Evening thunder

FWIW the NAE 12Z had much of inland southern England under or having previously been under 35mph sustained winds, with gusts probably, 60mph+ in that case with quite a tight pressure squeeze. Notable and enough to cause some disruption especially with trees this time of year and worthy of some warnings, though not what I'd call 'exceptional' or the sky news 'super storm' Definately more developed than the GFS anyway. It will be interesting to see what the 18Z NAE shows shortly. Edit: and now it starts coming out as I was writing, it appears a bit less developed and slightly further south so far..

To me and how I image things in my head, the slackening/calming of winds is more likely to mean the system is developing more rather than not so much. It's hard to explain, but if the winds were staying more constant from the same direction as today it would seem that the low to the north was having more influence, and the developing low to the SW having less influence, with it likely to be drawn eastwards quicker as a less developed system and therefore further south. However if winds are falling calm and backing ahead of the incoming low, it may be having more influence and 'attracting' the air ahead of it more as it moves in/develops, hence the wind stops flowing into the low to the north and gets closer to the low to the SW (low moving faster than the light winds ahead) Not sure if that makes much sense and can't tell if that's likely to be how it working this time without more live data or until later tonight though. I suspect this type of thing and the slack wind/pressure field ahead of the low could have in part given rise to that phrase 'the calm before the storm'

So many posts I don't understand on here this evening.. Probably shouldn't post the many examples and why I dispair as it will be taking things more off topic and possibly be deleted Instead I'll post that earlier Ian Fergusson, and other sources from the Met Office said things along the lines of The west country and Bristol may well see 50-70mph gusts, possibly 80+mph briefly due to a pressure squeeze on the back edge of the low being picked up by high resolution models but not the global modes like the GFS. Presumably this would then track ENE. He said in the SW thread: 'We're using UKV now as coarser-scale models aren't resolving the mesoscale wind features in the backwash on pressure surge. UKV consistent in past 3 runs. Troubling. More on this in due course for my region especially' Presumably this is why the amber warnings extend further north than I'd have expected from just looking at the GFS wind charts and some other models. On the other hand, the media hype isn't helping things to say the least, and apparently many people outside the risk zone think it's gunna effect them for some reason, presumably due to poor newspaper reports or something.

Not sure if you've realised but the top chart is showing wind gusts but the bottom chart is showing average wind speed so it will look a lot less intense. If you compare the same chart type they will look more similar. Edit: Paul beat me to it!

Anyway It's quite windy here at times as it is in many places,leaves blowing off the trees and around the place. Not especially windy at home in east Devon but then WSW winds rarely do much there for some reason. Whatever happens, it will be interesting watching tonight

The gusts are shown a bit higher at 6am, up to 76mph on the south coast, though not quite as high as was shown yesterday.

A bit later than planned as my computer decided to freeze and then cause all sorts of problems with trying to post this ECM still has a tighter squeeze developing on the back edge: Best seen on the 925mb charts (ignore the coloured shading, which is 925mb humidity, I'm just using these as it shows more isobars and in more detail than any other charts) Which creates an area of stronger winds: Not as strong as some runs before, but mean speeds of 28-35 knots (32-40 mph) inland at 6am for the West Country and other southern counties at 6am, transferring east and giving mean inland speeds of 35-40 knots (40-46 mph) over East Anglia at 9am Gusts would obviously be higher, I'd guess around 60mph for the west country and perhaps 70mph over East Anglia. Average speeds of 45-50 knots (52-58mph) shown for southern coasts, with a small area of 50+ knots developing off east Anglia. Still a notable though short lived blow perhaps, though not worthy of a red warning I'd have thought (unless things change by late morning) or the press hype of course. Seems very knife edge with how the finer detail develops, and how this finer detail effects development/timing of things, e.g. does the tight squeeze in isobars on the back edge develop over the UK or a few hours later after the low has cleared.. a forecasting headache I can imagine. I certainly don't envy the job of the Met Office forecasters right now, they can't really do anything more than what they have done. For us sat here it's a lot easier to watch developments without having to tell the country what will happen, even though we can't be sure. I wonder if the jump from observational data to model forecast data when the system is forming/deepening can cause issues for the models, and if it's possible that this is happening now?

doh computer froze before posting now forum hasn't saved my images, hopefully I'll post what I wanted to soon.

Interesting, especially for me being from a village 3 miles from Lyme bay. This looks a bit concerning for home in East Devon, mean winds over 40 knots inland.. wonder what the gusts would be inland Would pass through pretty quick though, maybe only last half an hour looking at that chart.. A bit typical that anything like this always happens when I'm not at home. Not sure how much I'd want winds that strong or stronger, but If It's gunna happen and do whatever it does anyway I'd love to be at home to experience it. But then again, I have an advantage being here at uni, as at home the strongest wind will probably occur in the hours of darkness, so I would just hear it but not see a lot, whereas when they reach here it will be daylight

Looks pretty similar to the 06z to me just with the winds a bit stronger. Certainly not a shift south from the GFS at least. Northern France doesn't really look stronger than S/SE England to me. Although the strongest winds don't effect other areas so much. Also the GFS may show the low slightly deeper after it exits the UK, but the isobars look just as tight over southern/SE England than any time east of us. It could be weaker and the worst could go south of the UK, though that probably isn't too likely now. Looking like a notable event for some of the south and SE, although not on the levels of the Oct 1987 storm, or that a few posts have said or the usual culprits in the media

Hurricane? seems a lot more hyped than the article you've linked to, which seems much more reasonable and perhaps even underestimating winds slightly.

I don't really agree about the latest NAE being much less developed, it may be to start and a bit further south but it develops a nastier sting in it's tail with a tighter squeeze in the isobars and stronger winds than the 00z. 00z: 06z: The 06z chart is 6 hours later but it already has the tighter isobars to the SW at 42 hours compared to the 00z at 48 hours. The worst winds may be shown in the channel there, and sustained winds of 40mph+ across part of SW England, with gusts much higher. The sustained winds will show a lot higher out to sea as mean speeds are lower inland, but not so much gusts. 65mph+ sustained in the channel is quite impressive. Also as the low pulls away NE the zone strong winds across the SW and in the channel would probably move NE and encompass much of the S, SE and possibly East Anglia, athough Kent may get it worst. I doubt people will be bashing the Met Office or notice if the winds are still very strong but just from a slightly different direction and perhaps slightly later than forecast a few days before. Anyway much of this post probably isn't worth much as it's probably just different inter-run details, and the detail of the outcome will probably be different than shown now. In a way maybe the NAE is more coming into line with some models like the GFS that has the stronger winds a bit later in the day than others like the UKMO global model.

I think if a red warning is issued it's likely to be tomorrow, and possibly only if the storm is on the stronger side of current predictions, if gusts are towards the lower end of possibilities or don't go above 70-80mph in exposed places I'd guess it will stay orange, though that is just my guess.

You might be blown the other way..

An interesting system this one looks like. Will be interesting to watch and experience hopefully, thankfully I don't think it will be like 1987 or the burns day storm, but it could well be a notable storm still. There are some (especially the media/express) hyping this up to a 1987/Burns day or even worse event, and others playing it down to be nothing but some rain and wind. The reality may well be somewhere in between.. I an a little confused by the Met Office quote that's been posted a couple times comparing it to the Burns Day storm and saying the wind reached 92mph then.. the wind definately reached or at least gusted higher than 92mph then in places.. or is this another misquote by the media? Edit: the ECM is leaning closer to that end of the scale though!

I don't really understand that statement, considering the amber warning has the highest impact level (just a lower probability hence it's amber not red) there is definitely the potential for a severe event. Though the warning mentions gusts up to 80mph rather than 70mph. Also about flooding, last year there were several flood events in the SW in Autumn and Winter, not one of those were red warnings, usually orange warnings and often closer time-frames, but the flooding could be described as severe, with the river Exe (amongst others) reaching it's 2nd highest level recorded since gauging stations opened in the 50s/60s, and the highest on record closer to Exmoor. This suggests you don't need a red warning (esp 4 days out!) to potentially get a 'severe' event. I think with this low, the main wind threat may be south of the main rainfall threat, with the highest accumulations slightly north of the low center perhaps where the rain band becomes slower moving as it pivots. The main wind threat is likely to be sightly further south and could well be the main story It looks likely to be either pretty wet and perhaps breezy across the south, or be wet for a while as the rain band goes through then very windy/stormy. With the latest GFS and the UKMO being a bit deeper and further north, I'm thinking the 2nd option is perhaps more likely at the moment.

Saw a decent amount of distant lightning to the west as it approached, it got less frequent when it got closer though, then briefly became a bit more frequent to the west followed by thunder but not too loud, higher up perhaps. Lightning mostly died as it came overhead though, torrential rain for 5 minutes with one flash then one close flash just after, lightning a few secs after thunder. A few more distant flashes since but died off now. I wonder if some kind of round 2 can come from Portsmouth way? Also I noticed cells that passed over Portsmouth/Hayling Island not too long ago looked similar to some on Sunday morning.. would be strange if they had 2 tornadoes in two days..

Was seeing flashes west/SW of here, but seems to have stopped recently. I'm hoping it's cloud in the way not the lightning activity died.

Turns out It did give something here! looked like it wasn't going to give much then it intensified giving pretty strong winds and torrential rain with several flashes and rumbles of thunder as it was clearing. Seemed pretty impressive at the time., kind of makes up for not being at uni. Having said that looks like you might be about to get more!

Nope went home this weekend unfortunately, thought it might coincide with increased thunder chance here too but not the case. Oh well there will probably be a storm at home in Devon this week while I'm back in Egham. The heaviest pixel on the radar passed right over my student house lol.

Well a bit disappointing down here.. and to add to it there looks to be a thunderstorm at uni! and there was me thinking the coasts would do better this time of year but the weather detected I was at home..

Had some heavy showers just pass through, saw one possibly two flashes from somewhere though heard no thunder so quite distant I think. Now I just need something to wake me up in the night if lightning occurs within in a set radius lol, wonder if there's a way to do that?

Yes MetO and BBC, and to an extent the GFS precip maps do seem to agree with that. although surely this can produce something for those further west along the coast? (he says hopefully)

There's no guarantee of course, but some places should see some thundery activity at least should be some intense downpours and chance of hail in places too. Probably not as strong as the storms in the channel that effected parts of S/E Devon at the end of September or the one that moved through Dorset/Somerset area early in October though. (though who knows..) It's encouraging to see quite a bit of Tstorm activity in what's coming our way though: http://www.sat24.com/ is also a good link to watch for general CB activity and lightning (if you have the lightning option checked) I haven't seen CAPE of over 1000 j/kg and LI below -4 into the channel before from this type of maritime air mass showery flow, at least not often and not in October. (1400 j/kg and sub -5 LI near Brest on the previous frame too) This along with decent activity out there now is why I think there might be a good chance for this time of year and for this set up of thundery activity especially around South and West coasts. Perhaps less inland admittedly though that's normal this time of year. As I'm home this weekend 3 miles from the coast of east Devon I'll be keeping an eye out tonight and have the camera battery charged just in case.

Already some activity to the SW: (I think this image will self update through the morning) Oh and yes please! Although oddly a town nearer to me that's 3 miles away from Honiton and my location, shows much less thunder Though I think the more important thing is on the Met Office forecast maps there are a reasonable number of thunder symbols and lots of heavy shower symbols from the early hours and through tomorrow, even if the text forecast for the SW only says isolated showers? Edit: to avoid any confusion I'm at home in east Devon this weekend, not up in Surrey, hopefully this increases my chances of seeing something.