Evening thunder

The problem is that the national maps often automatically use the temp for Plymouth, and the symbol looks as if it's over my area when it can be very different from Plymouth here. Plymouth is of course coastal so the model used to generate the maps is probably forecasting a sea breeze on Friday (as is GFS), so it may not be far off the mark for Plymouth right next to the sea, but go a few miles inland and it will probably be unrepresentative.

Lower them usually, at least near the east coast compared to what they would be without a breeze, but the GFS in previous years at least has overestimated the amount by which a breeze lowers max temps in warm spells, although it could have partly just been underestimating them generally irrespective of the easterly breeze. It depends where you are though, for example on west/south facing coasts a easterly breeze could suppress the usual cooling sea breezes resulting in higher maxima along the coast than they would have got. The east coast wouldn't fair so well though. Thought I'd look back to previous predictions in my previous post as thought some might find it useful as a reference point about GFS temps, not sure if it is useful though.

A post I wrote earlier about the GFS but thought I'd wait for the ECM to finish: Re the GFS temp predictions and it underestimating them at times - One occasion I remembered was last year on the 25th May we had an easterly flow with uppers about 12-13C, perhaps the last occasion like this. I am using Meteociel's archive of the 00z run on the 25th to see what it predicted that day and compare to what happened. 850hpa temps at 4pm UK time: Predicted 2m max temps: This day was forecast to be sunny by the GFS and was sunny. Actual max temps that day As you can see the GFS under-predicted temps by a few degrees and locally up to 6C! across the south and west. I had 27.5C that day v's 23C predicted. The easterly flow that day was slightly stronger than predicted next week I think (hence it being notably cooler towards the east coast), but it shows how the GFS temp predictions could be a bit off. This year I must admit seems to have been better (even too high occasionally when it's shown no wind or underestimated cloud) but I'm not going to be confident it has completely fixed the issue or won't still be a factor in it's temp predictions with surface easterlies or breezes from this spell. Again on the very warm few days/mini heatwave late last July, on the 25th which I think was the warmest day, uppers were touching 13C in the south, and a E/NE surface flow in places but actually rather light in the south. The GFS predicted: http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/archives/2012072500/15-582.GIF? Actual: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/archives/25-07-2012/eurtx.png again generally a few degrees too low on the GFS predictions, and I had 27.3C not the 23C predicted again. Just to show perhaps it may be best not to take the GFS temp predictions too literally (even if ignoring them being several days off atm) and not get downbeat if they seem a bit on the low side. ECM is slightly disappointing this evening, but what's the betting it has 'had a wobble' like a few days ago, with pretty limited support as far as I can see for an evolution like it suggests that quick. Considering its change since this morning It's unlikely be the final solution anyway. Still if it did happen 5 days of very warm weather in the south and 4 days in most other areas (perhaps 2 or 3 for far northern areas) ain't bad. It could be right, and nothing wrong with posting/discussing it of course, but I'm not going to loose too much sleep over it quite yet. ---------- Re Tony27 post #271: Yes, I know, but your previous post implied everyone was ignoring the ECM Op.. now you're telling me why they aren't ignoring it so contradicting your self, but never mind, yes it would be nice if the ensemble mean was much better after T+168 like the 00z mean.

It seems to be getting more attention than the GFS, or the ECM's warmth/heat does before the cooler northerly flow..

Yeah it does appear that way, but then the 06Z had upgraded the uppers from the 00z while downgrading surface temps, so the uppers on the 00z were probably similar but with surface temps a few degrees higher if I remember right. I have seen it many times where the GFS has underestimated temps by a few degrees with easterly surface flows in the south/SW and other areas (although the east coast will be cooler). However as an IMBY point for this area and the south coast of England a surface flow from the E or NE strong enough to prevent a sea breeze is very good if you want the highest air temps. Looking through the Netweather wind charts and comparing the 12z to 06z the 06z had almost as much of a surface E/NE flow, I think it is just that the GFS has a tendency to under-do maxima by a couple degrees where it progs a average wind strength of anything around or above F2-3. Anyway there is probably not much point focusing on run-run GFS temp variations at this range. I hope the ECM's slightly higher 850hpa's (about 15C in the south) are closer to the mark. Many say that but personally I think it was more that the plume it's self was just a bit too far E/SE, many other 'successful' events have had the synoptics a bit further west, this time the main storm forming and sustaining zone with the higher uppers and energy was over the near continent and France instead. However yes I agree that there is not likely to be much thundery activity, though any CAPE/LI shown is home grown but think the GFS tends to over do CAPE and showers in these kinds of scenarios. One more comment, I will make the prediction that I reckon there won't be one day in this spell where someone doesn't make a moan type comment on here (even excluding those that dislike heat) and perhaps there won't be during the whole summer. Meanwhile we will be progressing through a week+ of very warm/hot summer weather in many areas. Not sure how this post got quite long like this, oh well.

Certainly seems that way so far here at least, could do with a decent soaking at some point probably. About the MetO thing bear in mind that the '10 years of wet summers' was the media and press' interpretation, the Met Office just said it just weights the changes slightly in favour as far as I remember. I reckon the 06z is under-doing maxima slightly across the south into next week, as it shows 850hpa temps near 15C. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130702/06/156/h850t850eu.png It tends to do this when it shows a bit more of a breeze compared to when winds are shown very light or calm. I notice when there's a bit more of a breeze shown it usually knocks a few degrees of maxima compared to when it is showing calm when it can get maxima right or even show them too high, similar with minima it often predicts them too low when winds are shown near calm, but several degrees higher and perhaps closer to reality if there's a slight breeze shown, if any of that makes sense! I've seen this several times with warm weather and an easterly surface breeze in the south, I'd expect more widespread high 20's and perhaps the odd 30C with the high pressure and uppers shown into next week, rather than widespread mid 20's and the odd high 20's the GFS shows. (e.g last May had 27.5c here under 12-13c uppers with an E breeze, GFS went for something like 24 I think). Anyway this is just speculation on the 06z details but the ECM shows similar uppers. Also personally I think much of the SE looks warm, very warm to hot (probably mid to high 20's) times once you get to London or west of there I'd think, Perhaps not quite the hot spots unless an easterly surface flow dies away sometime during this spell which is quite possible, but it's really only the parts of EA and the SE closer to the east coast I'd expect to be notably cooler, perhaps most of Kent in particular looking at the GFS wind charts.

Yes I did post one 7 days away, but that didn't stop some worrying or speculating, or saying they don't like runs, because of a breakdown out at day 10 and afterwards. So I'd thought it would be reasonable picking something 7 days away to show the outlook is still good. Saturday still looks fine and warm away from the NW areas like Scotland and NI to me, maybe some fair weather cumulus but still sunny intervals. Anyway the models look even better this morning for the longevity of this high, most models and ensembles (and the ensembles yesterday) say it is quite likely to still be very warm by the 11th still a decent ECM mean on the 12th July: Yes maybe, but you will never get a settled spell in this country that doesn't leave some coasts cooler.

Maybe, but I don't remember it showing for a while on Saturday. Fair enough though it didn't stop people moaning at some kind of breakdown at T+240 which apologies I thought you might have been referring to, but anyway that's gone from the operationals this morning

Really?.. 18z looks just fine to me. Some people will just never be satisfied. Hottest temps yet shown on the high res charts on the 18z - 30C in places

Really, where? Hottest temps yet shown on the 18z

UKMO is fine at t+144 building the high in more compared to at t+120 like most models do:

The 06z run does bring in a cooler flow a bit earlier than most other models and ensembles e.g the ECM, support though, Also relating to charts posted further up bear in mind that the lower resolution temp charts will not be able to correctly resolve temps in places like SW England, as there is only one point in Devon and Cornwall (in N. Devon) that the temp charts are plotted from that isn't over the sea (and none on the Netweather charts after T+192 The Met Office 16-30 day forecast still has this for the time being 'There are signals that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month should continue across most parts of the UK during at least the first half of this period. This means rainfall should be below average, with mainly above-average temperatures and above-average sunshine amounts.' I wouldn't be surprised if it did turn a bit more unsettled/cooler before the 16-30 day outlook though, but I'm not gunna worry about that yet or look for the end of this spell before it has even began, or concentrate on the negatives. Surely some aren't already despairing over one GFS 06z run after at least 5 days of very warm or hot weather in many places! the 06z is hardly a disaster either. The 06z ensembles show a few cooler members but even then mean 850hpa temps stay near 10C in the south right to the end of them.

I remember a few years back there being an F4 (I think) on the news that destroyed a town or village? think it was in Northern France. I seem to remember this being from a system/front coming off the Atlantic too though a severe threat was recognised with ESTOFEX issuing a forecast (can't remember what level but I think it might have been level 2). Edit: I think I've found it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2008_European_tornado_outbreak#Hautmont_tornado It was the town of Hautmont which was heardest hit (amongst others), near the Belgium boarder. Looking at the archive charts for the 3rd and 4th August (00z 4th closest to 'late on the 3rd'), it's not one I'd immediately think 'severe tornadic storm outbreak: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080804.gif

30C in the south if this verifies? The high may not get east of us much but they're excellent charts. In fact IMBY that chart could well give higher temps than a southerly with higher uppers, as a southerly would come off the sea. My hottest temps often come of easterly drifts e.g 33C at Exeter Airport on two days in the 1976 from the charts posted previously on this thread. the ECM does seem to show slightly higher uppers than some models like the GFS and the ensemble means, but high 20's in places at least look quite likely to me as long as there isn't now a shift in model outputs. Yes personally I'm also not going to worry yet about a retreat of the high pressure or whatever, considering the charts before that have only recently entered a more reliable timeframe. It may happen but is by no means certain of course although it will end somehow at some point. The Met Office outlooks say there are signals of the dry settled weather continuing with below average rain, above average sun and above average temps at least half way through their 16-30 day outlook. That would do very nicely if that was to occur, I think I'd be crying out for rain by then considering we've had no significant falls here since May here and the top of our lawn is already looking dry!

Only locally for coastal areas, much of the south will do fine, for me for example an easterly breeze is much better than a southerly one for the highest temps. However some coasts are likely to be a bit cooler at times due to developing sea breezes or onshore breezes with possibly the risk of patch or two of sea fog, but you would get things like that in nearly any settled summer spell. I think it should be pleasant enough on most coasts most of the time still.

A bit of a slow start here (mist/fog at first too) but the low cloud broke up between 11am and noon and it's now mostly sunny thankfully. Maybe not quite as warm as forecast locally yet but it's quite a pleasant day.

Well that's quite a lucky thing it's on a Sunday then nice here today, looks glorious at Glastonbury at the moment. The BBC and Met Office Websites at least show 21C in parts of the SE (19C for Luton though). GFS 06Z brought the high/warmth in a bit quicker than the 00z, but you either didn't notice or comment on that. Still looking like the 5th July will be the change over as in previous days. Edit: Gosh another one. The GFS 12Z isn't even out much past the 5th July yet, or wasn't when I saw the post. Why do there seem to be a cluster of miserable people from that part of the SE on here? in what is on average near the warmest part of the UK in summer.

Had a few brief sunny intervals here in the end. Bad luck with the timing and position of cloud here today. SE Devon i.e the Torbay area was more sheltered and had much more sun and temps into the 20's though. Places further east of here were also sunnier and warmer. Went to Exmouth this afternoon and there were a few more sunny intervals there to start but quite thick high cloud came in and made it feel cooler. Quite breezy on the beach. Just across the water to the south, towards Dawlish, Teignmouth down to Torbay was blue sky where temps had got higher today.

It's playing the same general ball as the other models, rising pressure and warmer temps after the 5th July, as are it's ensembles (I've already posted operational charts and Summer Sun has just posted the ensembles so won't repeat them here). Detail and whether it is a technical heatwave isn't really worth focusing on at this stage. Why is it right to be pessimistic, surely it's better to hold a more optimistic if neutral view?Anyway this post belongs more in the moaning thread..

I think I forgot to add that the post also mentioned it being at the end of Wimbledon so missing the best matches, if so that hasn't really changed. Things may have changed or got pushed back a day or two but that isn't too unusual at that timeframe and doesn't suddenly mean none of any of the warmth etc shown will verify. Doesn't mean they definitely will verify either though of course. I do remember a few runs one day that brought high pressure in much earlier, so granted your post could have been then at the suggestion of those charts, but the main theme has always been around the 5th July if I remember correctly. ECM joins/maintains the settling down theme after the 5th July, although the high doesn't look quite so 'robust' as on some other models, but it is an improvement on it's previous runs t+192 6th July: t+240 8th July: Any details to be resolved nearer the time if the current continued trend in the models is correct. It is by no means certain of course, although it is a pretty good trend amongst models (and the Met Office outlook) compared to the uncertainty/differences that can be shown. Admittedly there is perhaps more low pressure influence and cooler uppers briefly pulled in in the couple days before this compared to a couple days ago, but after this at least the general trend is still very much there for those that like warm settled weather.

The BBC at 6:30 said we're looking at mid 20's + in the SE and possibly the warmest day of the year so far (and the warmest day so far is at least 26C) I would expect Luton to be slightly down on the hotspots though being slightly further north and also relatively high in elevation if I remember correctly. It was always meant to be unsettled with the risk of rain with low pressure nearby. Also today's GFS 12Z is unlikely to be the final solution. Yesterday's GFS 12Z: Yesterday's GFS 18Z: Today's 00Z: Today's 06Z: Today's 12Z: Sorry for all the charts, but they are from the last 5 GFS runs for 1pm BST (2pm French time) and all show pretty much the same theme with low pressure influencing the UK, and rain or showers possible courtesy of Atlantic frontal systems.. in fact the 12Z looks the driest for the SE at 1pm Tuesday if anything! Sorry hopefully this is not too off topic, and shows what the GFS actually showed for Tuesday over the last 5 runs. Anyway I think this is meant to be the Model Output thread, not Moaning Output thread.. Not sure I've seen you make a post without a moan in it. I saw a post where you even moaned about possible good weather during Wimbledon saying it was 'typical' because you would want to be outside so couldn't watch Wimbledon! This is fine as long as you do it in the appropriate thread please, I'm sure many would want that. Sorry for a possibly slightly off topic/rant style post, Hopefully I won't make any more. Edit: apologies, I did not see ajpoolshark's post before I posted this, not sure how appropriate to this thread this post will seem now or how off topic but hopefully some is relevant.

Why do you feel sick? It's not a new revelation that Tuesday looks unsettled with low pressure having influence over the UK. Of course the details of exact rain band placements and intensities will change from run to run. A northerly is possible like almost any weather type, but more unlikely than what the models show and that's the best info we have at the moment. I don't think I liked that post but I think pretty much what I thought before really, i.e most models are trending towards warmer and settled weather building in about a weeks time. That trend is still very much there, and before that may be slightly more unsettled now but it looked changeable yesterday too. Not really sure of the problem you have with that post or the 7 that showed their agreement by liking it? Also one model run not supported by it's own ensembles which is how it stood last night is hardly a trend. If you are disappointed with changes to this general theme (for say the 5th July onwards) in the last couple days then really you are concentrating too much on the detail at that time frame. Must admit I'd like to see that part of the Arctic Ocean having higher surface temps than the UK next week. It's not like the UK is unusually cold at the moment. Personally I felt more pessimistic than usual after seeing the ECM last night, but am slightly relieved today that it's ensembles last night showed it had little support, and this morning's operational was an improvement with plenty of models still keeping the warmer settled mid term trend today and the best Met Office 6-15 day outlook yet. Of course, there's almost a week of weather that we seem to be mostly ignoring (including me) in this thread before we get there. FWIW the BBC just said it we're looking at the mid 20's plus in the SE on Sunday and it could be the warmest day of the year so far (higher than 26C then) I know that's not relevant to those further north or west but it's relevant to a few contributors to this thread. Seems like this post has turned into a longer one than I intended again!

Oh so as soon as the low cloud finally breaks up we suddenly have a load of high cloud swamp in at the perfect moment to stop sunshine.. not amused.

Where are my warm sunny intervals? 100% cloudy here

From my view point it's hardly like all the models suddenly show cool unsettled weather with the ensembles showing below average temps and above average rain or anything like that? There is still quite a lot of decent weather in the models this morning, I only see the ECM showing less in the way of this after day 7 or so but an improvement from yesterday and not a disaster. I also seem to get the impression there is a slight case of double standards here.. i.e those accusing others of looking at good charts in FI and saying it is unsettled in the reliable time frame and saying good weather is always in FI, have on different occasions looked to FI and trends there themselves when it is shown more unsettled instead (and maybe when it's more settled in the reliable timeframe), i.e the 'collapse from the NW' some were talking about a few days ago? given these trends are talked about why can't people talk about trends to settled/warm wither and higher pressure in FI? Admittedly people could state that there's uncertainty more (so not to mislead any newbies as some say) but I doubt it's just those posting warm/settled charts that don't do that. I'm not going to fall under the illusion that something akin to todays GFS FI is likely, but neither will I that we will be unsettled for the foreseeable with no sign of summery weather down the line. To me the average of the various outputs/ensembles etc still point to things probably becoming more settled/warmer in general especially towards the south after about day 7, as per the Met Office outlooks. Whether this trend comes to fruition we will have to wait and see. Also there is some decent weather in places in the reliable timeframe, i.e here today if the forecasts are correct, and Sunday for some areas.