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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Evening thunder
    I do get the impression the best action will develop more north of here through Saturday, at least the surface based stuff. We may get something here but probably not as much potential for it to be strong, as it has had less chance to develop closer to the south coast, but who knows. It would be as per usual if home managed a decent light display from storms tomorrow night into Saturday, whereas here Egham manages to miss out on Saturday, though Friday night is perhaps the one time I may not want storms here, but I may be unable to chase for most of Saturday typically.
  2. Evening thunder
    Yeah that's true, main rain to our south perhaps. From what I can see it has a slight look of a decaying storm/downdraught raining out that may not produce any more thunder, though who knows.
  3. Evening thunder
    Aaand as if by magic the storm completely dies as it approaches Egham.. did get quite gusty with a little bit of hail.. Edit... oh cancel that just had what I think was loud thunder! though it sounded a bit different to usual.. and another minute of hail. Kind of odd with hail on and off (though not that heavy), so may be under an updraught.. though doesn't look especially promising and the updraught zone is moving off anyway.
  4. Evening thunder
    What's this, a thunderstorm heading my way? Will it survive or do the usual thing of dieing or avoiding Egham?
  5. Evening thunder
    Worth noting of the main models I've looked at the GFS seems to be the only model that doesn't bring another brief plume and potential thundery stuff on Monday/Tuesday next week, the ECM operational the only model that prolongs that into a proper heatwave. UKMO and GEM are in the middle with the brief plume scenario along with the ECM ensemble mean.
  6. Evening thunder
    Not on that chart though one for the night before did show almost 2000j/kg for you, but pointless worrying about the detail of charts that will definitely change in some way though.
  7. Evening thunder
    Just had a look at the ECM charts on Weather Underground, and for Saturday it shows CAPE building to 1800k/kg by 3pm (maybe higher by 6pm but that chart wasn't available) but here's some real storm porn.. on Tuesday the 10th, look at the scale (the colours chance), yes that's right, the ECM builds over 5000j/kg of CAPE in places!! The previous night had up to 3000j/kg of presumably ML Cape arriving from the continent. Very unlikely to occur at least to that level as it happens through the ECM's probably outlier heatwave solution next week, but fun to look at! Don't let the express get hold of this one!
  8. Evening thunder
    It is the GFS but the ensembles look pretty encouraging http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngCan't believe some were trying to proclaim summer was over or June would be worse than 2012, there's certainly no basis to that.
  9. Evening thunder
    Hard to say as I like things about all seasons, and most (at least summer/winter) can get me thinking this my favourite if they give the right weather types, though summer probably just about wins it for me at the moment. Autumn would probably be my least favourite, though I do find active Atlantic lows, leaf colours and the first frosts interesting.. Not really a fan of the dark nights drawing in these days.
  10. Evening thunder
    Well that would be a particularly ridiculous phrase to hear whoever it was coming from. The ECM ensembles don't look particularly cold at day 10 (on the 00z at least): Does seem to be hints of the trough backing west slightly.. possibly a mix of warmer plumes and cool scenarios making up that intermediate mean 850hpa temperature. Likely still unsettled there though, but that's not a disaster for me at least (admittedly I will be in the SE which would be one of the better off regions there) If it was winter people would be complaining how the trough to the west ruins it with a west based -ve NAO.
  11. Evening thunder
    Haha, haven't looked at everything but seems to me like some slow moving heavy/thundery downpours may form as long as earlier cloud/patchy rain clears enough and doesn't linger too long, so some places could get a downpour or storm though as things are slow moving others may stay mainly dry. Though with winds offshore in east Devon we may have a reasonable chance.. (no guarantees)Will be driving home from uni tomorrow, so may see something on the way or more likely in the afternoon once I get back.
  12. Evening thunder
    Yeah it looks like some possible convective interest tomorrow for more southern areas, crept up on me as I was working on my report due today.
  13. Evening thunder
    Sefrics every few secs on Blitzortung realtime view.. and really intense radar echo at the top/off the scale of at least 250mm/hr.. Wonder if there's some decent sized hail in there?
  14. Evening thunder
    While there's very heavy rain in the channel heading towards Dorset area, the main electrified cell(s) are on the E/SE side of this heading towards the IOW area at present. I am certainly liking the look of this for southern areas with other cells developing in the channel showing energy even over the sea, and signs of new development around the main cell. This doesn't seem to be showing signs of dieing off yet.
  15. Evening thunder
    Lightning activity with that cell looks to be going directly north towards Portsmouth/IOW to me on the Netweather radar with ATD overlay though it could curve a bit more NNW but more cells could form and track a bit to its east.
  16. Evening thunder
    Cell over Cherbourg is kicking out pretty frequent sefrics on Blitzortungs new realtime lightning map http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en Shame I look too far east of it and also that I have to do some work today, though looking good for Hampshire area if it does survive the channel. The fact the air mass is cooler meaning less difference between the land and the sea could help it's survival possibly?
  17. Evening thunder
    Hmm.. BBC forecasts look kind of rubbish, GFS has improved a bit for last night, and then Netweather go and issue that forecast.. Not sure what to believe.. but based on yesterday probably Netweather over the BBC.. Could actually drive up the M1 and chase possibly with a friend I know from a uni in the midlands, just as long as decent things do form over the Midlands? as Northern England is probably a bit far for me.
  18. Evening thunder
    Great looking storms in Wales through the afternoon, nice watching them on radar even.. I see the BBC's showers/thundery showers did well
  19. Evening thunder
    Scattered cumulus here, seen one or two with a little more vertical development, i.e some bigger congestus looking stuff off to the north earlier. I notice the BBC going for a few heavy showers breaking out even down to London on news 24 forecast just then.. Tomorrow may be mainly Northern England (maybe N Midlands) going by them, too far for me and a friend to meet up and chase probably.. Of course some more storms quite likely back home in Devon again this Evening, yet looks like my uni area missing out like normal, unless some elevated stuff can arrive later tonight and not weaken like shown on the BBC maps (not that I should probably trust them too much)
  20. Evening thunder
    Had some thunder and lightning last night at home apparently, and got a text saying 'Ooh loud' meaning loud thunder a short while ago at home. I bet they get more this evening too while nothing happens here in Egham, I tend to miss much more interesting events at home than I see up here.. Me and a friend are contemplating chasing tomorrow though.. so hopefully will see something!. but the latest GFS pushes it north quicker! and possibly out of our range quicker.. not liking that at all. Seems to always be pushed away from the SE or where ever I am
  21. Evening thunder
    I've seen a few mention 'isolated thunderstorms' for tomorrow on for S Scotland/Pennines/N Wales regions, one said 'intense thunderstorms' too, then one that actually went to Tuesday said 'a much higher risk of seeing some thundery showers on Tuesday'. It is probably inconsistent between forecasts and forecasters,but I've never really known the BBC to give a definite with storms really especially 2 days out, I don't think then mentioned thunder for the NE this evening, and think I remember on June 28th 2012 when some severe storms/supercells with larger than golf ball hail broke out forecasts I saw just said 'thundery showers' or 'thundery downpours' lol
  22. Evening thunder
    Ah right thanks, that's a shame because it always appears under the radar extra menus (i.e the drop-down at the top next to the separate Extra Light and Full drop-downs) and is the only link that doesn't work, so just looked like it was included and wondered if there was an off-chance it was an unintended error
  23. Evening thunder
    Have been wondering this for a while is the link under 'Radar Extra' in various places to 'High-Res Rain Total Maps' actually not included in the Radar extra subscription? because I get this message: 'SUBSCRIPTION:3 Sorry but you do not have access to this area'
  24. Evening thunder
    Just watched the BBC forecast on news 24 which went up to 16:00 on Monday with the detailed map, but that showed no sign of any surface based storms/showers anywhere apart from a few showers over the Pennines/ and briefly NW England at 2/3pm, with some possibly thundery presumably elevated stuff in far west Wales/SW England. Seems a little odd to me with the GFS consistently showing charts like this with precip shown breaking out, along with low pressure coming in and slight convergence, but then I guess they have better models/forecasting knowledge. Unless things kick off later in the afternoon/evening due to a slight cap or something, and the forecast didn't go that far..(GFS does show cape near 1000j/kg is a bit more widespread at 18:00).
  25. Evening thunder
    From what I can tell the 06z seems a bit further west again at least on Monday, perhaps more similar to ECM, but on Netweather the GFS seems to update much slower/more fragmented these days, can't get certain charts (cape/LI) at 75 hours when wetterzentrale is up to t+228.
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