Evening thunder
-
Posts
4,872 -
Joined
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Evening thunder
-
-
Sounds like my type of luck haha. Always when I go on holiday I get the reports of my family raving over a big storm, almost taunting me lol.
That is the main reason why I always go to the Balearics in September! As I've always seen at least a couple of belters each time I've gone out there at that time!
Haha yep used to this sort of luck, and that is something I intend to do sometime as I have heard it can be good down there in the Autumn.
There was some nice Ac Cas here earlier, mainly to the east before it moved off with the instability.
-
I have been in Egham the last 2 days but of course I had to come home to Devon today, and as expected a storm is heading right for Egham..
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
It doesn't compare to some of the pictures posted and is a bit late but here are some video grabs of the distant lightning on Friday evening. There are others but this is some of the better ones, also the images next to each other are from the same strike as the lightning decided on different pathways to the ground. For some reason I only thought to zoom in near the end, though the lightning wasn't as concentrated in one area of the sky before that.
There was some nice CBs/anvils lit up by the setting sun as the cells moved away.
-
11
-
That was interesting, 3 quite close rumbles and one flash (just after I'd turned my back typically), and then watched quite a lot of distant CG's raining down to the NW in front of the sunset with distant thunder. Both from clouds you may not have thought were storms.
Took some pics and video (including 120fps with the GoPro, in an attempt to compensate from last Friday when some setting overrode my frame rate choice and meant it effectively came out at 30fps!) however I'm not sure if it will have come out very well considering it was distant stuff. Will have a look through soon.
Also forgot to post anything here from last Friday night in the SE but it was mainly sheet lightning.
-
Of course, the storms that were coming this way have died to be replaced by a storm in the channel too far away to hear or see anything from..
Edit: spoke too soon, thunder!
-
Heard 2 distant rumbles but activity seems to have died off at the mo...
-
Some interesting mammatus just went overhead, even if not associated with a cell in itself:
-
1
-
-
Lol no CAPE and we get this:
Will have to see how long it lasts or if it's just a pulse type storm, activity tailing of on blitzortung now.
-
1
-
-
Been some interesting cloud formations around recently, Virga and Mammatus like formations
Taken slightly earlier:As for that cell that has quickly sprung up to my SW, come to daddy!Didn't really expect this due to no CAPE shown at all, even with a trough. Nice surprise though.-
1
-
-
Guess it shows the EURO4 (and other models) aren't very good, as it showed Wales/NW England yesterday and now from Hants to the Wash. Though some others including me always felt the greatest risk of strong/severe storms was further east.. in fact the BBC etc have come into line with what I and sites such as convective weather UK have thought since yesterday, although that may be luck as despite my best 'instinct' based on available charts I was feeling rather confused even earlier today lol.
-
Altocumulus trying to tower here too.. think it's too early for anything major to form from it though
Edit: by the time I've posted that tower has got higher so proper towering AC now..
Edit again: not very solid looking though, probably just unstable precursor clouds
-
1
-
-
For all you iOS users out there like me, Here is an app that gives push notifications with the distance and bearing of nearby lightning strikes. I find this very useful personally, and it's the only app that has this Capability I have found, at least for iOS. Unfortunately the data isn't real time, but instead you get a notification around every 20 minutes, but still.
It utilises the Blitzortung data.
Burzowo - lightning map by Jakub Furman
Not sure how long it been available for iOS but quite recently I downloaded the app called Blitzortunglive onto my iPhone and that does use live data, you can set a radius around a point by pressing and holding the map for a second, and it sends push notifications/alerts when lightning occurs. It also has a countdown till the next thunder, but don't have experience with it yet
-
1
-
-
For some reason our internet has decided to start playing up most of the time again, how convenient! so getting this post in while I can (haven't read last few pages yet), was feeling rather unsure of where to but glad my thoughts and instinct is in line with what Paul is thinking!
I do think the wording of the Met Office warning may not be completely correct in only really mentioning Wales/NW and the Midlands for greatest disruption risk (though maybe that's for rainfall totals not just intense storms), though I could be wrong. Also aware the warning map still includes the SE.
-
Permission to scream....YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!!
Lol.....
Not counting my chickens OBVIOUSLY....getting the feeling, both from the latest precip forecast being churned out by UKMO, but also NMM, that my patch may be a breeding ground for some awesomeness north and northeast of London.
Haha! the Met Office charts are certainly looking more promising than the BBC for the SE, one can hope they are close to the mark. I have seen them be pretty accurate before.. but on the other hand also pretty wide of the mark.
I'm hopeful for something relatively near my location but I have the same feeling about the best further north/NE, I may head that way tonight to get a better chance.
I am certainly not in favour of this update, but the Met Office are pretty inaccurate when it comes to storms so I shall see if the storms do decide to turn against me and go to the North, West and East of my region.
Ahh that would be typical, I'm pretty used to such occurrences lol. However as you say I wouldn't worry too much based on the detail of any charts like these.
-
Lastest UKMO precip charts breaks out storms for the London area. The previous one left me feeling I was in an ok position based on that, and would drift north/west a little.. The latest I'd stay put or maybe go NE a little but is decent for here.. hard to tell and of course I probably won't know until storms fire, which may almost be too late.
Previous:
Latest:
Both these charts are fore 1am.
The Met Office text forecast for the SE also mentions scattered thunderstorms breaking out.. so as ever we shall see.
-
3
-
-
12z ECM charts for 00z-06z Saturday, heaviest precip towards the NW, less towards the SE, though like you say, not immune.
ecm0125_036.jpgecm0125_042.jpgIt's interesting how the choice of scale affects things, on those charts the SE precip look relatively insignificant whereas on ones I was looking at it looked more significant, if not as heavy as the rainfall further north.
My general thoughts, though not as knowledgeable as some, is that storms are most likely from say the SW up through the Midlands towards the east/NE, but the further east storms can take hold the more potential strength and chance of developing severe characteristics they have, in fact the forecast map from Convective Weather posted by Harry sums up my thoughts very well.
-
12z ECM and 12z UKMO (meso) spreading heavy rain/ embedded storms NE from SW England and Wales with some intense downpours developing across N Midlands north across N England, N Wales and N Ireland then eventually Scotland Saturday morning, SE England and E England escaping the rain/storms
From what I can see on Wunderground and also the 'Home and Dry' app which both have ECM charts, unless I'm mistaken the ECM does break out precip/storms for most of the SE with only perhaps Kent and the far east of east Anglia so I thought it was a relatively positive run
Little USA get a good few year in year out the north does ok but southwest England sees very little or most of the time nothing.
You've probably been unlicky as the SW has had more than Egham recently, I know Bristol had a good thunderstorm from a plume in 2013, my location did well in 2014 (even if I unfortunately was away for half the storms), though it can often be frustrating when they go east or things develop north of us.
-
If I was in the SE, I wouldn't leave it, always more favourable on an averages basis IMO...But as I say, my opinion and Macro theory for Micro application, so not really that sound, but in the long run I guess it works.
Yes it is on longer term averages (though I wouldn't guess it from my experience). I feel like I have been unlucky - sometimes it has felt like a dead zone for the 3 years I've been here (though I'm usually at home for much of the summer) - but I have missed far more storms at home while at uni than the the other way round.
I think Egham is unlucky (at least in recent years), seems to have a storm shield and a member of this forum who was at uni here before me found the same. Too far west for plumes that tend to only affect the SE, often too far east for plumes that affect other areas. It also seems to rarely get decent home grown storms as they often die or avoid here somehow.
In general I feel it's more eastern/central and northern areas that have a higher risk of strong surface based storms like yesterday, as there is more land for the airmass to have travelled over as it moves N/NE, even if days of thunder or elevated plume storms are more common in the SE.
Edit: I forgot there being one final local factor, a storm is always better back home as you can listen to it even from a distance and you get better views, here there's nearly constant planes all day so it's only really worth it if it's relatively close I feel..
-
I don't even know whether I should be in Egham or back home in Devon tomorrow evening..
According to the BBC maps it's back home, but then there was one occasion last June when storms were forecast for the SE.. yet home in Devon gets clobbered with nothing here, and one in July when the BBC only mentioned a risk for the SW.. yet the SE gets clobbered (although there was a bit of nice if infrequent lightning at home).. Guess what my locations were for those 2 events! Yep, where the strong storms weren't..
Regarding the EURO4 I think that is what feeds into the Met/BBC precip charts which is why they look very similar.. however for yesterday evening the Met Office charts for instance just went for a line of thundery showers up the Irish sea..
My general feeling is that while there may well be thunderstorms (potentially quite electrically active) and a lot of rain further west, it is further SE/east where the strongest storms with more of a severe threat (i.e. relatively large hail) may occur, if they fire.
-
2
-
-
Well the latest BBC forecast looked/sounded very good for Friday night.. If you live in perhaps the SW, then especially Wales and then Northern England again!!
SE - nada. Mind you that does contradict some other models.. and GFS called the precip/storm distribution of Wednesday night better than the BBC/MET graphics IMO.
-
2
-
-
Absolutely LOVE this - thanks for posting!
Thats some funky stuff right there...
Sort of reminds me of blood pumping through veins, thats really cool. Also I noticed most of the lightning splits around the UK when it get here? haha
Wow, though I feel like I'm tripping lol. Clearly shows what an active and surprisingly thundery winter parts of the UK had and the spectacular plumes of 17th-19th July and 17th September.
No worries and haha I had similar thoughts when I was watching it.
For tomorrow night I feel reasonably optimistic that some parts of the S/SE will get some goodies out of it, the charts and parameters look good to me. I may be wrong of course, though I wouldn't worry too much about BBC graphics or some model output as they were wrong on the day yesterday and have known them to be many times before (I don't think the BBC graphics showed much on the 28th June 2012)
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
The anvils of storms and MCS systems can of course make them appear much bigger than the true active area.
Though check this out for an idea of the amount of lightning that occurs in the tropics - a timelapse of global for the whole of 2014 in 5 minutes: https://dreambroker.com/channel/vru14x4t/6wpq4n6n-
15
-
Not even a Kent clipper the only things it's clipping away is my patience.
I guess at least most of those across the channel are also frustrated about the storms mainly being at sea..
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en
Most active storm in the world? Well that's easy.. It's sitting of the coast of Kent.. Where else would it be? LMFAO
Haha of course, although the global view can be a tad misleading as it only really has good coverage for Europe and the USA, there's probably a load of lightning in the tropics
-
2
-
-
Troughs were picked up by the Met Office on their fax charts I saw yesterday and this morning for midnight tonight, 06.00 tomorrow and midday tomorrow, transferring from the Channel towards the Midlands over that timescale.
Interesting, I was just going off how no forecast or models I have seen showed any activity at this time or put the SE in the firing line tonight (not that it necessarily will be but the cloud on satellite images is shifting that way)
Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I have my doubts as lightning isn't that frequent compared to superells, and these were/are elevated showers and storms. Temps look too low for surface based storms considering 850hpa temps are nearly as high as surface temps atm.