Evening thunder

Forget the Med, head to the Baltic for sea temps well into the 20's, and temps on land approacing the low 30's. Lapland forecast to be 31C the day after tomorrow: http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/, as this persistent blocking high pattern continues to pump the heat and warmth over them. Even during our very warm/hot spell Scandinavia was beating us, and their summer is kind of blowing ours out of the water. Feels kind of deflating to get the best we have managed to be beaten bettered by at least parts of every single mainland European country at that time On the other hand our summer certainly aint been bad (and perhaps more comfortable), and in some other years we would probably have a better summer than them. Not really a model moan but not sure where to put this.

Been some great CB's visible to my west through to north from the end of that Exeter-Cardiff line line. Looks like it will just slip past me though as so often seems to happen with these.

With mean uppers of 12C into the SE I'd have thought the GFS ensembles are at least hinting at a possible plume there. Not all members showing it but some probably are. Also the ensemble 2m temps often underestimate maxima due to their low resolution (both GFS and ECM). 12C uppers could easily bring high 20's in places with enough sunshine. The GEM seems to change and has seemed a tad more unreliable than other models to me, so I look at the ECM/UKMO/GFS before it, although the GFS aint always great (like them all at times). As posted above the UKMO which is on average a bit more accurate than the GEM does support some kind of plume And of course shows the omnipresent Scandinavian and Finnish warmth/heat and high pressure. Time to wait for the ECM.

We has some mainly moderate rain for a while, now unfortunately it has turned into one of my least favourite types of day.. persistent light and pretty pathetic rain and no sun all day. None of the heavy bits/showers on radar have hit us really. Total 6.6mm so far today.

Another above average temp day (max 23.2c) bringing it to at least 13 in a row (or if you include one near-marginally above average max, 17 in a row). That may change tomorrow with the first significant rain for a while, though quite local variations in totals likely and it could pass mainly to my west.One brief shower around 14:30 brought a whopping 0.2mm.

Been a good July here too, mean max 23.3c so far which is at least 2C above average. Reasonable thundery activity though nothing especially intense here (and I missed some!) Been a bit different to have the recent 'cooler fresher' weather to give still above average temperatures, in contrast to the 2007-2012 summers (although it will cool a bit more in the next few days). Sunday was the coolest, still reaching 23.3c despite a lot of high cloud, Monday 24.3c, yesterday 25.5c and today 24.2c. Last night was quite cool here falling to 8.8c despite yesterday's 25.5c max. When I woke briefly around 5:30 there was shallow mist/fog of the type that the top halfs of trees stick out above.

I've heard it all now..

Lol yesterday thunderstorms developed around here the only day I wasn't here, then today my uni gets clobbered. Nice walk and day at the beach though, get back to find my station peaked briefly at 28.6c making it the warmest day of the year.. Had some quite large bubbling cumulus build up inland, and a shower formed north of here (drove through the edge dropping a friend back home).Could see the anvil of the Dorset storm when driving back, though not from home as there's a hill to the east.

Just had 26.6c here! thought it would be a touch cooler at this stage today but it's up there with yesterday so far.

Actually managed to make the warmest day of the year yesterday with a 28.1c max. Then after I go out towards North Devon, a line of storms forms near home.. couldn't make it up really lol. The models and forecasts didn't really go for that yesterday so wasn't really expecting it. Thankfully it wasn't a direct hit with no rain actually falling here though close enough with lots of rumbling apparently. Interesting temp drop from the outflow around 5pm too: As for today already up to 24.5c here now.

It would be nice if, as we didn't get the storms, we could also not get their detrital high cloud on what would be the hottest day of the year. Hey ho it tends not to work that way. Sunshine notably weak and hazy with the temperature at 26.6c and struggling to rise nowIt will probably clear when the sea breeze kicks in later to cool it down a touch anyway.Temp now down to 26.1c, literally just north of the sun's position in the sky is clearer blue of course, but not coming this way.

Have heard a few rumbles from those cells but a tiny amount compared to the strikes detected. Maybe closer strikes or +ve CG's. It's kind of agonising watching them, if only those slow moving cells could be coming this way.

Very nice evening really with it being 24.2c currently, some altocumulus increasing from the east maybe indicative of a small chance of a shower or something thundery tonight. The sunlight and atmosphere does have that 'warm/hot' look to it, if you know what I mean.. slightly less strong and yellowish/orange sunlight than you'd get from a fresh Atlantic/polar maritime airmass, even though visibility's good. Forecast minima for places around here are 19c tonight, something I'd have thought would normally be reserved for higher 850's such as 15C+, I think increasing cloud from the forecast disturbance will be partly responsible for holding temperatures up. I wonder what an easterly with over 15C uppers could do as has happened occasionally.

Max of 27.5c here so just beating yesterdays to the warmest of the year. This is still being beaten by the temps in Scandinavia though..lol

27.3c yesterday here, spent a lush day on the beach. The sea felt a bit odd when swimming with warm pockets, was warmer in the top 1-2 feet and colder below as the sun was warming the top layers but it was calm so the warmth wasn't being mixed. Already 24.7c now.

Interesting to see another timelapse of this storm. This is my first post since Saturday but I also have a timelapse of this which clearly shows a rotating updraught/wall cloud, as I ended up chasing this storm to all the way past Oxford! My account of things is I chased the line of storms that went into Dorset and caught the last storm. Then noticed clearing skies so went up the A303 just past Stonehenge and up towards Swindon to see if any surface based storms would form and follow on from the previous ones. By that time the storm was developing so followed it (at first stayed ahead of it) from there. It was producing near constant thunder and saw some lightning, but It's right move caught me out a little though so was often on the N side when would have preferred to be on the SE'ern side. I realised this and drove east towards Oxford, apart from one time I was just following road signs (A40/Oxford) without a destination set on my satnav, yet I somehow ended up going westbound on a duel carriageway away from the storm! that cost me a bit of time. Then drove east towards Oxford into very heavy rain out the back side of the storm (including the sun shining with a rainbow at the same time), took the A34 NE from Oxford through torrential rain on the northern side with quite a bit of surface water on the roads but managed to punch through the rain and get ahead of the storm briefly. Ended up a few miles east of Bicester and where I shot this brief timelapse video, before the wind picked up and blew my camera off the only place to balance it (also the wind moved it not me):http://youtu.be/HGWx63ioA00 A bit wonky as could only balance it that way. Note the Gopro's wide angle view makes it look further away than it was. Also the exposure isn't quite right, to the right was heavy rain/hail shafts that don't show. I could immediately see it was probably a supercell when I eventually found a place to stop there (hedges etc often annoying away from busier roads/houses/trees), with clearly visible rotation and quite rapid cloud motion too. Then it passed over with torrential rain and hail up to about ~1cm size, however I drove to my south/SW where I had seen very heavy rain/hail shafts quickly drop down a bit like a small microburst, and found hailstones up to 10p (about 1 inch) diameter scattered amongst smaller ones on the ground. Found a few smallish branches down (as well as leaves presumably from hail) in one place showing evidence for stronger gusts. I have more video including the hail/torrential rain to edit and upload at some point. Some pics I took: South of Swindon: NE of Swindon: Rotating wall cloud/updraught: As the storm moved away: Hail found slightly SW of where I filmed the rotation: The first time I've seen hail that size (even if the 10p sized stones were just found on the ground), and my first probable supercell. Makes the at time frustrating driving worth it.

Had a bit of thunder and lightning earlier, Nothing compared to many storms elsewhere as mainly infrequent as less instability than further east but nice to see and better than nothing. Enough rain to give a decent watering to things too.GFS looks to have downgraded and pushed todays CAPE east at the last minute.. May in part be due to more left over cloud being forecast by it. Oh well may have to see what elevated storms I can get if not much surface convection kicks off, though these could still be decent (slept last night instead of chasing storms east of here so I was able to chase today).

One to save? Gives a nice view I think

I should have clarified the western channel (south of Devon). There were a couple strikes near France earlier but nothing recently. As mentioned the strikes from the monster moving out of France moving more northwards or even NNW. This is when I wish I was back in the SE, even if my uni is not in it's path I could have easily driven into the path of this beast.

Some nice thundery looking Altocumulus Castellanus to the south but the showers in the channel are just that at the moment in the near non-existent CAPE environment as shown on the models.

Storms really firing in France now but at the moment they are tracking further east than BBC/MetO graphics suggest later or most models show, more in line with what I'd have naturally thought and the higher CAPE area. Of course more could well form later and track further west, I suppose that's the plan. There are a few showery bits coming north off Brittany though not that active atm. GFS now shows the heaviest precip near the SE coast anyway. Didn't get as much sleep as I'd liked last night and unable to today so may not be able to drive far enough to see good action tonight (assuming there's decent action around Hampshire/Wiltshire/IOW areas like many models suggest). Then tomorrow the GFS has shifted the high CAPE further away from here.. so harder to reach especially with first Saturday of the school holidays traffic.

In a way I'm a little confused about tonight offerings.. On the one hand the model runs e.g NMM 5km show not much CAPE getting past the IOW area:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071800/nmm-28-23-0.png?18-06http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071800/nmm-28-30-0.png?18-06 Estofex forecast backs this up with 50% lightning risk mainly over the SE. Yet the BBC graphics showed big thunderstorm clusters as far west as Cornwall/Wales.. and some other models have what looks like thundery outbreaks as far west as Devon/Cornwall. I'm thinking maybe there will be heavy downpours with some thunderstorms towards the western side, with the most intense storms and lightning activity further east? with other forcing/lifting mechanisms helping form the clusters further west (if this does actually happen) Also just noticed an orange weather warning from the Met Office which also covers my area! Though this could include heavy/torrential rain and high totals even if lightning is less prolific than further east. So not sure what to do.. would be prepared to drive east but the risk of something here complicates things. Think it may be worth it to have a better chance of seeing the really intense storms.

Had a small elevated thunderstorm about 9:30pm with some great, if mainly infrequent lightning. Then from midnight till about 1:30 I went to a viewpoint and was watching relatively frequent distant lightning, some bolts and CG's visible even when the storms were around the Bristol-Swindon area on radar! Also a cell formed to my west and suddenly 'turned on' with lightning for a bit before dying. But although we looked in a good spot, what we had was much less than places further west and especially many areas further east!In other news, it only reached 24.4c here today due to the onshore breeze, but it's still 21.7c here at gone 2:30am! as the wind is more easterly again. shame really that it's going to turn more southerly with 'cooler' (i.e 16-18c) air later tonight otherwise I could record a record high min.

Had a elevated storm earlier this evening, lightning mainly infrequent great bolts, pretty pink too. not much rain here. later went up to a viewpoint looking NE, recently got back. Was watching quite frequent distant flashes, and some bolts and occasional CG's from storms even when around the Bristol area! Then this cell fired to my west and 'turned on' suddenly producing lightning for a while before dying. Still the storm here was nothing compared to west earlier and east now, this was meant to be a western event not battering the SE and my uni..As long as the west can steal tomorrow night's events then it's fair perhaps! lol.. Won't work like that but definitely prepared to chase further east tomorrow night/Saturday..

Based on the radar at the moment I'm going through the gap where anything refuses to develop into a storm and sustain it'self. Just looked at thhe EURO4 model and it supports that conclusion too.. May have to drive then, but that aint as good as seeing a storm at your home or in your local area.