Evening thunder
-
Posts
4,872 -
Joined
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Evening thunder
-
-
It's certainly going to be an interesting one to watch!
I have not actually experienced 35C before.. though I may not quite be in the very hottest area I'm not quite sure how I will deal with it being in a top floor room that can get warm even in normal weather.
-
The 10am forecast on News 24 was pushing for the chance of 35C in the SE tomorrow, depending on how clear the sky is (and 40C around the Paris area!)
-
1
-
-
The 10am forecast on news 24 was pushing potentially 35C in the SE tomorrow (and 40C around Paris!), as well as possibly locally severe storms from N Wales through Lake District area into Scotland
-
I'm sorry but to me, for most People Friday's potential has disappeared pretty much. The nmm is awful unless your in the far SE. Can't see it changing back much now.
That's just based on one GFS run though (which the NMM is based on), the Met Office likes the idea of locally severe thunderstorms Friday night
ECM precip charts shows some activity into the south on Thursday (interestingly a clump of showery goes through Wales), and then breaks out thunderstorms for the SE and especially central northern/NE England on Friday night. Obviously this detail will likely change and the GFS could be right though..
-
ECM looks very hot on Wednesday.. I wonder if somewhere could scrape a 35C if that chart verified as shown? Maybe 34C a more likely bet
-
Temps weren't great today and after a brief plume weds through Sat things will settle down ....yes I know NAO is pressure driven but negative with gh suggests mid to late July wet west to nw....NAO about to go negative along with jma monthly suggesting brief plume then return to warm or near normal but with wet spells..as per cc prognosis...July will not be a heat fest that's for sure
ECM monthly goes for anticyclonic settled July though supported by the Atlantic SST pattern and and the Met are going for warmer than average conditions persisting, supported by the Atlantic SST pattern and the MJO, so not all models/signals go for this cooler/wetter pattern
GFS limits the real heat to Thurs-Sat unfortunately for those heat lovers although Tuesday and Wednesday are warm. We still have a front moving through Wednesday night which looks thundery and then the breakdown front on Sat or Sun..
Wednesday is definitely hot on the GFS, more so than Thursday
-
2
-
-
It's interesting that now some models are moving away from anything prolonged in terms of proper heat, the BBC 5-10 day forecast which I believe must come from the Met Office ensembles is the hottest yet, with a mean of 32C on Thursday and still 30C on Saturday, with 29/28 after that and easterly surface winds... suggesting no break-through of any Atlantic air.
Apparently the top end of possible temps from the 4th-6th is 39C.. probably a bit too extreme
-
I was expecting it to be a lot worse reading these comments tbh.. still looks pretty hot and we still get 2 bites of the 20C uppers cherry
Edit: 36C in Kent on Friday so actually just about the hottest surface temp chart I've seen from the GFS lol
Obviously variable inter-run detail and at that range such detail will change though, so we could easily not see such temps or 20C uppers
-
Looking at the BBC's 5-10 day forecast which I am assuming comes from Met Office model ensembles so hopefully isn't off topic,
These have been consistently upgrading with the mean now reaching 30C for London and the most extreme ensemble(s) showing 37C.. For Paris the mean high is 36C one day with the most extreme ensembles showing 43C!
2.6C above its record high.. earlier this morning I noticed the top extreme was showing a slightly unbelievable 45C.. but I'd probably question the sanity of that ensemble member. -
1
-
-
The last time the 20c 850 got into the UK was for a few hours in August 2003, this scraped the se corner so its a rare thing to happen. The ECM gets the 22c just into the south coast and widely 21's right up into northern England which would be stunning for the UK.
According to the archive charts it was over part of the south on all days from the 5th-10th, except for the 8th. on the 6th was up to 22C, while the record broke under slack conditions on the 10th
However I don't know of any other events with more than brief flirtations with it and the sun is also a bit stronger now than August, so if we do get the 20C uppers covering a decent portion of England and clear skies I think we'd probably see the mid-30's in some places.
Brief plumes with slightly lower uppers produced highs such as 33C at the end of June 2011.
-
1
-
-
I don't do too well in hot weather, my ideal 'everyday' summer day is around 24c with a nice breeze, however I'd like a couple days of proper 30C+ heat just for the interest and to experience it, and even though I'd find it uncomfortable I'm thinking of staying in my uni house in Egham next week to experience hotter conditions than down here lol! Although I'd have to see how that goes as my top floor room can get too warm even in normal weather..
-
1
-
-
Met Office has the thunder symbol across Lincolnshire
They know how it works now.
-
1
-
-
Looking at the GFS 06z... all I can say is "HOORAY FOR THE SCANDY HIGH!"
Scandy high: usually good whatever time of year, Azores high: usually bad whatever time of year (at least for anything interesting), and my location is relatively sheltered from NW winds
-
I did wonder about that, looking for clues the tree at the bottom right is bare so perhaps an older photo (unless it's dead)?
-
1
-
-
Last year was our warmest on record in our so called warming climate
-
2
-
-
Was 1998 an El Nino year? If so, I'm pretty sure June was the worst of the summer months (even though we even managed a brief plume then). The best spell of the summer was in early August from what I remember.
I believe so though not sure if El Nino had ended by summer without looking in detail, it was towards the end of it rather than the beginning I think but one can hope something similar happens this year in terms of June having been the poorer month
-
Are things just the same as in the past and the models would have had such a westerly bias then, or has our climate changed somehow with less/shorter lived plumes, which the models don't pick up until the reliable timeframe? :/
I have noted a theme for intense/record heat down towards southern Europe/Iberia at times this year.. in May even Valencia on the east coast recorded 40C one day, 17C above average which smashed it's record for that month.
Apparently the Atlantic SST pattern is thought to correlate with above average pressure over Northern Europe (read it in a Met Office contingency planners forecast).. and El Nino seems to have some correlation with a poorer June but better July/August..
so my best guess for summer is still a better July and/or August, and if the heat remains down south it may be drawn our way at some point? but knowing us, perhaps not...
-
Everyone to their own but I fail to see why anyone would want this cool weather to end and be replaced with 'thunderstorms'.Some lovely sunny summer days for me thanks!!
Because some people have an interest in weather
Usually decent thunderstorms occur in the afternoon/evening or overnight after fine warm-hot sunny summer days, and only on a minority of days. Ignoring the storms I'd far rather that than cool and cloudy/drizzly (though it hasn't been that bad down here recently)
-
1
-
-
It hasn't seemed too bad here to me, I have been away the last week but noted several days above 20C in Egham and one reached 26C in London (i.e similar to/slightly higher than Fuerteventura where I was). Now there has boring weather if you have an interest in weather not just warmth and sun.
Same back home in Devon, 6 of the last 9 days above 20C and June running around average for the first half, also dry. It does seem further north has faired worse though.
Dreadful isn't it, I'm sorry, the UK has the worst weather in the world. Being a runner too, if it's not raining it's windy..constantly windy. Someone turn the fan off!!
It really doesn't though, especially if you're a runner
-
Lol, models have finally realised I will be out of the country from Wednesday.
-
2
-
-
Some nice altocumulus here:
Not feeling too warm here with the wind off the sea but that doesn't matter for mid-level instability.
I'm expecting any storms to be further east than here anyway but I am heading back to Egham this evening..
-
I think it's about the detail really, this set up had warm uppers circling round the high with the cooler northerlies further east
It could probably happen this year if it wanted to, though perhaps slightly tempered by cooler SSTs to our west
-
Based on that it does seem El Nino has some correlation with poorer/cooler June's but a better July and August.
-
1
-
-
I wonder how things will unfold.. BBC/Met precip charts seem to break out more normal looking showers in central/southern parts before storms explode over the far east tomorrow morning..
2.6C above its record high.. earlier this morning I noticed the top extreme was showing a slightly unbelievable 45C.. but I'd probably question the sanity of that ensemble member. 
Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Looking at Sat24 there's definitely an interesting area of instability including an active storm moving towards S/SE England which I didn't expect to see this evening.. Perhaps a trough feature/disturbance that wasn't really picked up by the models?
One to keep an eye on and shows unexpected developments can happen, I remember last year much of the SE had a great line of storms one night when it was only really the SW that was forecast to get anything.
However the CAPE shown on the GFS is highest over the SW and moving NNW, different to this clump of instability.. not sure how it will fare when/if it reaches the SE?