Muffelchen
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Posts posted by Muffelchen
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Yep, I think the NHC are underestimating this one due to incorrect initialisation position. I remember Wilma, Felix and Humberto and how fast they strengthened. I think this could well happen with this system. Everything is set up right and it has 'the look'.
Let's hope the NHC are right and I am wrong!
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Just looked at the latest IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
It looks like it is going through the gap.
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The question is are they running the models from the right location. Dolly's circulation formed further North than yesterday's deep convection and, looking at the latest statellite, I think it is still further North than the position shown on the tracking map. If so, it might just thread the needle.....
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The tropics are busy for this time of the year: look what's just about to come off the African coast! Sometimes these just die over water but sometimes......
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Christobal's LLC seems to be exposed to the north of the convection just South of Cape Lookout. Is a new circulation centre likely to form under the convection, which has blossomed overnight?
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Yep, my mistake. Ginger is third then.
They don't seem to make them like this any more. The retrograde motion with Ginger was pretty cool. I think I read about that hurricane somewhere before.
Wonder if we will get a Cat 5 this year? If so, let's hope it's a fish.....
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Hurricane/Typhoon John which existed in the east/central/west Pacific in 1994. Lasted 31 days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)
For the Atlantic, it's Hurricane Ginger in 1971, which incidentally is also the second longest lasting worldwide on record.
What about the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899?
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First lightning seen at 18:14 followed by a rumble 20 seconds later. There were a few more similar and nearest approach was 2 miles (10 secs). All done and dusted by 18:30 but storm developed as it moved Northeast.
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Storm here today: first thunder heard 17:00 last at 17:35 to the north. Main storm (there were two) passed from the SW to the NE of this location, we clipped the edge. Great views of the cell as it moved away northward later. A smaller cell, also electrified, ran parallel to the first one from due South of here to NE, over the city of Hull and on towards the coast. Heard frequent thunder and saw lightning from both cells at the same time.
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15:50 lightning seen and thunder heard. Lasted for about 20 minutes or so, one rumble or so per minute. Very heavy rain lasted for about 5 minutes starting at 16:00. No hail. Location was Bishop Burton near Beverley, E Yorks.
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I would like to echo the sentiments above. I have enjoyed every minute of your adventure in the States and have read every word here, although I don't post too often.
Thanks for letting us live the dream with you guys, although maybe Kearney was more like a nightmare
Safe home.
Muffel
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Team are on I70 heading toward Oakley, they are now goin to intercept
that tornado warned cell.
http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html
KSN are streaming live on these cells. Huge softball sized hail coming from these storms.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHEASTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ALEXANDER...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF BAZINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDER...
NEKOMA...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN
NESS COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
NL, how did you get the satellite pic and tornado warning overlays for Google Earth?
Your help is appreciated with this: you definately are the MAN!
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I have entirely too much time on my hands. :lol:
There were some spectacular shots of a couple of tornadoes a bit earlier, and I expect we'll see more soon. Utterly compelling stuff to watch.
Oh wow.. and there it is!
There is sound, yes. Open it in Windows Media Player or equivalent and make sure the volume isn't muted (in the app as well as the mixer)
Na, still can't get any sound. Got the airoplane pics though and dave Drummond on the ground on the same storm. Amazing pics
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Live Channel 9 feed amazing stuff now :
mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419
Already a few tornadoes.. funnels forming all the time.
Are you getting any sound on this or just pics?
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Dave Drummond has a tornado on the ground right now:
http://wx5tvs.com/content/view/65/83/
Live Channel 9 feed amazing stuff now :mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419
Already a few tornadoes.. funnels forming all the time.
Feed is awesome!!!
Where do you find this stuff?
I would not fly in that plane if you paid me
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Hope the boys have good luck in NE. One cell up there at the moment. Two large cells have broken the CAP just N of Oklahoma City. One is already tornado warned and has a TVS. Not many chasers on it and no reports yet though. A promising start: it is early yet.
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Check out Dennis Sherrod's cam. He is on the cell crossing I70 at the moment. Unfortunately you need to keep refreshing the stream due to the lightning (lots!) cutting it out but there is a great lowering.
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Tim Purington (Severe Studios) is on the tornado near Hoxie, KS right now
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Matt Grantham has a gorgeous tornado on the ground on cam at the mo
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Matt Grantham (Severe Studios) has a funnel cloud on cam at the mo..
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Check out Matt Grantham on Severe Storms...NOW
Sorry Severe Studios .....got a bit excited :-)
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Been holding-off on start point as difficult day to guess. Have finally decided: was going to head for Shreveport but will now go further East, Monroe seems a fair bet.
Not all that confident though and today is probably going to be a bust.
Last night was a stoater though!
Muffel
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I have been living in Beverley now since September 2003 and I have to say that this place is impressive when it comes to thunderstorms. I haven't counted exactly how many thunder days we have had this year yet, but I would estimate 15, including today and yesterday (I can work it out though if anyone is really interested).
Needless to say with this number of storms, I thought there was a good chance that if I kept my eyes open locally I would see a few funnelclouds and guess what I have. I previously lived in Wales and Scotland and we hardly got any storms although I did see a tornado near Falkirk on the eve of my wedding! This was twelve years ago yesterday as today is my wedding anniversary
. I also saw one other funnelcloud which later became a tornado over Fintry, Stirlingshire in 15 years up in Bonny Scotland.As to Beverley my record is pretty good and serves to demonstrate what a good area this is for storms:
Summer 2004: one funnelcloud near S Cave (got a pic if anyone wants to see it)
Summer 2005: Nowt :wacko:
Summer 2006: Two funnelclouds (Bishop Burton and Bev) and one probable funnel (N Lincs)
Summer 2007: Two funnelclouds (Beverley: same storm have pics) and it is only mid July
Not bad eh?
Hurricane Dolly
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Back in now and have checked on IR satellite view of Dolly. That burst of convection that the NHC had as the centre was just that, a burst of convection. The centre of circulation is North of the the burst (which has now faded) and is headed directly for the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba: the eye of the needle:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
This storm will need to be watched VERY closely indeed.