Evening thunder

27.5c high today, capped slightly due to the sea breeze but it wasn't that far off that temp most of the time from noon until about 5pm. According to the BBC forecast even Plymouth apparently reached 30c when it's more coastal on the South coast - hey ho. Temp down to 16.0c here now, probably a good thing because the house is a little too warm.

I guess some locations are expected to get to 30 or 31C today as the Met office text forecasts for the SE and SW say max temp 31C. The local BBC forecast also showed 30C in Somerset. The level 3 heat health warnings also suggest 90% chance of the threshold of 30C in the SW and West Midlands, and 31C for the SE. Here it's 26.8C after a peak of 27.5C earlier, that slight drop is expected here though due to the sea breeze.

Yes I'm just a couple miles from one of the largest lowland heath areas in England and was wondering if there will be any kind of fire outbreak as this spell goes on. It must be getting pretty dry (and hot) up there.

very warm to hot again, 27.4c and sunny here There's quite a lot of official 27c's about, and Bournemouth has been reporting 28C or 29C at times - and these are often at least half an hour behind. See sites like xcweather or the Netweather homepage.

The UKMO is not really consistent with other outputs, or when the 12z showed this and todays 00z is in disagreement with the rest of the models. Obviously there's quite a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of thundery troughs/lows. At the moment I will stick with most models suggesting a more gradual slackening of pressure with shallow thundery troughs/lows forming in the hot air leading to the potential for some sparks to fly.. just how I remember in the past. Perfect Tbh I think some are getting a little too far ahead of themselves just focusing on the post-breakdown period, Nothing wrong with that if they want to but it might not be correct of course. I'm not going to get too hung up on it yet considering changes that have occurred at shorter time frames (indeed if the UKMO is correct next week, this would be another to add to the list). We may enter an unsettled spell (not gunna complain at that, this is the UK, we've just had a fantastic month and my garden and the countryside is rather thirsty). from what I can see some MJO forecasts are in disagreement later as usual, ECM thinks we'll get back towards phase 3 at the end of July. Also I know the MJO can be useful to use alongside the models and as guidance into the future, but even so surely the MJO forecasts are only as good as the models that make them?

Just 2.0mm here this July so far.Jan: 124.6mmFeb: 49.6mmMar: 127.2mm Apr: 36.8mmMay: 54.4mmJun: 23.8mm So 25.8mm this summer so far compared to 333.8mm to this date last summer!

Gone here now but I'm pretty sure they were noctilucent clouds, too bright/light to be cirrus at that time, the sun would have had to be nearly shining on them well after an hour after sunset. I could make out a bit of finer typicaly NLC texture too, hardly a spectacular display but took a few pics I may be able to upload tomorrow so others can see what they think

Finally seen some this year! got some going on to my N/NW right now. structure a bit like cirrus but it's definitely them.

Not sure which part is ironic as I said I'd like some convective activity and storms. I don't mind the humidity and moisture they bring personally, if it's uncomfortable it's a small price to pay (and its good for plants etc).For me, Warmth and sun = good summer weather Warmth and sun with convective showers and thunderstorms to keep things watered = even better summer weather I'm personally not moaning at all, I agree it's nothing extreme, just saying that some don't like heat whether it's extreme or not, and I understand them, I'm not sure I'd like it in certain situations or if I had to do hard/outdoor work in it. I hate getting all sweaty and overheated in clothing (often can't wear shorts and t-shirt while at work) and warmth doesn't need to be 'extreme' for that. Many members of the public don't like our cold in winter etc and make no secret of it but that's certainly not extreme. Sorry not trying to be difficult just one of my pet hates is people implying others shouldn't like or dislike certain weather types. Anyway another very good summer day here, temp reached 27.4c earlier at 12:51 before a sea breeze capped it between 26c and 27c for the rest of the afternoon so far.

Yeah agreed it's comfortable if sat in the shade under a tree - but many don't have that option for much of the week (and some work places can be much hotter than the 30c outdoor shade temps. Some people have different tolerances and preferences, and conditions they feel comfortable or uncomfortable in. My parents/brother and some of the rest of my family don't like it much over the low 20's. Just because some have different preferences and you don't understand it doesn't mean they are wrong for it. Personally I wouldn't mind this weather to continue but might get a bit bored of just sunny conditions after a while. I would like some convective activity and a few thunderstorms thrown in - the GFS 06z looks pretty tasty in that respect

28th June 2012 at about 3:30amAlthough actually one evening last August was decent for distant lightning, and then an overhead storm - though the lightning was less frequent, but a few good bolts seen.

Up to 27.4c now, Sea breeze will likely prevent things getting much higher here but it's already pretty warm.

For some reason I thought there were already regulations like those MP's were talking about for the workplace. I don't really get the problem with what they were saying - for some indoor work at least which is what I thought they were talking about. Those temps can be horrible to work in, and many hotter countries have air con or take siestas Obviously outdoor work is different, and you kind of sign up to the differing temps when getting an outdoor job - though I wouldn't see a problem with people being allowed to not be forced to work if we had an extreme heatwave (i.e above the mid 30's) in this country, if it was more than just a little uncomfortable to them. I've heard other countries do it like Russia in one of their big heatwaves recently. We don't always have to compare ourselves to the hottest places in the world when it is completely different there with their lives and society set up for it. Oh well it's relative to what a country is used to I guess, this country can be silly with it not dealing with certain weather well sometimes, but I have seen some people in places like California can struggle to drive when it rains.. I think it's because the 38C temp is the highest possible max temp - or the highest ensemble member - equally the max temp could also be 20C. The range shown always seems quite big as presumably it just takes the highest and lowest ensemble. Most of the ensembles or the average is probably cooler, and have the NE wind shown, presumably the wind speed/direction is the mean of the ensembles (and the one showing 38C would have a different flow). Not sure whether some realise the 38C is only the highest in a range of max temps, rather than a specific forecast for 38C, and the 20C is the lowest in that range, not the min temp (the min temp range being 13-21C)

That rainfall is likely to be due to isolated convective showers/storms due to the heat, or perhaps more scattered daytime storms or outbreaks of thunderstorms moving across from the continent on some ensembles, but still plenty of very warm/hot and sunny weather around - not really a proper breakdown to me at least.

I reckon we would need uppers in the low-mid 20C to challende 40C, the UK record actually came on the 10th with 20-22C uppers in the south: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030810.gif On the 6th they were actually slightly higher in the south (22C line over us) but the surface max temps were slightly lower: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030806.gif July 2006 reached 18C uppers I believe, so getting there at the end of the ECM run though this is hypothetical at that range of course.

Not really sure what you mean, Even at day 10 into 'why bother worrying' territory the high is still firmly sat over the UK and hasn't moved: The only places that needs to worry about that trough to the NE are areas like Poland and Finland/Sweden and eastwards.. That trough is centered in Russia, in recent years they've been having a heatwave while we've been under a trough. Even if it did possibly move west and lead to cooler weather in Early August - we would have just had a fantastic July, probably up there with some of the best (continuous warmth since the 5th for some) If we (or those that like this weather) can't look at this outlook in a positive light when can we? Anyway the ensembles are moving away from a cooler breakdown from the north around the 25th, if anything the ECM ensemble mean shows slight support from a plume type event than a breakdown from the NW now, with uppers still 12C in the south where a day or two ago they were shown a bit lower and reducing from the NW a couple days earlier. Only need to worry about any low to the east on this ensemble mean would be if you lived in eastern Europe or west Russia.

Sorry that wasn't the bit I agreed with - it was the bit about a breakdown should be able to form part of the discussion (as it does) as long as people don't get too far ahead of themselves about it, just as high pressure should be. I could have done better to review my post and make that clearer though.. think I forgot to select the specific part I was replying to. I actually thought I've never seen you do what he claimed. and that's a stunning ECM this morning, might not break down before August on that.

Indeed I agree, but then you get some different people saying warmth/high pressure charts are in FI and they seem to have a problem with people discussing them. Yes a breakdown is coming, a breakdown comes to every single weather type/event that has ever happened.. I don't think we'll be getting temps at quite that level, I just found the mean temp in Moscow for July 2010 was 26.1C, 7C above average () that anomaly would require a CET monthly mean equivalent of 23-24C! (and no models show temps getting anywhere near 39C they had in Moscow or record breaking for us). About a potential breakdown, The ECM mean at T+240 shows pressure lower and things being rather slack in general, A breakdown of some sort or a partial breakdown is probably quite likely after day 10 I feel (may not be a bad thing, could definitely do with rain by then and might not be to weeks of cool/unsettled dominated weather), though I don't think you could pick out any especially likely trend or solution from this mean chart (the individual members could be more revealing or show different clusters). The ECM ensemble mean doesn't really suggest a breakdown from the NW as much as it has recently though.

Actually now I've made my recent post on the last page the GFS ensembles have risen a bit around the 23rd, so could get some widespread low 30's on some of those perhaps and the ECM gets brings some after t+192, this being t+240 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif A bit hypothetical of course but maybe the heat could build slightly higher than we've seen.

Temp reached 26.0c here before falling off a degree or two due to the sea breeze. Went to have lunch in Sidmouth for my mums birthday today, and even by the sea it was very nice, almost too warm in the sun. At least low 20's right on the beach, possibly 23-24c. I think what will be more notable about this spell is it's persistence, and the persistence of similar temps and uppers (though surface temps have perhaps shifted around and gone up/down more for some places on the ground), rather than high temp values themselves. Though a few have suggested it I don't see many signs of record breaking temps or temps higher than the low 30's (low 30's still likely in some days to come though). No widespread 15c+ uppers in the models or ensembles atm and a way off the 18C uppers of July 2006 or the 22C uppers of August 2003. Just posting my thoughts on a few posts I've seen the last few days, still A fantastic summer spell and month looking likely though, probably better than near-record heat for quite a few (though I'd find it interesting from a weather enthusiast/data point of view)

About 55% here with a dew point of 14-15c, This morning, yesterday and the day before had a dew points around 18c much of the time so quite humid for us. However one day last week we had the humidity go down to 25%, which is the lowest I've recorded in nearly 6 years of data and gave a dew point of 4.9c when the temp was 26.6c. Looking at xcweather there's some quite low humidity in the SE though, 21% at Heathrow and 19% at London City Airport

Just something I find interesting: Yesterday Exeter Airport was listed on the Met Office of having a min of 4.9c on the 12th, the coldest in the country. However yesterday it reached 30.8c. That's quite an impressive range of temps within 2 days. Also yesterday it was just 0.6c short of the national highest max, but recorded the national lowest min of 7.7c, giving a 23.1c diurnal range.

Met Office station reporting 30.3C at Exeter Airport at 3pm http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3839.html

If the official Met Office station at Exeter Airport reflects the other airport one saying 31C, that would be the hottest temp there since 31C in August 2003 (July 2006 was 30C), and before that would be the highest since 32.4C in August 1990. Currently 28.3C here so 2 or 3c down on further inland due to a sea breeze.

Got back from Exeter about an hour ago as I was there this morning, 28.8c here after a max so far of 29.2c, and a slight sea breeze otherwise it could be 30c Car read up to 33c on the way back, but only said 29c when we got back here. that 33C was presumably due to hotter air off the tarmac. Exeter Airport has reached 30C though! Edit: oh getting cooler here now thanks to the sea breeze.