoptic conditions. Probably not the right thread for this, but this prompted something that's been on my mind for a while...

My monthly mean here in Herefordshire will come out at exactly -1.0c, average max 1.4c and average minimum -4.0c - this might drop a little as the temperature is now falling again, we stand at 23 air frosts and 30 ground frosts so far, today being the only day without a ground frost so far, so fingers crossed for a clear spell or two before midnight to achieve 100%... Also 14 ice days, 12 nights sub -5.0c and 5 below -10.0c - exceptional.

Just out of interest, the mean for my station here in Herefordshire, 24th November to 20th December inclusive is -1.37c, the equivalent for the first twenty days of December is -1.15c.

Just had a glance at your 'Blog', fascinating, I'll take a proper look in the next couple of days and comment in a PM, sorry mods OT!!

I agree, they should stick to the 120 hr time frame and leave the 6-15 days to us and the year 2100 to the politicians!!