Evening thunder
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Posts posted by Evening thunder
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Does the UK really seem that bad from abroad as some living here make it out to be?
I would love to lose the Euroslug high that seems omnipresent even in longer range anomaly charts.. It's yet another dull day here, I know some have been lucky with sunshine/warmth but apart from that I don't really see how this is better than more active/mobile Atlantic weather, at least for those interested in the weather. For a start I'd get more sunshine especially in PM air.
It does look like something a bit more disturbed this and early next week though, even if mainly TM air still.
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Has to be the worst kind of day here. Dark and drizzly, has felt like the lights should be on all day. Temp 13.2c, max of 13.5c this morning.
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Nothing..
Well, ok every year has some events/statistics you can pick out.
Speaking purely from my home location (I did experience heat and one storm in Surrey in July)..
16.3C on the 9th Jan (during cloudy weather too), possibly a record or near record for the area.
April the 15th reached 22.1C, quite good for April here.
July 1st did have my highest min at 18.3C (and it was 23.7C at 2am, only 6 maxima were higher this year..)
Then July the 31st had my lowest July min at 3.6C.
August was very wet with 157mm, but it was relatively spread out despite a few 20-30mm falls (the river didn't do much).
The year also has the undesirable honour of being the only year I've recorded to not reach 25C once!
Many of the stats that you can pick out occurred in the 'wrong' season (i.e warm in Jan and cold in July, reducing our already low seasonal range), and occur normally at all other times of year.
Apart from mentioned, no notable high/low maxima, only one sleety snow shower, no really significant falls of rain or strong winds, bits of thunder but below average and nothing major, though one 'average' thunderstorm passed overhead on the 22nd August.. also the year with the least downpours and lowest maximum rain rate since my records start (2008).
As mentioned by Azazel the year was also remarkably devoid of convective skies and cumulonimbus (sunshine and heavy/thundery shower days) here, and is the year with the least downpours and lowest maximum rain rate on my weather station's records (2008 onwards).
I tend to think of 2011 being a boring year, but then it had that record April and Autumn heatwave.
2014 had much more interesting weather here though. -
Cloud tried to clear but then came back in, currently 12.7c with a high earlier of 13.2c.
Yesterday also had low cloud all day though it cleared about an hour before sunset, followed by rapid fog patch formation around sunset.
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"Those of us who don't want november to be one long mild benign bore fest will like this run"
If the November weather is like today, long may the "borefest" continue. If we can't get blizzards then let's have what we currently have rather than the usual wet and windy.
Well if it was sunny most of the time at least. Unfortunately this pattern is often likely to be cloudy/murky and dull for many, with maybe some fronts entrained giving light-moderate rain and drizzle (as the GFS illustrates for the coming week and beyond). Even in sunny breaks it will often be hazy with limited visibilities from viewpoints.
I'd definitely take a properly mobile Atlantic over a Eurohigh all month, especially after October's lack of weather.. it would probably provide more sunshine too (as well as very good visibilities compared to hazy stagnant polluted air).
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As long as you take account that some stations on Wunderground are not very accurate (some don't even show rain) then that is an option.
If you know a nearby official station name you can look it up here http://www.ogimet.com/indicativos.phtml.en
and then type the WMO index in here if you wish to view before the last 30 days http://www.ogimet.com/gsynres.phtml.en
Alternatively sites like http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/united-kingdom.html have data for lots of 'official' UK stations that goes further back in time (though a lot have patchy data or are now closed), many of which have precipitation data.
Of course a drawback is precipitation totals can differ from the nearest official site, particularly on showery/convective days.
Netweather has daily high-resolution precipitation total maps estimated from radar, though that requires at least a radar subscription. -
In fact I've just noticed some curious differences between the Met Office and GFS temps for next week.. Met Office much colder in places..
Met Office temps at 3pm on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday:
Compared to GFS max temps:
Tuesday is currently the 06Z run (and Monday the 12z for 6pm not 3pm, but these are generally the same as the 3pm max temp charts (they really show the 3pm-6pm max temps)) as the GFS seems to be coming out really slowly again.
Met Office model going for lingering fog/low cloud? Weather symbols are generally cloudy/dull looking by day.-
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With the factors well discussed e.g by the Met Office blog I'm feeling 60% for milder at the moment, at least for December and January (last month I was around 50/50).
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It has been an incredibly boring Autumn so far here. In fact, between 29th August and now there hasn't been a maxima lower than 11.7C or higher than 19.8C. The only plus side is that it has been rather dry overall.
I like an Autumn with variety, both warm and cold spells (obviously with the warmer spells in the first half and colder in the second), but this year has just been 12-19C every day and looks like continuing for a while yet.
The only point of interest is we could threaten the high maximum in November but that's about it.
Same here, and I like variety too. We've had one maxima above 20C (21.3C on the 10th Sep), with the lowest being 12.9C on the 23rd Oct. A few ground frosts here though that would be expected.
Not quite sure about temps this coming week here either as with weak sun (if the cloud breaks) and a southerly this time of year the air temp will struggle to rise more than a degree or to above the sea temp here. 16C forecast tomorrow but Sunday/Monday only is only forecast 14C (though that could be under-doing it a bit).
Uneventful for every other aspect too (calmer than summer so far).. rather dry here too but that's added to the boredom if anything.
Mind you summer was the same.. no maxima above 24C since the 1st July and only 3 in the whole year (highest max 24.6C, lowest yearly max I've recorded.. so much for the July heat blip).
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5.2mm of rain and drizzle this morning according to the Davis VP2, but 6.75mm in the manual guage.. perhaps due to wind blown drizzle reducing the catch of the Davis (2 days ago they were both identical)
Anyway, drier, calmer and mostly cloudy since then but a little hazy sun earlier.
It's interesting how different the Met Office forecast is to the GFS for tomorrow.. The Met Office had been quite consistent for rain returning in the evening, though now has rain all day:
Whereas the GFS has been consistent in heavy rain in the early hours, which then clears in the morning to not return! (it does have a weak band east of here during the day now but even that's evaporated by evening)
We shall see..
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Well, I'll take it if it leads to another 31st December 1978..
Otherwise based on the models this could possibly be the most boring Autumn I've experienced to make this year a very good contender for the most boring year..
Typical that it happens when I'm back home from uni with not much going on atm, whereas when at uni all sorts of interesting weather events and storms happened at home in Autumn and Winter.
I am really missing the gales and rain that we had in the south a couple years ago, this is my least favourite weather....don't get me wrong I don't mind dry but where was this high in summertime.
I really hope this isn't a sign of this coming winter, cold, snowy (if there's any chance in the southwest) or wind and rain is what I would like......fingers crossed.
Completely agree with you, though it often feels like we're a minority in wanting more interesting/mobile weather even on this forum.
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Got down to 0.3C here, the lowest temp and the most frost seen so far.
Exeter Airport recorded an air frost with an hourly reading of -0.1C (so could have gone a touch lower).
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A dull morning which turned rather drizzly until around lunch time, which then cleared somewhat before a proper clearance of cloud mid afternoon. Breezy and briefly quite windy this afternoon.
Currently 6.1C and may get close to freezing by dawn.
The Autumn colours are quite good now, and I noticed when driving around lunch time even though it was cloudy, as visibility was good in the Atlantic air (the drizzle had stopped), they still looked much better (stood out more), as did the views around here, than they did in the cloudy but also hazy anticyclonic days last week.
Having moved here some years ago from the south coast, my first impression was how little 'weather' Reading gets, particularly during a prolonged spell of easterlies. We've had 3 cloudy and uneventful days here this week, followed by today, which was similar but with a couple of light showers and a bit of drizzle
I had a similar experience moving to Egham (near Heathrow) for uni in 2012. I had the impression that inland locations would be better (probably due to slightly more extreme temps, more summer convection), but in reality the weather here in Devon typically seems a bit more interesting (especially while I was at uni of course..), at least away from Summer.
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Wouldn't be surprised if those ECM charts were mainly stagnant and cloudy once more.
Apparently we are seeing more interesting model watching than the last few years, shame it's not translating to more interesting weather.
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I think the comment related to a certain members typical posts on this forum.
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Actually quite a nice day today, although high cloud turned the sunshine weaker and the sky whiter compared to the morning.
The last couple of days haven't been too bad (though yesterday mainly cloudy), and I though the sky looked nice driving home this evening with the variety of high cloud ahead of the front (Some nice Autumn colours getting going around here too). Better than the generally grey cloudy and hazy conditions we had under the high before.
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It does seem the Davis sensors vary a bit with them generally topping out somewhere between 95-100%, with 5% error being the tolerance limit at that humidity level (Davis uses the SHT11 sensor (or I think SHT71 for the Vue which has the same specs)) http://www.sensirion.com/en/products/humidity-temperature/humidity-temperature-sensor-sht1x/
Though I feel temperature readings are usually better than those specs, with humidity limiting sensors to that category.
Around 98-99% is perhaps the most common limit from the Vantage Vue stations I've noticed. Though I use a Pro2, my first sensor topped out at about 95%, 2nd one 98-99%, and the current one 97-98%. I did set a +1 offset to keep it consistent but that probably affects the accuracy at lower humidities, though I find Davis dew points in general often read a little higher than official Met/Airport stations.
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This settled spell is looking great over the coming days..
1-5 day forecast:
6-10 day forecast:
Hopefully it won't be completely cloudy.. but we would probably get more sun and of course actual weather out of a southwesterly.
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Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport. Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....hmmmm
BFTP
So if we broke our Jan cold record in a milder than average winter, would you simply dismiss that record? hmmmm.
Indeed it was record heat for that day and location, and the highest UK July temperature recording.. It's hardly just heat that gets sensationalised, in 2010 we were getting headlines of 'COLDER THAN ANTARCTICA' etc..
And a rather dodgy reading if I recall. There was a suggestion it could have coincided with the back wash from a jet engine. I share your scepticism.
It does seem a bit higher than surrounding sites on that day, and maybe it's possible that the tarmac or something influenced the temps slightly, but the station meets official siting and there was an analysis showing no obvious cause of the temp spike such as the wind shifting. It could have simply occurred due to cloud clearing to strong sunshine. Even if it did make the 0.2C difference, it would have been very close anyway and that station has been at the busy airport for a long time, which didn't break the record in July 2006 or months like Aug 2003. Often, other nearby stations record the highest temperatures such as Northolt, Kew Gardens, Wisley etc, so it doesn't really seem like a dodgy site.
Not that much of the media would care for such considerations.Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this!
This was just for Southern England with no national records broken, though I remember the forecasts at the end of the month when that min occurred definitely highlighting the contrast between the two records. I guess a cold record in July doesn't seem so significant (especially to the media) as those temps occur all other times of year.. a bit like some possible or near record mild temps this Jan. For a closer comparison see my point about 2010 although that was still 5C off the record..
I wonder what the media would come up with if we actually broke our cold record? I do suspect it would if anything be more sensational, with claims trying to dismiss 'global' warming. I doubt that it likely being recorded at relatively new Scottish Highland stations would be considered in the resulting headlines.
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0.9C both yesterday and today here, so getting closer.
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What is it with our current governments and their hate of free speech?
http://metro.co.uk/2015/10/11/courts-could-make-it-illegal-to-question-climate-change-5433637/
Personally I don't deny that the Earth is warming up and will continue to do so for the next few thousand years, but I have a big problem accepting that it has been caused by man. In the context of glacial/interglacials there is nothing unusual about this warming and as we are 13,000 years in to this current interglacial we should be approaching peak warming in the next couple of thousand years. In fact the only thing unusual about this interglacial is that it's relatively weak compared to the last 4 peaks.
Thoughts? Should certain air vibrations that come out of our mouths be criminal offences?
I doubt that would actually become law and I have no problem if people question climate change based on scientific evidence, rather than because they apparently know so much more from sitting in their armchair (odd how people don't do this so much with doctors and various other professions?). Unfortunately this post is a good example, as, sorry but I am going to have to correct your paragraph which is pretty incorrect.
If you actually study Quaternary climate in depth, is very hard to try and suggest it hasn't been caused by man. The orbital forgings that lead to the glacial-interglacial cycles and associated greenhouse gas and temperature trends, especially for interglacials, are relatively well understood. Each interglacial is different, however temperature trends can generally be explained by trends in orbital forcing and associated factors. Typically, as shown in your graph the current pattern of interglacials (apart from MIS-11, the first interglacial in the graph) feature an early peak in temperature coinciding with insolation maxima in the northern Hemisphere, before gradually declining as summer isolation declines. Greenhouse gases also follow this early peak and then decline with insolation.
This also occurred during the 'Holocene climatic optimum' and the Holocene fits this pattern of orbital forcing. Apart from the fact we have recently departed from this normal trend for temperature and especially CO2.
Indeed the Holocene has recently become unique in now having a relatively rapid warming when other indicators suggest the Earth should in the long term be gradually cooling.. except for greenhouse gas levels. Further, carbon isotopes provide very strong evidence that the hugely anomalous CO2 levels have been released via burning of fossil fuels.. rather than from natural sources.
It would therefore be interesting to see the sources of your knowledge and also which temperature reconstruction that graph shows.
Some of what you say is somewhat true in that if you ignore causes, there is nothing unusual in the scale of predicted warming relative to glacial-interglacial changes, and it is also true that some previous interglacials were up to a few degrees warmer, but we are adjusted to the current climate and if we jumped to that warmth naturally or anthropogenically, the associated climate change and sea level rise would cause similar problems.. If we somehow experienced an abrupt change on the scale of glacial-interglacial changes we would be in even more trouble.. indeed past changes caused the expansion and collapse of the ranges of many species.
But anyway, relating to the topic of this thread I would imagine this is not true.. and no I don't believe it should be criminal (unless important organisations do it while ignoring evidence..) however inversely, the fact that Florida banned state officials from using the term 'climate change' and 'global warming' along with others is sadly true.
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Looks the like the Atlantic won't be waking up any time soon! So we'll have to wait a bit for the first proper autumn gales... One positive there is that the trees are getting to keep hold of the leaves for longer allowing some nice colours to develop.
Patchy frost & fog likely next week under the high pressure especially further north and west away from the easterly breeze. The question is how long can we keep high pressure in our vicinity?! And where we do we go next...
Yes that's true, normally I think of the best Autumn colours around here being in around early November give or take a couple weeks (at least for the common big woodland trees such as Oak and Beech), however it some colour is starting to develop already and yesterday I went to Cornwall and there were some quite nice colours on the way there, probably best between Exeter and Okehamphon, though that's just one road of course
There's a lot of talk about the possibility of the blocking conditions in the Atlantic defying the usual gearing up of the Atlantic during October / November being a pre-cursor to a more blocked winter implying better chances of N' and E' outbreaks. Metcheck posted an article recently about blocking patterns too in their 'pipelines' post.
:cold: That's interesting if so as it goes against some other indicators and long range models going for an unsettled/wet late Autumn/early winter, such as in the Met Office contingency planners forecast
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Yes, looking forward to high pressure making a return again showing us the quieter face of autumn for a few days at least. However I would like to see some meaty Atlantic storms at some stage, perhaps into November!
Yes me too, Looks like they'll have to avoid Stafford and go both north and south of there though.
I can't help feel a bit frustrated at how we're getting all this high pressure now at pretty much the least useful time of year for that, when it would have been great in summer, and also better in winter with hard frosts. Especially if it drifts slightly west and moderates the Atlantic cold pool further just before it may be of some benefit..
Having said that I do like misty/foggy starts and sunny days.
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You'd struggle to make up how the heavy showers or anything with interesting intensity has missed here.. Virtually all went just to the east yesterday, mainly just to the west early this morning, then all to the east along with forming a few miles north of us today.. The few coming this way were the ones that died out.
Now it has all ground to a halt with us in a hole with nothing happening while showers spring up everywhere else lol.
:cold: 
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The ECM just can't drop this Euro high.. It's like a dog with a bone (and may be right too
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