Evening thunder
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Posts posted by Evening thunder
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Erm, to be very clear: OPI hasn't been peer-reviewed. To say it's 'poor' is pre-empting rigorous independent assessment and unfairly dismissing work by it's authors. It may or may not be onto something, but for now we can't assess this in any informed fashion, so it's not factored into key seasonal prognostics.
Quite agree Ian, assuming this refers to my post I have edited it as I don't think I made it very clear.. I wasn't calling anything poor myself or referring to the OPI at that point, just mentioning that some members of the forum had previously described the Met Office's longer term outlook/contingency planners forecast effort as 'pretty poor' for not taking account of the OPI and some other indexes, which I didn't think was fair.
Apologies for any off topic/unsuitable material, just trying to clarify things here so I am not misunderstood, and before was trying to show mild as well as cold weather was showing in the models, averaging out to around average..
Edit: admittedly this is from my southern England viewpoint and for the north things trend more to the cold site due to a predominance of polar/Arctic maritime air.
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No mild weather hmm I am forecast a max of 13C on Wednesday, and a min of 12C Wednesday night... (Exeter).
It may not last long, and may not affect the north so much, but it has as much place in discussion as brief NW'erly shots too. Alternating milder sectors and cooler PM flows describes things quite well I thought.
Personally I'm glad to see mild interludes being shortened and any greater predominance of PM air with potential clear frosty weather as winds fall slack.
Good to see a post from Ian too explaining that the OPI is not yet factored into their longer range/seasonal forecasts (why should it be, would be very hard to justify a failed forecast based on using an at present un-peer reviewed index). Funnily enough despite for some reason being described as 'pretty poor' by a certain well known member and others before winter started, The Met Office's thoughts for December at least look like being pretty close to the mark. One can hope their latest thoughts for the New Year will be too
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Already recorded the same number of frosts this meteorological winter as I did last winter and we are only in the first week and also with lower minima at that.
-3.0C
A minimum of -2C here, that's colder than anything last winter, it never dropped below freezing last year.
Absolutely gorgeous day here with sparkling blue skies.
Kind of surprising how few/none air frosts some had even though it was continuously mild. in Devon I recorded 17 air frosts last winter (though we are in a relatively frost prone valley). -3.8c in December was the lowest, Jan and Feb had lows of -2.7c and -2.3c which was poor (though no worse for absolute minima than Jan/Feb 2013's -2.4c and -2.4c funnily enough). November 2013 had -3.9c, the lowest of the season.
This mornings min at home of -2.9c beat anything in January or February last winter, though not December (or November).
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Didn't expect to see that even my hometown at only about 50m high has light snow symbols on Friday now..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcj8trhhr#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1417737600 (watch that change as soon as I post this)
Have my doubts though
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That is a very nice example.
A small one of these formed on my local river in Devon in 2009 when I recorded -9c:
Then in December 2010 I personally saw one on Christmas day at -14c, although frozen back into surrounding ice, several miles downstream on the same river behind my house...
(possibly other small attempts in there too)
I do get the feeling they aren't quite as rare as some articles made it sound though, as you suggest.
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Looks like some white stuff may arrive this week for the top the top of Dartmoor at least..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcj0ku2kw#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1417824000'Heavy snow' symbols in the early hours of Saturday at -1/-2c
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Thought I'd start making guesses again this year but still managed to be late..
a rather average or slightly above 5.1c please, may have to wait till January for a below average month.
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Had 14.9c back home yesterday, 12.7c today but down to 3.2c now.
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Amazes me how a continent 3000 miles across can have snow from coast to coast and yet we struggle to get a fall to cover more than a few counties.
Over there it crosses huge mountain ranges, here it can't seem to make it over the Pennines.
Obviously lake effect plays a major role but we are surrounded, certainly on two sides by thousands of miles of water with some of it coming right from the pole and still we can't get the goods, even in moderate amounts.
I guess it's because they get cold lasting long enough to eventually have a fall, and lows/fronts that give wide-scale precipitation don't so often drag in warmer air from the warm seas like they usually do here.
We can get quite deep lake effect falls occasionally.. For example Late November/Early December 2010, up to 1m observed depths at 30 secs into this forecast:
Of course we need to get the cold first which can be rather hard...
Apparently SE Dartmoor had a level fall of 6 feet once, the highest recorded in the UK.
Likely to up to 100" of snow in North Buffalo by the time the next storm has moved through. I would advise any active weather fan to check out this thread from the American version of Netweather - Americanwx.
Check out this thread from about Page 4-5-6 onwards, it's worth 20 minutes of any snow fans time!! To give people an idea.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-6
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Remarkable scenes... Imagine how annoyed you would be if you were in the 4-8 inch zone just outside that 70+ inch zone lol...
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Wow. Good pics there ET, to show how bad it was. A few folks I know were up at 5am, they said (even though it was dark) the rain was so heavy, it was visibly white outside. My rain gauges certainly showed how heavy the rain had been. Thankfully, no scenes like yours. Hope there's not too much damage?!
Thanks, don't think there's any real damage apart from a very muddy road/front gardens of course. Our neighbours got their car and van moved thankfully.
The stream sometimes gets blocked where it goes under the road just down from our house which can make it worse and may have happened to some extent this time.
July 2012 was a bit higher as the stream got blocked then, and November 2012 similar to this time even without getting blocked.
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Here's a few pics of the result of the downpours yesterday(Saturday) evening back home, sent by dad.
Manual gauge read 42.2mm, worked out about 20mm fell in an hour, 33mm in about 4 hours.
That falling on small steep stream catchments draining down into the river valley can result in the below pictures:
(House was fine, floor level a foot or two higher than water level)
This is the 24 hour accumulation up to 6pm today, the small dot is my postcode and the small stream drains from the east where the darker pixels are.
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I'm glad I don't live around Telford. Oh and also Aberdeen.
Unfortunately this blocking of the Atlantic/Sceuro high many have been chasing may just bring a spell of grey grot to us, with less sunshine and variability/interest than a mixed Atlantic spell with intervals of PM air would likely provide (at least to my meteorological interests).
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Torrential downpour at home has given 13mm in the last 25 mins or so, with 19.0mm since 6:20pm and rapidly rising (recorded on a slightly under-reading Davis VP2),
Edit: over 17mm in the last hour, 25mm today.
Parents just texted to say the stream is flooded across the road and is in the front garden, did warn them it might though (that's higher than it got last winter). The interesting stuff always happens when I'm not home!
(These figures are likely to be a slight under-read too).
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I think some would do well to remember November 2009... and what followed.
In contrast November last year was actually slightly colder and drier than average.. before the Atlantic went into overdrive in December.
So you could say a wet/mild November this year would be rather different to last year.. of course what follows could be the same as last winter, but perhaps we don't have such grounds to suggest it will be based on similarities with how last Autumn evolved.
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I like the convenience of a automatic rain gauge but would never trust them for accuracy. I can only trust the reading when I can see the rain that's fallen in the manual gauge with my own eyes. Am a bit of a luddite though, even my temp/pressure/humidity etc is through analog instruments!
EA flood map http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/142151.aspx
Something I have learnt in recent years, this particular one seems to have a habit of wondering off calibration after a while! (whereas my old one was a bit better). Therefore I got a manual gauge and adjust the rainfall totals according to that.
I like it to see exactly when the rain fell, and with what intensity, and see nice graphs, though need the manual for accurate amounts. As I am at uni I need both really, for back up purposes and also to correct rainfall totals to the right day (as my parents can't always read the gauge at 9am, midnight, or whatever meteorological day I choose!) So I work out % the difference in overall totals and multiply the Davis' daily totals by that. Might not be 100% but the best I can do.
This was the river behind our house yesterday thanks to my dad:
Though only on 'flood alert' level and it usually reaches that height a couple times a year, or many times in 2012 and last winter lol. On its way down now: http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels/120722.aspx?stationId=3237
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My parents have read the manual gauge which recorded 50.6mm over the last 2 days.
Davis recorded 43.4mm so as I thought it is under-reading.
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A very heavy showery band back home a few hours ago and again just now.
Weather station just recorded a rainfall rate of 101mm/hr. That shot the daily total (since midnight) up to 30.0mm (surprisingly the first day this year over 25mm).Total since yesterday evening 40.4mm (that will be a slight underestimate compared to the manual gauge).
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25.2mm so far yesterday evening and today back home according to the Davis VP2, though it is under-reading a bit atm so it may be closer to 30mm once the manual gauge is read.
Models seem to have downgraded rainfall totals for Friday though.. and the BBC charts don't want to give us much at all.
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Colder than expected back home the last two nights, -0.4c yesterday morning (0.1c off the lowest this Autumn) and 1.2c early this morning.
As mentioned above looks like a wet week coming. We haven't been as wet as some through October and November (back home in Devon), with 101.4mm in October and 39mm so far in November (before today).
We had missed much of the heavier rain so far this month (apart from Saturday), but seems to be changing as a southerly flow with these systems is a good direction to get higher totals there (as opposed to SW/W where you get more of a rain shadow effect from Dartmoor)
Not much happening in comparison up here in Egham this week though.
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A min of -0.5c back home before cloud increased with the approaching front.
An interesting feature there this morning is local temperature contrasts, with mild air on a southerly flow over-riding cold air still sat in the valleys and low areas as shown by Weather Underground stations:
Some stations have shown very sudden temp rises of upto 7/8 degrees when the surface cold pool of air was disturbed this morning, something I've recorded before and may do shortly though my station is still on 3c atm.
Edit: sudden temp rise started at home now, up to 6.2c
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If we do get a cold spell in November please don't think it means the rest of Winter will be cold.
Back in Nov 07 or 08, i think, we had snow in the south west in mid November, after a long run of mild winters. In fact the week was cold.
I thought "oh maybe this winter will be cold and snowy, after the long run of mild winters"
We didn't see hardly any snow or cold spells for the rest of that winter.
IMO a cold spell or snap in November means absolutely zilch all to how the rest of winter pans out.
Indeed, and neither should mild/warmth now make people think prospects are poorer for this winter.
Tomorrow's weather, if happening a day later, could encroach on the November temperature record. Looking at this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes (click the temperature by month tab), the current November record of 21.7c occurred on the th in 1946... many know what kind of winter followed that. However that should not be taken to mean we are more likely to get a colder/snowier winter either.
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Forgot to add: there was some quite bad flooding in Exeter http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co.uk/Breaking-Storm-leads-flash-flooding-Exeter/story-23212477-detail/story.html
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One smaller river near Exeter has had an interesting response to the storm earlier:
http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels/120726.aspx?stationId=3249
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Anything going on in the Exeter area? My lightning detector has picked up 3 strikes in the last 10mins.
Sorry make that 8!!!
Yeah quite an active storm near Exeter moving NE of there now, typically I'm at uni in Egham, Surrey or I'd have had a good view. Another decent event missed then, happens all 3 Autumns while at uni now while we get less here in Egham.
Southwest and Central Southern England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
-2.7c back home this morn, not quite the coldest this month/year which was -2.9c last Saturday.
A max of 7.1c and already below freezing there so I wonder if it could go lower before it rises towards dawn due to increasing cloud/wind
Up here in Egham a lovely sunny pure blue sky day after a slight frost.