Evening thunder

Another nice sunny day, temp only 20.9c max here compared to more like 26 further inland, 27 at Chivenor in north Devon. Sea breeze still having a pretty major (more so than it often does) effect on temps here a few miles in from the south coast. However tomorrow Exeter is actually forecast 30C by the Met Office! can't remember when I last saw that before.. looks like with less sea breeze development tomorrow will be significantly hotter than today, In fact if the Met Office's temp map is correct we will have no sea breeze so might reach around 30C here tomorrow! Think we better get the house as cool as possible later this evening or early.. mind you it's 16.5c here now so another cool quite possibly-sub 10c night likely, so a high diurnal range tomorrow.

Thanks for the link, indeed and I guess the below average anomalies further south in the North Sea probably help with more southern areas of the east coast being effected more if I am looking at it right. You will know more than me though. My question was more over how can some charts like the one you post show slightly below average SST's in one area (S of Ireland) then some others I use show 2C above average SST's in the same place Edit: I think the heading on the charts on your link say it is the average of the period 1st June to 1st July, that may explain the difference. I wonder if the Unisys anomalies are averaged over a longer period than just 1 day too, which would explain the differences I am seeing.

I never really understand the difference between that chart and others I look at for SST's for example this link using data the Met Office are involved with shows SST's have been rising over this spell, and are now 17C off South Ireland and SW England: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 Indeed the corresponding anomalies are now more notably positive in these areas: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2 with both positive and negative anomalies in the North Sea where as the global link you posted shows them just below average around/SW of Ireland.. I'm inclined to believe the charts I've linked to as they are more detailed rather than just a global view, but really, which am I meant to believe? Sorry if this is not strictly model related.

Chilly night indeed with a low of 6.1c. and now 17.2c with what was probbaly North Sea low cloud via the channel now mostly broken up

Cloudy and 13.6c after a chilly night with a min temp of 6.1c.

Lol, I thought of doing that, getting a thermometer and putting it in the shade in my car then using it as a reference point to see what that type of heat would feel like if it were to occur outside.. I'm only slightly crazy. Temp down to 9.1c here now. Odd to think the temps 5c higher at the 850hpa level about 1,500m elevation. Surely it has to stop falling at this rate soon unless it wants to get close to my record July low.. only 4.2c to go to reach it. That would be very crazy in this set up It does seem to have suddenly leveled off just recently though. Edit: or maybe not, 8.7c now As RJS says on the last page I think it's more than just a sea breeze, but the cooler airmass brought in down here last night not being able to warm over the channel through the day (unlike over land with North Devon reaching 24C), then brought onshore through the day via a S/SSW sea breeze.

Temp already down to 9.4c here.. notably chilly July night coming up?

Already down to 14.4c here, feel like it might be a cool night with skies remaining clear from this low starting point.. feels more like a cool (but sunny) north-westerly today here. Funny what this wind off the sea/sea breeze has done locally. Hopefully a bit warmer tomorrow, though still a sea breeze forecast, then Saturday the Met Office have 29c forecast for Exeter! not seen that since 2006 (and their forecasts have been a degree or so under what's occurred most days too, except today)

I think what's the most important things from this evening's charts though is that the continuance of very warm conditions at least for the southern half of the UK into next week looks likely, with pressure also looking like it may build or remain relatively high for a while after that, implying a good amount of warm (at least) and mainly settled weather after that.

We had a high pretty much centered over us today: and the 8th July: (also on the 7th) The last frame of the ECM has the high centered a bit west of us, but still pretty warm for most, perhaps hot: Although looking at some of the outputs, and occurrences so far this summer, could this be Ireland's summer? (or at least July, relative to it's average, and pretty good for the UK too).

Even on the GFS conditions remain very warm or hot in the southern half of teh UK until Wednesday with temperatures approaching the high 20's at least in places, which is an extension of the warmth compared to what the models showed until later yesterday or today.

only 18.0c now and temp falling slowly, would never have thought a chart like this http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130711/12/03/h850t850eu.png would be so cool in my back yard! (especially with 100% sun). Having said that it is still nice with the sun, and doesn't feel as cool as I'd expect compared to recently.. still feels pretty warm or even hot in the strong sun.

Not really sure, may be something to do with the health authorities rather than the Met Office. May be that it's less common outside England but certainly possible so not sure why. Temp still only 18.7 here.. meant to have a ENE flow but have had quite a brisk sea breeze since morning and it's effecting the temperature a lot more than yesterdays. Warming up to the forecast 22/23c inland but not here. I was thinking a few days ago we could get a longer chain of >25c maxima here, looks like it might not even be >20c

We can still get storms at night or decent storms, last year I had a good night time show (28th June 3:30am) then another decent one in August. We came close in June, but the set up was just a bit to far east or SE. I saw comparisons with a set up in 1994 when we got big storms, but the whole set up looked a few hundred miles further NW then, so we were under the zone which France or the low countries were under this time in June. I remember 2004 and 2005 was quite stormy at times, had some crackers in 2005 here, 2006 decent too. I would guess the reasons would be a combination of the reasons mentioned above, synoptics, maybe SST's perhaps more global SST's and other factors effecting synoptics, and also some bad luck. I think (or hope) we will see a return of stormier conditions sometime, and don't really see why this quieter spell shouldn't end at some point, in the same way as with happened with 'the even larger teapot' and looks like may happen to 'the modern summer' this year.. ^^ lol at the swear filter!

Yeah I'm not sure it will be widespread, and would have thought mainly further south myself. I have seen the forecasts going for 28's and a few 29's and they usually are under by a degree or two, so some places should reach 30c I guess but wouldn't have expected it 2 days running in many areas like Nottingham. Much cooler here today, it reached 17.9c at 11:43 but it has dropped back to 16.8c now with a sea breeze.. meant to warm up but so far a below average day has sprung up at least for this time of the day. completely blue skies again though and I don't mind having a blip like this in the very warm weather.

Just noticed the first heat health watch has been issued by the Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/

Fair play, I just thought it would be expected at some point even in a good summer but that wouldn't matter if you have a greenhouse or somewhere to keep then. Max's here: Thu: 22.9c Fri 22.3c Sat: 22.2c Sun 27.9c Mon: 28.3c Tue: 27.8cWed: 27.2c Not bad for here that often gets onshore/sea breezes from the south coast in very warm spells

Surely 11C min is not that unusual in summer? (in fact not far off average here) 4th day over 27C in a row, before this I hadn't had 4 days over 25C in a row since I started keeping data in October 2007. At times a sea breeze but it didn't make much impact on temperatures, probably just recirculating warm air from inland that comes over the top before flowing at low level back inland, if that makes sense. When the sea breeze went for a bit the temp rose a degree or so to reach the max of 27.2C. A change in the look of the weather through today, much of the day sunny with clear blue sky, but then more cumulus cloud and high level hazy cloud later this afternoon gave the sky a milky look with quite a bit of cloud at one point (still pretty warm), now back to blue skies.

Probably not much considering most of Greenland is higher than the 850hpa (about 1,500m) pressure level anyway. This is a question I've sometimes wondered, why do the models show the temp at 850hpa over Greenland when over most of Greenland that elevation is buried under up to 2,000m of ice! and as such could we count a -10c 850hpa shown over Greenland as the first of a season as it won't actually exist in real life) for what it's worth, the 06z shows -10c 850's at 00 hours: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130710/06/00/h850t850eu.png but the 850hpa temps are much higher than surface temps there, http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130710/06/00/maxtemp.png probably showing how the surface temps have an elevation much higher than the 850hpa temps.. lol Sorry if this isn't strictly UK related, Others have summed up what I could have to say really.

Definitely is the best warm/hot spell since 2006 here, in any month, and it aint over yet.

Sunny and warm. Temp: 21.7c Humidity: 46%Dew point: 9.6cWind: 2mph ENE Pressure: 1025.1mb Min temp: 9.6cAfter a max of 27.8c yesterday, quite a cool night and a remarkable temp drop yesterday evening, dropped 10c in under 2 hours presumably due to the dry air yesterday as I recorded a humidity of just 25%, and of course my location nearly on the floor of a valley. Despite this cool night it's already warmer than this time yesterday though. A station about 50m higher than me on a hillside about a mile to my west was up to 6c warmer than me yesterday evening.

Down to 11.6c here now, Odd to think that 5 hours after todays max temp of 27.8c, it was closer to 0c than todays max still nice having a bit of cooler air coming in the house, though upstairs seems to be struggling to loose the warmth more. About how people are finding the heat, most of my family don't really like it and my parents think it's too hot, though I haven't found it too bad and have managed to cope reasonably well, better than I perhaps expected. I Felt slightly hot at times but just don't stay in the sun too long, dress appropriately i.e white T-shirt, shorts etc.. I have been enjoying feel of it too. I think a significant part of the differences is how well peoples houses cool down or not as the case may be, and how easily they can sleep in warm temperatures. For the south Saturday looks warmer than Friday to me, according to the GFS and Met Office forecasts (though I feel the Met Office are underdoing maxima for here on Friday - 22C - really? even the GFS has 26-27 around this area)

This was yesterdays local forecast for the SW so not sure if it's still available on somewhere like Iplayer, it might be somewhere. It is looking like Saturday might be at this stage, seen the Met Office forecast maps showing a few 28C's in the south, higher than they were showing for recent days 5 days out. Edit: just looked on Iplayer and it only has today's Spotlight and for some reason one from the 3rd July, so not sure if it's available anywhere on the net

The BBC Spotlight forecasts said Exeter got to 30C yesterday (it ws Ian Fergusson that said it too, as apparently did a national forecast yesterday evening), and 29C today, it would be interesting where these readings come from because Exeter Airport has been about 2C at least below on that on both days, and it is only about 25-30m in evelation and not closer to the coast. No such readings stated from the Met Office either. Down to 13.4c here in the valley now, still 19.2c up on a hillside a mile away.

Gem doesn't look that that bad to to me, things do turn cooler like most models show into next week, but FWIW uppers don't really fall below 8C in the south and not for long, and by the end of the run it has the Azores high nudging in again and uppers around 12c ECM doesn't look too bad to me either, a average-ish run overall (perhaps better than if you include the 5 warm-hot days in the 1st half of the run, at least for southern parts). Very warm to hot still in the south until Monday, then cooler, although a high having more influence towards the end again and temps warming to the low 20's or just above.