Evening thunder

Yeah, I feel it is a bit OTT esp with limited (though perhaps enough for some heavy slow moving showers) CAPE and the Met Office text forecasts and other forecasts not so enthusiastic, but think it shows there is some risk there and I'd have to assume some solar input and heating for charts to be showing a risk and the Met Office to mention a risk. I may be wrong of course just adding my thoughts of how things look, of course the weather anywhere around here could be anything from dry all day to a local/isolated very heavy downpour.

Forecasts say it's still meant to reach 23C here tomorrow, with some sunny spells and a risk of a few heavy showers here and there later. This definitely looks interesting for parts of Devon.. though I feel it may be overdoing things slightly: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/ottery-st-mary#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1377572400&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=51.53 I think it shows there may be mid/higher level frontal cloud though I would guess any lower level drizzly frontal stuff will be a bit further west for most of the day, with lower cloud being more convective stuff though perhaps spread out a bit at times, would be my guess. Edit: if you click cloud and rain it looks quite cloudy in this area, though think that must be mid/high level cloud to allow heavy downpours to develop like shown.. but then again it's just one model and just my best guess/estimate. Very nice day here today though, with a max of 24.9c with a good amount of sunshine and also some relatively developed cumulus at times.

I don't know whether there will be much thundery activity tonight/tomorrow, but I think some could be getting a little ahead of themselves.. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some mid level instability and storms in places (further east than my location though). The Met Office/BBC must be seeing some potential to talk about it, although it could more be a story of rain than frequent lightning activity. Surely it would be better wait until after the event to try and knock a forecast? I have seen some good storms when the GFS CAPE charts on Netweather show next to nothing, especially elevated storms. I seem to hold a different opinion, and think they are more or less forecasting what they actually expect to happen.. although this is subject to different interpretations by BBC forecasters and also the public who hear the forecasts. Though as far as I can tell the Met Office forecasts on their website and warnings just say 'thundery' downpours rather than 'thunderstorms'.. if heavy/torrential downpours occur in places with perhaps a few sefrics thrown in, they will have been right.

This month has seemed decent here, mean maxima slightly above average (in fact higher than any summer month since 2006 here apart from July 2013) Today is quite a nice day again though there is more high cloud around turning the sun hazy at times.

Seen my first painted lady on the 16th and often see one on one of our buddleia's now, usually just one so think it is possibly the same one, but on Monday both the bush's in our front and the back garden had one on. Loads of small tortoiseshells here, our relatively small 1st year buddleia sometimes has at least 25-30 butterflies on at one time, with perhaps 90% being small tortoiseshells. Interesting difference to some other places. Last year we had loads appear in August too. A few peacocks, less than a couple weeks ago, occasional comma still, the odd red admiral, a couple of wall's recently (first time seen in Garden this year though there were lots on the SE Cornwall coast last week), and saw another fritillary the other day.

An there's the notably cool night.. down to 6.2c last night. Every single summer month seems to get a min below 7c here, at least 2008 onwards when I've kept data. July did it on the 12th the day before the hottest day of the year.

28.4mm here in July so quite dry. 23.8mm in June too and so far August has given 9.0mm (in contrast to further west in Devon where over 50mm fell in one day in places), meaning there has been just 61.2mm of rain here so far this summer. Jan: 124.6mm Feb: 49.6mm Mar: 127.2mm Apr: 36.8mm May: 54.4mm Jun: 23.8mm Jul: 28.4mm

Just saw a silver-washed fritillary fluttering around our front garden which landed on our windowsill - looked quite old/warn out with a damaged wing though. Lots of tortoiseshells some landing on the ground/our walls when the sun goes in and back to the buddleia when it comes out.

I've just the common types in our garden really, tortoiseshells are probably most abundant now, then quite a lot of peacocks (that's ignoring the whites which may be most abundant over all) Dad saw a silver-washed fritillary a couple weeks ago though. A few commas at times and the odd red admiral in our garden too. However there were a few red admirals down by the river on Saturday in a pebbly long grass/reeds/plants area, where I also saw a couple small coppers, a meadow brown and a gatekeeper. Similar on local heathland yesterday and also quite a lot of greylings. Seen nothing particularly uncommon though.

Yesterday we had the problem with cloud we had mostly avoided before then, in fact much of the afternoon and evening was pretty cloudy. Max was 21.4c so average temps. Today though so far so good, mostly sunny and 18.7c at the moment.

Today has been the cloudiest day of the last 4 but still sunny spells, we have been quite sunny the last 3 days and not had any cloud spreading out problem. Today this happened a bit although we had decent sun at times and still reached average. stewfox, on 09 Aug 2013 - 20:53, said: Lol, living where I do you have easy access to better and less crowded beaches than the ones everyone flocks to for some reason, and also know places/times to avoid the worst of any crowd Although this week I am avoiding one local town due to the folk festival and how packed it gets.

Saw quite a few peacocks about yesterday, lovely to see them. A reasonable number of bumblebees too which is also nice to see. I have to say why someone would hate butterflies like that and want a early northerly to kill them off is something I find hard to comprehend..

Reached 22.7c so far - a slightly above average max again after reaching 23.3c yesterday. Last night got down to 9.7c, slightly below average but not at all unusual here. So all in all a pretty standard summer fare. One or two mins may have been closer to the September average min here, but they are hardly unusual in Summer so I don't describe them as being Autumnal. We can get dew and occasionally early fog (though not recently) all year round here and I'd have thought in most other places too. The 13th July had a min of 8.7c here. That day gave the highest max of the year and for 7 years. The 12th did actually have a pretty chilly min for July at 6.1c. Late August 2010 had a min of 3.0C here and a couple bits of ground frost, now I'd call that Autumnal!

Doesn't really feel Autumnal in any way here. I'm not sure about other parts of the country but it's still very much summer down here. We did have 10.1c last night and 8.3c yesterday morning, but that's not unusual for summer in my location.

Dark skies coming in here now from the NNE certainly has a heavy shower/downpour look to it. If only it could be a evening thunderstorm slowly rolling in not a shower hardly registering on radar.

Been a lovely 2 days here, today almost my perfect summers day, max 23.3c, and warm right on the coast with plenty of sunshine and interesting convective cumulus through the afternoon or evening (but showing no signs of spreading out and never blocking the sun for too long).

A fair few fluttering about here, peacocks, red admirals, tortoiseshells, commas, and quite a lot of white ones presumably cabbage whites. My dad saw a few other types and a hummingbird hawk moth. Although actually I saw higher numbers last August here, they were mainly tortoiseshells, so perhaps less of other species, but there must have been 20+ at one time on either of our Buddleia's which aren't especially large ones. This was after seeing hardly any up to August though when they appeared quite quickly.

I have managed to put together and upload video from the 2nd August storms, drove to west/NW into the path of the first storm, then a 2nd storm gave more lightning more in the distance but that was actually closer to my home than where I was. Didn't realise at the time due to poor phone signal and not realising quite what direction I was facing lol. Still saw quite a lot of the lightning and had a good view so probably a better position than at home. various clips put together in order they were taken, lightning strikes within frame start just after 2 minutes, and slow motion lightning after about 5:30:

In my local back yard we've managed to escape without any significant falls of rain for a long time now.. Could possibly do with a decent soaking to make sure the soil deeper down gets damp, last day of rain over 10mm was May the 14th I guess that's the nature of summer/convective downpours. Lowest min since the 12th of July this morning, got to 8.3c. (the 12th July min was very cool at 6.1c, yet the next day was the hottest of the year)

That stuff on radar stretching up from SE Cornwall to south Wales does look mean - has the look of thunderstorms just without the thunder. Can kind of see things pivoting round on the radar. I'd guess areas NE of there could get some new cells break out so could be interesting along with that line it's self. Will probably miss here the way things have been. Had some small heavy showers pop up that were coming this way but they've died lol.

That 'huge rain band' has given 2.0mm here today and 0.2mm since 1:30am, the time where most was meant to fall. I like a good heavy rain sometimes especially now as I haven't had a day with over 10mm of rain since May and before that one March, could do with a decent fall to give a good watering not just on the surface. Interesting looking line of torrential rain up through parts of Cornwall and west Devon, but looking at the radar it appears that will give pretty much nothing with a heavy bit in the channel going east, and any showers coming my way dying out. Kind of annoying considering last evening this area and up the M5 corridor was supposed to have the heaviest rain today. Oh and GFS has removed the CAPE and heavy showers for this area on Wednesday.. bloody marvelous. Wonder when I'll next see decent rain at home, none showing on the models now.. the protracted drier than normal weather continues.

Even central/west Devon seems a world away from here, dry all morning with not a spot of rain. That heavy bit in the channel looks like it's going to go east of here instead.

Seems like a thunderstorm south of west Cornwall produced 34 sefrics on the ATD recently, but then seems to have died again pretty quick.

3.6mm in total and 2.0mm today. 0.2mm since 1:30am and nothing coming this way on radar either..

Looks like another fail at significant rain here - 2.0mm so far today lol and nothing coming this way on radar. Only 0.2mm of rain since 1:30am too.