Evening thunder
-
Posts
4,872 -
Joined
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Evening thunder
-
-
Low of -1.0c as the breeze briefly dropped around Dawn.
Currently 5.4c with glorious sunny skies. Still a touch of frost in some shaded spots.
Met Office forecasting a low of -5c for Ottery St Mary tonight, and we're usually a couple degrees lower than their predictions.. Should certainly be the lowest since February 2012 anyway, as winter 2012/2013 only managed -4.4c in December and March.
-
Just a little moan in this thread: since November the models have had us chasing a Russian high,a Greenland high and a Scandinavian high........ Now the ECM has us chasing an arctic high @240 hours....
Even looks more like an Alaskan high on many models, hopes now pinned on something the other side of the pole to deliver the goods beyond FI while the models show indifferent or rubbish charts for us lol
Maybe, but I have partly allowed myself to be sucked in enough times already. This year there seems to have been a lot of selective posting/believing of the models which paints a better picture than is actually shown on average. I believe there was an Arctic high last winter anyway.
Also more slight shortening of the cold snap this week.. 2 sharp frosts before the breeze turns southerly and cloud increases by Tuesday night. I am looking forward to these frosts however, should beat last winter's mins and the almost as bad 2012/13 (for minima).
-
With all of the talk of snow it seems the wind aspect of this system was forgotten about. Gusts of over 110mph have been recorded on the south coast, with 80-90mph gusts reported inland, according to the map posted on Twitter, courtesy of Meteogroup.
And not even a yellow warning out for the wind from the MetO!
Hmm that's definitely now mph even though the map says it is lol, is that 143mph at Portland? It was pretty windy here, but nothing too unusual with it being windier many times last winter and at least once this Autumn. Certainly not 80-90mph inland gusts so must be km/h I'd guess.
-
Can't believe the.temperature differential on opposing sides of the low
Yes it certainly makes a difference
Just to add I am in east Devon atm and not at uni, I'll go back to the right regional now before I get too jealous..
-
It's most likely power lines shorting due to being weighed/brought down by the snow sticking to them, as no lightning is showing on the detectors.
We have had it here this evening but due to a different reason - wind.
Bright blueish green flashes just a few houses away.
Also it was over 10c when many of you were reporting snow lol, now down to a chilly 7.5c
-
We recently had a shorting power cable near us producing bright green flashes. Seems to have stopped now though.
It's pretty windy though nothing especially unusual - many times windier last winter and also at least once this Autumn .
-
It's all been downgraded, the easterly is now in tatters, high pressure sinking etc, and that was with cross model agreement!!
Fromey
Yup, mind it's mainly the few runs and ensembles showing the cold/snowy options that are posted so often in that thread it seems a better picture than the models show overall in reality.
-
1
-
-
A friend by the coast on the Wirral is reporting heavy snow now settling readily even on roads. A short while ago they had nothing
Meanwhile here it's about to reach 10c lol.
Had frost before it rained on it this morning
-
From last September they have offered it as a replacement, its the part #7346.174.
I haven't seen any in the wild yet though and its probably going to be £150+ in the UK going by the fact the standard replacement is £120.
That's interesting I didn't know that and would certainly like the higher spec sensor.. but not sure I'd pay that price for it (unless mine failed anyway and there were no much cheaper homebrew ones around). I think I have been lucky on the temperature front, the two SHT11 sensors I've had agree within 0.1c of each other, but my current one reads a bit high on humidity apart from not going above 97 or 98%. Dew-point is often up to 2C above the Exeter Airport MetO station.
I did get a custom SHT15 (actually SHT75) from Ebay to replace a failed sensor in my old (backup) ISS, which is usually 0.1c above the current SHT11 but think I was unlucky as its humidity doesn't go above 93%... and I since realised there was a better potential source of a homebrew sensor in the UK.
Another thing I want to do is solve the problem of the fan not running some of the time. Feeding a constant AC supply is unlikely to be practical with me so am thinking of carefully 'modifying' the radiation shield to make it less enclosed for when the fan ain't running.. but not sure how sensible that is and not sure what else I can do.
-
It has to be 2010 for me even though after the 26th was a bit rubbish.
6+ inches of snow still lying on Christmas day (not really melted much since the 20th had around 25cm, just compacted a bit perhaps).
The coldest temp I've ever recorded at -14.0c on Christmas morning with and 100% sparkling blue sky and sunshine with a -1.6c max.
Then the 2nd coldest min at -12.7c on Boxing day before the temp jumped above freezing in the afternoon as the southerly breeze arrived.
-
2
-
-
It has. The silly blowtorch scenarios are gone and in its place we have a Christmas Day cold northerly followed by a re-load starting at T192 with a superb potential setup, the effect of which you can see at T216 which is an outstanding outstanding chart by any standards.
Assuming we now see GFS / UKMO etc being right then what will happen from here is that the ECM 48 hours interlude will shrink in line with GFS. They have massively backed down.
Game very very very much on folks
This is just my view but having watched all model runs in recent days I would definately not say the ECM has backed down.
It is still showing similar to what has been consistently advertised by its several recent runs, i.e a brief NW/N interlude around christmas, before a milder few days and a west based -NAO leads to a potential northerly later on.
Meanwhile the GFS has at time flip-flopped between northerlies with sub -10c uppers to minimal or no northerlies and Bartlett highs.. I think the Parallel has been quite consistent with a northerly but with considerable variation and not every run.
The GFS etc often were showing the northerly drift on Christmas day to be the start of a more potent northerly with no, or nearly no mild sector/interlude, which was first picked up solidly by the ECM if I recall correctly.
The later timeframe charts have shifted around a little, and the ECM this morning not as good as tonight with it looking more like a northerly toppler than a proper Greeny high, but differences at day 10? well blow me.
ECM 12z yesterday T+240:
Today T+216
Some notable differences there especially in the important Greenland area but a general theme of a northerly of sorts, not too bad for day-10
00z runs:
Yesterday: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014121900/ECH1-240.GIF?00
Today: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014122000/ECH1-216.GIF?00
Some shift but again not bad at all.
Of course the milder interlude before that, after a brief NW incrusion of cooler air around Christmas day has been consistently modelled.
GFS t+240 yesterday:
Also a very nice northerly set up there, but is it consistent?
GFS 12z today at t+216
Err... opps.
yesterday's GFS 00z: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014121900-0-240.png?0
today's GFS 00z: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014122000-0-216.png?0
Perhaps more agreement in the 00z's there, on a not very favourable pattern at that timeframe, but still some quite major differences.
It feels like the ECM perhaps comes in for too much criticism at times, because it is just about the top model on day 6 verification stats, it seems some expect it not to change out to the end of the run.
Of course I don't pretend to know which model will be right, and if the ECM is consistently wrong then that aint good.. but from the consistency of the models at the moment to me the ECM appears to be living up to its reputation.. that's just my opinion of course.
Talking about todays 12z's, I'd actually prefer the ECM to be correct, as its T+240 chart looks a lot better than the GFS, even if we have to wait a little longer than the brief northerly on the GFS.
Edit: sorry if a little late to this discussion, or if the mods wanted to move things on, took a little longer to compile this post than I thought.
-
7
-
-
The ECM and UKMO for the positions of the low near Iceland and the High over France at T+144 aren't really that different.. though the ECM is stronger with the low.
ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
GFS(P):http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1441.gif
If you open the links in tabs and flick between them,It is the GFS/GFS(P) that look more different to me, so I woudn't be too quick to dismiss the ECM, though I wouldn't dismiss the GFS and paralell either.
UKMO perhaps a middle ground between the ECM and GFS(P). The high near Greenland is more similar to the GFS than the ECM though.
Looking at the change from the previous frame I am struggling to tell whether I think the UKMO would get the low east of us to give some kind of northerly when the GFS does, or do something more like the ECM.
Edit: ECM finishes in a nice way anyway. This afternoon it does feel like we will get some kind of northerly anyway whether it is delayed by a few days or not.. hopefully.
-
I was going to say this last night but was a little confused then as to why there was so much surprise that a model disagreed with others at days 9/10 as if it had suddenly become the reliable timeframe, and I didn't really see what was weird/odd about the t+216 ECM last night as in it won't or hasn't before occurred synoptically.
Can anything be discounted 100% unless there is a clear glitch or the models physics/maths is broken? It does seem it might not have been too far wrong sadly, though we can't really say that yet at such a timeframe.
The GEM has an annoying habit of predicting warmer 850mb temperatures than what actually verify,even at short timescales,so as a result is not on my christmas card list.
Is the light blue the parallel run (I was under that impression before), in which case it is doing slightly worse on average than the current GFS?
-
1
-
-
Last night there was a -10 showing up in the ENS for 2M temps in central England.
Now there is a -13.
I wonder if we can go lower than that on the next set?
Updated AO forecast 18thDec:
Equally there are a couple +13 ensembles. Sorry lol
Quite a nice downward trend though which is what matters for this range, amongst the uncertainty.
Oddly there seem to be 2 operational, control and mean lines (and perhaps 2 of each ensemble?) on that chart
-
1
-
-
I'm not too concerned yet though I never got ecstatically excited about FI charts showing varying depths of cold. Parallel still shows a northerly anyway.
I do think a few posts I read earlier this morning were a bit OTT though, talk of the paralell 00z run being a contender 1963, making January 2010 seem tropical, rivalling December 2010, challenging the all time UK temp record, and being 'the best snow chart since the internet was formed' and the country would be shutting down
I take it some didn't see some of the charts predicted or that verified in 2010, or 'That ECM'.. lol.
Although it was quite impressive we've had much longer spells of deep cold than the GFS(P) showed (it only 6 days of deeper northerly cold really (-7 to -12c uppers)), especially in 1963 lol, and uppers near -20c in the past.
-
1
-
-
Temp is still creeping up tonight, 13.0c now.
Lol
Though that's based on the very specific detail of two of those shortwaves/channel lows giving lying snow to the SW and winds falling light, very reliable at t+276..
-
Cam 1 looks very nice at the moment with the glow increasing as it gets dark and blowing snow like steam in the foreground
-
Same weather as at Mapants place and also 12.2c, not sure the rest will be the same though lol
Nice yesterday morning with fog in the Otter valley (first 3 pics) and over towards Exeter (other pics), before it turned cloudy later.
-
4
-
-
Have we hit the peak of the GFS tease yet?
When was that last time this happened?
That's based on the GFS(P) 00z having a fair bit of lying snow at the time from the storm it showed on the 28th
Not sure exactly how much though as there doesn't seem to be a scale bar anywhere
-
1
-
-
MattHugo81
Incredibly all 51 EC ENS members between 24th - 26th Dec develop low pressure to the NW with a mild SW'ly and not a hint of cold weather!
ECM is notorious for op led ensemble bias. It tends to do this when there is uncertainty in the system. I would wait for at least two more runs before I took it at face value (two as it usually backs down in instalments).
That's odd as the mean is an improvement from recent ones I've seen with certainly some colder options likely in there for what it's worth
In comparison to recent times when the means have looked quite mild and I've thought there's perhaps been too much hope on a few ensembles/FI GFS op runs
Edit: see I was beaten to it several times lol
-
1
-
-
Ski resorts in Scotland are open. Had snow on the ground here a few days and Dec looking to come in lower than average CET.
Hardly a "fail" is it?I don't think it will come in below average now, looks like rising above average this week (risk of a record high daily CET this week) and probably won't fall below average again looking at the models. Probably only near average in the south this weekend too.
I do hope it isn't quite as hard to get cold to the south as some models suggest, especially if the Azores high ridges close to us, I don't want the weather to go all boring now I have some time to enjoy it lol.
Well to be fair, I see nothing interesting in Atlantic storms. Just low after low bringing heavy rain and wind. To get the Azores High ridging up to the UK during the winter months is much more rare than low pressure off of the Atlantic is.
Nothing wrong with that of course but I do sometimes get the impression that we aren't supposed to like stormy weather or find it interesting for the potential disruption it causes, which feels a bit odd on a weather forum (also a bit rich if anyone who likes cold and snow says that - last winter had the lowest 'excess' winter deaths on record)
A proper active Atlantic pattern usually has greater sunshine amounts too due to a more turbulent air mass with more PM air at times, unlike a constant mild cloudy drizzly TM flow over the top of a Bartlett. For example last winter was actually sunnier than average for most of England.
Though I can see why they could get tedious especially after last winter.
-
Tonight's ECM doesn't get -5c uppers near the south of the UK at the weekend, and those couple of days may not actually be far off average looking at that before mild weather returns. The BBC forecasts 'most likely' maximum for Exeter does not drop below 9c..
and after that I hope it isn't going to be as hard to get cold to the south as some model runs are suggesting.. especially if the Azores high nudges close to the south.. I don't want the weather to go all boring now I have a chance to enjoy it more.
The models are pretty bad for wintry weather tbh, I'm seeing more Bartletts or similar mild flows than cold synoptics actually covering the UK even in FI.. Both the GFS and ECM ensemble means offer this too... Of course further down the line things may evolve into a better situation if we're lucky but it isn't really showing strongly in the models yet.but we are told we now have a warming climate which we didnt have over those centuries
The CET record would suggest we do
Amongst the most boring and bland charts I have seen in winter on show tonight. Mild, dry, probably cloudy and little else going on. Could well easily be looking well into January for any real cold now. Its clear that the Azores/Iberian high is set to become a major control on our weather. At least last year was exciting if not snowy. This winter is just completely boring so far for the majority of us.
Last winter was fascinating in terms of the sheer power of mother nature, the ferocity of winds, the relentless rain. Yes it was damaging but not like this snoozefest.
Quite agree in terms of the outlook, I think December has been ok so far with a fair few sunny days and some night frosts, but most of the charts don't look pretty..
-
First -3c of the year back home, -3.5c now. Will melt by dawn though..
-
As others say probably not, only seen it like you mention with embedded cold air.
Had wintry showers from the south off the channel as the low centre moved west on the 3rd Feb 2009.
Also on occasions i.e 18th Jan 2013, 12th Jan 2010 a front bumping into entrenched cold air giving snow on SE winds though due to my low altitude and proximity to the coast these have been sleet at low level back home but settling snow on surrounding hills. In the past this has given some notable blizzards to the SW.
A question I was thinking earlier is have we ever had snow from westerly winds? (not a northerly that turns more westerly over the UK), i.e an intense cold pool from NE Canada or south of Greenland makes its way across with still say -8c/-10c uppers and snow showers widely to low levels. I know we can get around -5c uppers and wintry showers for some on west/NW flows from that area like recently.
-
2
-
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
That should help our cold prospects though.
Short term pain for long term gain as they say..