chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Hailstorm here just now - paths are white, and our lettuce seedlings will have been demolished, I fear.

Anyone else think those showers in Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are heading this way?

Same here!

Cooler and cloudier in south Norfolk, but still dry, which is annoying.

It's disappointing relative to the last few weeks, and I'd argue that 16C is rather cool for June, but it isn't cold either, unless your personal frame of reference has average temperatures as underwhelming and high 20s Celcius being what you expect in June. That would be reasonable for late July, but rather optimistic for this point.

I'd be happy for the entire summer to be 23C and sunny - I may not like heat + humidity, but I do enjoy warmth and sun. Unfortunately, you can't have the nice, positive side to endless dry weather without the adverse effects; the global climate does not accede to our desires, preferences or requirements - it does what physics dictate and we have zero say in the matter, whether we want the current conditions to continue or whether we're in serious need of them changing.

Just to demonstrate that things were arid around here in summer 2018: https://www.edp24.co.uk/business/farming/drought-hit-east-anglian-farmers-concerned-as-harvest-approaches-1-5584309 I can't actually find photos of my immediate are, but the vegetation was so pale (having gone from brown to a sort of pale grey) that the sun made it resemble lying snow.

Indeed not, but, as benefits go, a suntan is a pretty empty one if there are more urgent downsides, like standpipes as was experienced in 1976.

You'd be surprised... Back O/T, I like the outputs for the end of the wek for my area - possible rainfall where we need it, and less in areas that are still OK?

Agreed, and this supports my point that, in the West, most of us have become isolated from Nature and agriculture over the past 100 years or so. In my rural village, prior to agricultural mechanisation, most people were either agricultural workers or had a trade that related to farming. For them, hot, dry summers with insufficient rain could bring economic collapse, so they were well aware of the dryness of the soil and multuple other natural factors that would help determine the success of the crops and the health of their livestock. Much has changed since then, resulting in most people being utterly ignorant of the fact that the summer weather they crave can still cause difficulties, and that their ancestors would not have enjoyed endless dry weather as they are fortunate enough to be able to.

I resemble that remark! Anyway, what's interesting about much of the input you've posted today is that most of the rain spikes appear after the pressure has already increased slightly.

Fair point - I wasn't being entirely literal. That being said,if this continues until September, which some want, there will be problems here. It's as dry now as it was in early July in 2018.

Hence I said that I wasn't asking for a 2007 re-run. I only mentioned personal preference as I find cool summers, like that year, much more comfortable and pleasant (provided there's some dry weather between the fronts) than last year, which I found uncomfortable, sweaty and fatigue-inducing. I am, however, aware than I am in a small minority. I'm also trying to distance myself from the heat fans' insistence that anyone like me who wants a few days of rain over the course of the summer wants 'miserable weather'. What I actually want, or, rather, would prefer, is the following: 1. East Anglia and England as a whole to experience a British summer. I don't want a Saudi summer, an Arizona summer or a summer from North Africa. British summers contain some rain, whether we like it or not 2. Further to (1), I don't want to live in a desert. Disability means that emigrating would be difficult, but, otherwise, I'll say that if I wanted to live somewhere where it almost never rained, I'd move to the UAE or Southern California. What irritates me is people who won't emigrate, but who want the climate here to change to that of one of the aforementioned countries, and ignore the consequences. There are plenty of things I'd love to change about this country beyond the weather, but I appreciate that it would be wrong of me to complain about the fact that the UK isn't as I'd like it to be unless I'm prepared to leave. Trust me, were I able-bodied, I'd have moved years back, probably to France, Germany or Scandinavia. As I cannot, I put up with those aspects of my country that I don't like. 3. With the virus causing enough problems, I don't want crop failures due to drought to hit us at the moment, as this would cause food costs to increase at a time when more people in this country are struggling due to job losses, furloughs or stagnating wages. It's the reason I've ignored my preference for cold winters and have been pleased that much of Britain has had mild winters this past couple of years - with A&E in continual crisis, the last thing it needed was bad weather creating more casualties. 4. I like variable conditions - I no more like endless cloudy days or rain than endless days of indentical blue skies and sun. Our climate was famed for its changeability, but it seems to be becoming more continental and predictable these days, which, I admit, I find uninteresting. Moderate conditions also tend to present the least harm and difficulty, which is another reason for liking them. My philosophy isn't that I want miserable weather to annoy most people. I don't get any pleasure from seeing others miserable, but I can't help not liking seeing the countryside I love and have lived in all my life turn to grey dust. I also can't help struggling in hot, humid weather like we've had the past couple of summers.

Some would disagree: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/weather/drought-fears-grow-as-dry-spell-continues While I agree that this has been a superb spring, we do need some rain. I don't know whereabouts in London you live, and therefore how much vegetation you see on a daily basis, but trust me, out here in rural England, everything is worryingly brown for the 1st of June (not that I'm getting around much in the current situation, but I know how dry the countryside must be based on the state of our garden). If we continue with endless sunny days, the crops will be at risk of failure. I'm certainly not asking for summer 2007 (though, speaking personally, I'd take that over a re-run of last year's heat), but we could do without another very dry summer.

I graduated a month prior to that! Regarding models, it's always worth considering the ensemble spread before drawing conclusions regarding the operational.

Always useful to have the background to the NWP explained, even if I still haven't learned what all these teleconnections are and how to understand them...virus shutdown has been busier than I expected!

Amazing how two knowledgeable people can view the same outouts and come to almost entirely different conclusions - not criticising, just remarking at how there is a fair degree of art in interpreting outputs.

It's evident from the ouputs that Entropy is high after around 7 days.

Met Office contingency report disagrees, as does the ECMWF monthly, apparently.

Quite pleasant here, actually - slight breeze and not excessively humid.

Thank-you! My thoughts entirely! I might not want a drought, but neither do I want continual rain, either.

Sounds speculative that far out, but it's plausible, albeit unlikely.

Not saying it's imminent, but that another 3 months of low rainfall will cause problems.

Thinking further about this, I think you're onto something with your comment about some acting as though this is a game. Were the desires of some Netweather posters to verify, the virus would seem insignificant compared with the chaos and economic disaster following the drought that such an outcome would cause. I know I'm being repetitive in my posts, and that those who want four months of heat think I'm trying to ruin their enjoyment (even moderators think I'm guilt-tripping heat lovers when I make the point that it, as with all meteorological extremes, has downsides) but I really, seriously think this forum is at risk, as you suggest, of forgetting that this isn't a game or a simulation - it's real life, and people can be seriously affected by extreme weather. Do we really wish further suffering when the virus is bringing misery and hardship to a fair percentage of the population? Crop failures, increases in food costs and shortages in the supermarkets would be yet another problem that most in this country who don't obsess over computer weather models would, I'm sure, prefer not to have to contend with this year, if ever.

Can't see there's much to complain about if you want settled warm weather in those outputs.