Evening thunder

Yep but I'll be reasonably happy with average compared to recently (although not convinced of it reaching average soon but hopefully it will..) I have seen much wetter looking ensembles though,most of the time it's only a few ensembles going for any real rain at any one time there. However it looks like the unsettled pattern continuing for the time being, seems a bit odd for to me the models to suddenly jump from low heights over Greenland with with the Azores high trying to ridge in to us to High pressure over Greenland and a southerly tracking jet, that's FI I suppose. Wouldn't be surprised if the models showed something quite different tomorrow again, whether it's what many want to see or not. In fact the 18z already does show something quite different.

Time to panic people, summer or June is over based on one GFS run in FI The same model that was so correct with a much shorter-range pattern the other day and which people haled as such a great model (possible sarcasm)

Yeah I thought just that, even appears to have just happened based on one GFS run in far FI, the same model that was supposedly rubbish the other day when it was wrong with settled weather.. lol In that case a bit like the GFS it's self is likely to be then Also that looks like the GFS Control run to me not the ensemble mean, as it says 'Run de controle' on the top right and the ensemble mean won't show features as defined at T+300. One thing I have predicted and continue to predict this summer is what ever the actual outcome the GFS will throw up at least 1 or 2 outputs showing a Greenland High or similar in FI with the resultant claims that summer is over.

I bet there will be a thunderstorm or interesting convective weather at home in Devon today, seeing as I'm not there lol. Nothing of much interest here at uni yet this spring so maybe home will end up being more interesting than here for convective weather too while I've been here, as well as most other types of weather at other times of year lol. Edit: and there we go one of the heaviest cells developed so far now with a sefric a few miles away from my house and heading towards it.. quelle surprise

I notice the ECM ensemble mean has backed off it's northerly tonight, this is the mean at 168 hours: So interesting the mean has backed off more compared to the operational at 168 hours which is a bit further east tonight but still with cold uppers for a bit though not quite as cold or long lasting as this morning

Seems a spell of above average ensemble mean temps there, at least as much as there is cooler than average means? nothing too warm (i.e mid 20's) but feeling warm in any sunshine probably. Also only a few or definitely less than half of the ensembles are showing rain at any one time there, they could be the cooler runs but they don't look too wet (often seen much wetter) with quite a few ensembles also showing no rain on many days there. Anyway I don't think the ECM ensembles are as favouable for warmer weather with a cooler 850hpa temps (though not as low as now) at day 10 with possibly a more northerly flow and an average low centre somewhere near us.

Oh I see, I wasn't saying they were just using the point if anyone said it didn't have an effect you came closer to it. I thought it was 'pseudo cycles' which I thought meant not enough data to know if the cycles are true, at least in 30-year cycles, meaning they could just appear to be cycles (based on just one positive and negative cycle) at the present times.. not the science of studying the PDO. Mainly why I seldom post in the climate thread too, anywho I think I should probably stop contributing in making off topic posts in this thread. -------- I hope summer is reasonable of course, I'm not convinced it will be, wouldn't be surprised if it was on the cool or wet side again (I wouldn't mind wet too much if it was warm enough unless endless days of frontal rain), but I wouldn't be too surprised if it was average or even above, although I'm not expecting a really good one or a 2006 although it is possible of course, really I agree with thoughts and Met Office comments saying it's too early to write off summer. I have been looking at these graphs recently: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly and was surprised how many summers have been cooler in the past with 6 summers in a row in the 1960's cooler than any in the last 6 years for the UK average at least. There only really seems to be any real trend/unusual series of summers in terms of rainfall, although last summer was bad on the sunshine count. Nothing too unusual in recent summers/summer temps going off those graphs at leas, and past clusters of cooler summers appear to have reversed quite suddenly at times.

I think that's probably the max temps in the 12 hours from 12pm 12am, or possibly 6 hours from 6pm to 12am If we get a relatively slack northerly with not too much cloud cover/frontal activity and decent uppers like the GFS 12Z we could get a warmish day or 2, haven't seen these temps progged on the GFS in the high res time frame for a little while: The ECM also shows a day or two like this possibly: However it looks quite likely that it won't last too long with cooler air possibly coming down from the north or NW again afterwards: The GFS operational at least does hold on to warmer uppers if not completely settled weather for longer.

What? sorry to but in but viewing the discussion from outside it seems odd that you even completely make up peoples claims. Failure to accept any evidence because 'you don't want to' or don't take it into account, and then even make up claims of what people said to then use as ammunition is laughable and typical of some who see AGW though skeptical spectacles (nothing wrong in being skeptical in it's self if open minded...) Where on earth did he deny it's influence? you're the one that came close to that and said 'the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.' Sorry, felt like I had to say it.

59mph average wind reported from the Seven Stones light vessil between Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, that's storm force 10! At 4pm it was 7mph westerly, and 5pm a 59mph northerly. It's days like today where I'd actually rather be further west or at home rather than up here, I'd prefer some interest with wind/rain if it's going to be wet all day, rather than just light rain and overcast all day with temps just as low like it is here.IT's often more boring here in spells of Atlantic dominated weather in Autumn/winter, usually just moderate frontal rain at best, cloud, maybe a little windy and not much else.

Interesting, but again I wouldn't expect temps to be 0-2C below average at least away from the east coast with a summer pressure pattern of easterly winds and us half way between the high pressure and low pressure anomalies, indeed easterlies can bring hot spells in summer with the continent usually warmer than the sea, for the same reason that they are cold in winter. In fact where I will be in east Devon this summer I like the idea of an easterly dominated summer with warmth and thundery conditions brought off the continent. Again unless the low pressure anomaly is closer to us, I wouldn't expect generally above average precipitation with easterly winds. But then again it's only an idea and might be right. I'm going to take more notice of what the Met Office said yesterday though for now 'don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.' Hmm not sure I like the look of those 850hpa temp anomalies Gavin posted above, but then can LRF's/charts be accurate enough of the time to actually say under 20% chance of above average temps and that be the true probability, if that makes sense. I suppose average would be fine.

On the east coast it may well be I agree, but at home in Devon my hottest May conditions in recent years and in general have come off easterly flows with warm uppers, so inland and further west I still don't think it necessarily means below average, unless a renewed cold pool moves around the high, or cloud generated over the North Sea is unusually thick, or lows closer to the south of the country perhaps. That is something I forgot to put in my post though, it may be more accurate towards the east coast especially with below average SST's. I've also noticed the threat of heavier than usual rainfall predicted on some runs due to warmer uppers drawn into the mix this weekend. I am also not sure we will see a Scandi high giving such an influence over us for too long, the bigger worry for me would be whether we get something some GFS and ECM runs have hinted at recently with a renewed push of low pressure from the north west and associated renewed cool uppers and low temperatures, perhaps with a NW-SE tilted jet stream, but we don't really know yet and definitely agree it's too early to be writing off early Summer.

Not sure I agree with that video from the BBC completely, temperatures are not necessarily going to be cold with an easterly wind like shown, after all Scandinavia is about to get a notable warm spell with temperatures forecast in the mid 20's by the end of the week. Not necessarily too cold if we then had an easterly setting up in Late May then. The 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks on the Met Office site also suggest temperatures recovering to nearer normal with the chance of warmer weather increasing into June so I personally wouldn't be calling for temperatures 'distinctly below average' all of the time. The Met Office also said on their Facebook page today (presumably relating to a particular recent article by the Sun): 'Although there have been stories in the press saying we’re in for another washout summer, don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.' so I'm not going to really be worrying about much for summer as a whole yet Edit: also in a blog article: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/the-jet-stream-and-why-its-too-early-to-write-off-summer/

thanks, interestingly the rest of the article is reasonably sensible.

That didn't seem too unusual for me at first glance, and I just had a look at the average for Chivenor and the 1981-2010 average for the first 3 months of the year is 212.5mm so that is pretty much bang on average. Just had a look at the Camborne Jan-March average too, and it's 289mm so again pretty close to average (though actually a fraction below, not exceptionally wet like that paper or whatever reports). It's more that last year started pretty dry, and many years since 2007 have started drier than average. I think which ever media source printed that needs to check it's facts, it's amazing/annoying how inaccurate certain areas of the media can be with the weather at times. At home in East Devon we're currently on 17.6mm for the month so far, year to date total is 355.8mm

Didn't know summer was late May (yes you probably could pull that statement off in some recent years for parts of the country admittedly) But the Sun sees unsettled weather predicted for late May and says therefore this means the summer will be a washout? be interesting to see what they would have forecast for summer in May 2006: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060522.gif indeed they could be, same goes for any summer forecast of course (within reason) maybe not, but if that's the case is there any room for pessimism either, considering we don't really know what will happen? (general post not aimed at anyone in particular).

What Greenland high? see charts posted by phil nw which I was going to post, but he has already posted similar charts. Less of a Greenland high than in the archive charts for the 12th May 2006 that's for sure: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060512.gif Also I must say I will take far more notice of well structured posts with charts and evidence to back them up like post two by BFTV, than posts saying X won't happen because I say so, and apparently being able to say what will happen 3 months down the line based on I'm not sure what really, perhaps GFS charts that don't only go 15 days ahead and are likely to be pretty wrong, or previous years which usually don't mean much. Unsettled for the next week or two it looks like, after that, who really knows?

I feel I have to add my thoughts here, yes you could write a whole summer off, but you'd be taking one hell of a chance in doing so! Also as I recently posted in the Summer 2013 thread, May 2006 had a spell of northern blocking around Greenland with a resultant very unsettled spell following (similar windy low to this one on pressure charts), and after this things changed rapidly in June, followed by the hottest July on record.. If things can change following some high latitude blocking in May, why not in June? Also for what it's worth last summer had some decent days IMBY, last year twice seeing the highest temps since 2006 with a spell of decent days at the end of July and some more in August. Yes overall the summer was bad, and the wettest on record IMBY but as long as there's some decent temps and sunny days the rain doesn't bother me so much, just adds interest. It was quite bad overall (especially early Summer), but not a write off for me. You always will get a few years you can look back on and say 'we could have written that off and been correct' but I'm sure there's many examples that prove you can't really use that to predict in the future 'if X happens on June 1st or whenever we can write off most of the summer and won't be wrong'. Weather isn't that simple for a start.

Those min temp values are very unlikely to happen IMO, the GFS does seem to have an issue with predicting minima too low in pockets where it predicts very light winds these days. The 850hpa temps we are getting at that time are below average but not especially unusual either, have seen colder in May in recent years.

Not exceptional for May but I reckon a few sheltered western or north-western parts could get 23-24C if that were to occur (unlikely of course), after all they did today and uppers on those charts are a couple degrees higher. Wouldn't be as widespread warmth though with cloud/rain/showers etc in places of course but can think of much worse. Must admit those charts do tend to over-do the warm shadings I agree but I've seen Frosty09 use them quite a bit recently not just for warm weather so I don't think he cherry picked them just to make it look warmer.

That was why I was posting it, High latitude blocking and resultant unsettled UK weather in May doesn't mean much for summer due to what happened afterwards through June and July, so as TWS guessed I was pointing out that things changed very quick as we went into June that year. Although I could have made it clear by stating that I meant that or posting charts from June/July but assume most know what happened next. Having had a quick look May 1995 also had high latitude high pressure at times, e.g http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950512.gif mixed with warmer spells. Following on from that was a famous hot summer. I was thinking I can imagine what some posts about summer/early summer and it's prospects would be like if we had a similar sequence this year to the two May 2006 charts I posted, and they wouldn't be predicting what actually happened in summer 2006.

I'm not sure but I'm guessing Backtrack might have purposely used a very excessive figure just as a way of saying 'a lot'. I've seen suggestions that this forecast unsettled spell or a bit of high pressure up north is bad news for the summer with a few probably wanting to write it off. In reality it doesn't really mean much IMO. For example May 2006 had a Greenland high: followed by a very unsettled spell:

Very nice here just to the west of the M25, just some scattered cumulus. I remember reading the Met Office forecast for the SE and I thnik it mentioned a build up of cloud particularly around London and some surrounding areas. Heathrow reporting 21C currently, back home it's cooler due to an onshore breeze and some mist around the coasts, but has reached 15.7c, a bit higher than forecast again. Although it appears to have just got a couple degrees cooler there.

Just seen that video too, looks like it was yesterday (Friday) from the description.

Something looks seriously wrong with those charts though since when do you get +5C monthly temp anomalies over Shetland and a large area north of Scotland, especially with that corresponding pressure anomaly for July suggesting on average NW winds there?! I have seen similar odd looking charts posted elsewhere occasionally though. Hopefully it will however be a good festival and better summer period if we're lucky. Junes pressure anomaly does look good there at any rate.