Evening thunder

Yes it does seem to be pretty close to what they are predictingThankfully at T192 the low doesn't slip SE quite like I thought it might with a ridge holding on in the south at least. Edit.. oh it does at T216.. while Finland/Sweden bakes as normal.. probably too far off to really pay attention to and a middle ground between models may be better, although being the ECM I don't really like seeing this, and it follows the 00z run (although the 00z ensembles were better).

Low forming south of Greenland at T+168 looks like it might be ready to drop south east.. not sure I'm gunna like this run

Not really keen on the ECM T+144 hours chart.. cool northerly with 0-2C uppers, no thanks: At least there will be some sunshine so maybe not too bad, but coolish day temps and cold nights for June possibly. Hopefully the high can edge further east with warmer uppers coming into the mix, but something looks to be trying to form or hold on in the North Sea..

Can you please tell me how you know they were wrong on AGW, and how it's a fairy tail, with your crystal ball you must have taken you 50 years into the future? Although I can understand if you can't and this would be sensitive info..

Yes I agree, I'd like to experience it just to see what it's like (briefly, with an air conditioned room nearby) but would find it very uncomfortable I suspect. However with my interest in weather I do like some extremes and find these things particularly hot/thundery plumes like this in Summer interesting and worth commenting on, and that seems a bit remarkable if that happens, that's the UK all time record there.

Not particularly warm though: Hopefully it would get warmer if that high pressure manages to hold on, rather than get flattened by the next low forming south of Greenland. Hopefully at least a few positive signs salvageable though, should not feel too bad in the sun there would like some at least average temps into/through July for once though.

wow is that a 38C just on the German side of the Netherlands/German boarder!

Good sunset here this eve too Pretty dark and menacing to the south too, looks as if it could go flash at any minute, but not heard anything for quite a while and no new sefrics showing.

Nice distant rumble then ('loudest' so far but still pretty distant and quiet of course) they don't seem very frequent at the moment though, and sometimes planes about to be annoying. Edit: another 2 decent ones then that most members of the public should be able to hear and probably recognise as thunder.

Just went out to look for something in my car, heard 2 very distant rumbles! first one I wasn't sure, but 2nd one was definite, I can't mistake that deep low rumble of (very) distant thunder now!

That's an interesting storm in the channel, also sky quite grey from mid level cloud down to the south, but just noticed a W-E line of Ac cas towers have now formed, interesting. Interesting that you can hear it from Plymouth now, wonder if it will get close enough to here. I remember seeing distant flashes and rumbles from storms in the middle of the channel one evening at the end of April 2011!

Surface based storms yeah, but the main threat for the UK tonight into tomorrow are mid-level based storms which are above the boundary layer fueled by the advection of a warmer moist air mass higher up than the surface, so the channel should not effect these hopefully (like the storms that hit the IOW and Falmouth areas early this month) Wednesday does look more like a home grown/surface based risk though.

GFS isn't always under-doing maxima, though maybe it's more location dependant. GFS and the Met Office predicted 17C for here yesterday, it's actually turned out to be 22C with sunny intervals.

The BBC forecast at 1:30pm used the word 'thunderstorms' both at the beginning and end of the forecast to describe Wednesday also at last mentioned temps may reach the high 20's and showed 28C over the SE on one of those Europe air mass temp map things (With blue and yellow/orange shading) Didn't make much of tonight though, just showers, but then the local forecast for the SW went for 'thundery downpours' with potentially up to 50mm falling in the hour in spots in Devon and Cornwall (didn't expect that). Edit: a patch of quite interesting undulating mid-level cloud to my west, looks quite thundery. Feeling pretty warm and humid here now, some bright with a few patches of blue sky, temp now 20.8C, dew point 14.9C

I do think they have been/might be under-doing maxima for this week in parts of the south, unless there aren't any cloud breaks at all which I don't think there will be the case. However in some cases forecasters can only do as well as the models etc providing the data? I feel like I could insert a little moan this morning though: Why does the ECM seem intent on positioning low pressure in just the way to get almost the coldest uppers possible over us, as it often does. Doesn't show the low centre over us with a chance of sunshine and heavy/convective showers, and feeling better between them with lighter winds, just has it a bit further NE with strong cool winds. I try to be more positive than some and say the models aren't as bad as they could be and some describe them worse than they are, but then they get worse.. hints of HP moving in at T+240 get pushed back with the ECM looking to do the cold NW/N'erly all again after t+240.. Hopefully the ECM ensembles which are a bit better will be closer to the mark at that range, or indeed the GFS 06z.

I just got the error for the first time when clicking this thread.

Later tomorrow and tomorrow night reminds me a bit of the event that clipped parts of the south coast earlier this month particularly around the IOW and Falmouth, only the 850hpa temps this time become slightly higher and perhaps slightly further north. Maybe someone could get lucky? Edit: post from Nick F sounds pretty nice.

Maybe lol, I forgot to add that I am looking for/wanting warmth too, just wanting to focus on other positives or not so bad things, maybe my mind has got bored of getting fed up of recent summers lol. I do find it a little frustrating if nothing is showing up for a while like now, just don't think conditions are always quite as bad as some describe. I was in Egham until yesterday, there were some decent days at the beginning of June for me, and a decent afternoon a couple days ago, but yes quite a bit of cloud recently too, I haven't found the wind too bad but I sometimes quite like the wind in the trees. Has lacked warmth though (as in above average temps, saw 21-22C at Heathrow in early June), I guess this year hasn't had warmth before summer too like late May 2012 I should probably stop being a bit off topic, so on a more on-topic note I noticed comparing uppers on the UKMO 12z to the GFS 12z the plume of warm uppers seem slightly further west on the UKMO at midday Wednesday, so maybe not a downgrade in temps and storm risk to the same extent as the GFS 12z, though nothing like the GFS 06z showed.

The feed doesn't really look like being off the north sea on Wednesday and not strong enough to influence Staines anyway, Looks like you were right about the GFS overdoing maxima though due to it showing the plume too far west and it has now shifted things east, unless it changes back again. What comes after Still get 19C maxima afterwards in the SE, maybe a tad higher. Probably some sunshine with some showers. This is using the 06Z which was the latest at the time of your post. The 12z is pretty much the same. Not that unusual for June. If you think the GFS is 'shear awfulness' you can't remember last June that well. Granted, not good at the moment for those only looking for warm/settled or heatwave weather, but then those just looking for that will be unhappy for more of UK summers than they will not be. With a bit of luck apart from a few fronts most of the LP showing up now will be more 'sunshine and showers' type weather.

Looks like a convergence line should provide a decent trigger should the GFS 00z happen exactly as progged: This coincides with the best CAPE and sudden outbreak of precip (likely thunderstorms) at around this time: Of course the details of this are very unlikely to verify exactly as shown right now, with considerable changes likely, but we'll see and could well get something interesting happening somewhere.

I remember that event, although not at the festival myself. I remember storms and torrential rain here for a few hours with nearby thunderstorms at other times like the early hours giving quite frequent lightning. Some spectacular and close lightning during the storms that were overhead too. I remember later hearing the news reports of Glastonbury as the system passed to the north east, although we might not have been hit as hard as Glastonbury was. There were definitely some severe storms in this country on the 28th June last year though and possibly other dates since then, unless you mean ones you've witnessed?

How is that lame and not strictly true.. I can't see anything they say that isn't true at this stage? Only the last small paragraph depending on where you live could I understand some not really agreeing with. Lol surely what you're saying is backing up their point i.e we don't really know what will happen after June, and hence summer's not over yet as in we can't write it off yet? Also some models like GFS, ECM show a couple warm days for the south next week, sun dry and warmth for those days.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/13/never-mind-the-stories-summer-is-not-over-yet/

Quite a nice day up here with a fair bit of blue sky now, Nice after the cloudy morning and much of recent days. I am going home for summer tomorrow so shall then be in East Devon As for the models, don't look quite as bad as some describe to me, with average temps and rainfall if the GEFS is to be believed at least: (yes I know London isn't really in our region but it is the closest location showing the average like and precip on the same chart to show what I am referring to, we wouldn't be too different on an ensemble mean. The main difference is probably the GFS slightly overdoing the warmer uppers next week compared to us with a plume perhaps grazing the SE) Tomorrow does look quite windy mind (I don't mind that every now and then)

There have also been some slightly more positive tweets though, to quote part of a recent post in the MOD thread: Given the last tweet I wonder if the MetO 15-30 day outlook will change tune a bit today? (as that is after week 2) it has been consistent for a changeable/unsettled regime recently (although that is not all bad).