Evening thunder

That looks to me like it's just the scale colours at the bottom shifting rather than the SST's shifting, i.e for some reason the latest chart uses the same colour range for a temp range of 0-20C whereas the top chart it was 5-20C. There is another link I have been using recently to monitor SST's, but for some reason it hasn't been working for the last couple of days. It did show temps in the North Sea increasing 1-2C during the recent settled spell in June, and more like 3C just west of Britain i.e off the S and W coasts of Ireland (from about 11C to about 14C if I recall correctly) and also close to some West UK mainland coasts. As a side note on the 5th June I went to the beach in NE Kent with friends and the shallow sea was surprisingly warm, the tide was low but it had started coming in and must have been flowing over warm sand.

Quite, shows what can happen if the weather feels like it, just 7 days after that 2nd chart Exeter Airport recorded it's joint hottest temp ever in the record from 1973 to now that I use (33C there and 35/36C in places in S. UK I believe), the other date to equal it was the next day! You would probably been called mad to predict that a week later off the above chart. Not expecting such an evolution or one with HP building over us for now but shows what can happen and no one can 'write off' a summer in June at the moment and be confident of being correct based on current charts. True but that's quite similar to now then? Definitely a lot less northern blocking than that chart posted above by TWS! admittedly it's probably not too common for things to follow the evolution that they did that year, but if that occurred today summer would certainly be over on some peoples watches! That is one I will save for whenever someone tries to tell me summer is a write off when it's June. They could be right, but that would be more 'luck' or chance than a guarantee or sensible forecasting IMO.

Wish I could but not going to believe it this time especially with runs like the ECM 12Z saying no with a capital N.

I think part of the issue may be the way some describe or have downbeat attitudes that can suggest to some others that it almost will be day after day of rain or cloud, even if they didn't perhaps mean that themselves. Some just seem to moan or have too negative views of weather in the UK considering what are average weather is at times I feel Yes quite agree, and hence 'unsettled' isn't necessarily bad for everyone (give me a sunshine and convective thundery showers day any day) In that respect maybe I'd rather an unsettled pattern as it would more suit my weather interest, as long as there were a decent amount of warm sunny spells in-between (also want some rain for plants, crops etc), however the problem may be there is no guarantee of that. The only thing wrong with this upcoming spell of weather to me could be that temps may be a bit lower than preferred, although it's possible I won't get as much sunshine I'd like depending on details nearer the time. Anyway I feel I'm drifting a bit off topic now.

Well no we are unlikely to get a 76, 83, 95, 06 summer etc, but I never expected that this year. Admittedly the models at the moment are rather disappointing but there is still plenty of time for some decent summer weather to pop up at times, even a hot spell or 2 who knows. So no unfortunately I can not agree with it being time to 'write off summer' considering the above is perfectly possible, and it would not be a safe bet at all. Even last year I was sat out one late July evening having a BBQ at about 27C at 6-7pm (my hottest summer temp since 2006). There were some decent days in August too (and September) and hence the summer was not a complete write off, which would be very rare. Maybe it's just an interpretation thing but to me 'write off summer' means no hope of warm summary days to come this summer.. anyway June is already not a write off in many western/some central parts You could choose to 'write off summer' every time a 06/03/95 etc doesn't look like occurring, but I'd rather not hold that depressing view 9 years out of 10.. anyway I'd probably get bored of a Mediterranean style summer and want some variability.

Ah fair enough, it may be just that my interpretation of dank is dull, cloudy, drizzly and mild (in winter) weather, which I would hope wouldn't dominate a relatively average looking ensemble set in June. Agree that there isn't that much exiting in the charts at the moment though. Also agree about this mornings charts being better! they were much more interesting warmth/thunder wise even if it did only last a couple days.yeah very rare for the UK not to have some cooler/more unsettled weather in Summer, even some of the famous ones have I think. In this pattern I hope the Azores high can ridge in more favorably for the south at times like some models hint at and the Met Office 6-15 day outlook might suggest, but not sure if it will or if it will give much in the way of more settled days at the moment

That looks no worse than average ensembles to me, surely not 'dank', apart from a few days here and there maybe, last June would be closer to that?

Both the GFS and UKMO have now reverted to cool lows and a windy autumnal one on the GFS.. nice of them to all (GFS, ECM, UKMO) to briefly show a warm/hot thundery plume and make us think perhaps we could get something interesting like that these days.. The Abores high ruining things for both warm settled weather fans and storm fans, directing cool unsettled weather over us once again. Hey ho I guess it's back to hoping for something decent later in the summer, baring a surprise shift back to the plume again. I Wanted to get something good under our belt as such considering recent summers and the lack of such set ups..

Aaand now instead of a possible interesting warm/thundery plume next week, an autumnal low is shown instead oh well cheers models for briefly letting us think that perhaps we could still get warm/hot thundery plumes these days.. The Abores high is once again ruining chances of both warm/thundery interesting weather and summery weather, directing cool unsettled weather from the NW over us once again..

I think the point is when it sits in it's usual location it usually directs coolish NW winds over the UK with rather uninteresting weather. Sometimes alright for those just after dry conditions but sometimes not. If you 'invert' those charts ie replace the Azores high with a low you get a E/SE feed over the UK with much warmer weather, probably not properly settled in that instance, more thundery, but in some cases it would be and warmer The Azores high can be pretty good of course if it displaces and/or throws a substantial ridge over us, (though usually it is technically no longer an Azores high then) but overall I think if it was not a semi-permanent feature of Earth's atmospheric circulation we would fare a bit better in the summer (and probably get more thunder too). Anyway hopefully this year with low heights further north we have a heightened chance of it displacing or ridging east/NE over parts of the country at times, one can hope at least.

Ah ok fair enough Not completely sure but I think Wetterzentrales CAPE charts may include ML CAPE as I've seen them show lots more than the Netweather GFS ones in plume events before They perhaps show a little more but not too much Edit: actually comparing them it seems similar to Netweather at that time, so perhaps they don't now. Maybe someone has NW Extra ML CAPE charts or something.

That Skywarn forecast seems rather OTT to me considering this is the CAPE tomorrow: Granted good shear but we often seem to get that around lows like this but like tomorrow not coinciding with much instability, in a relatively normal looking Tm flow? I guess it being summer means a slightly higher risk, who knows maybe this occasion is different. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few sefrics amongst some rain/showers tomorrow somewhere but nothing too notable or severe is my guess, and surely not enough CAPE for large destructive hail? yes forcing from fronts but again this is common from such weather systems in the UK and I've never known large hail from them without decent CAPE? I don't know if many people think theres a strong storm risk then maybe something isolated that's organised? or maybe I'll be wrong but not something I'd be happy chasing anyway. It would be nice if some of the charts for next week come off, then we could be more in business in places.

Oh interesting not too good, though at least we don't have as much chance of below average temps as southern Europe and the Med. Surprised there can be over 80% confidence of below, also kind of surprising considering the above average pressure anomalies shown stretching across that area. Maybe it's due to below average SST's in the Med which could go part way to explaining both.

Lol from 4C to 24C uppers over part of France Guess this shows there's quite a lot of uncertainty over the evolution of that low at the end of the weekend and the resultant weather that follows for the UK.

Haha there's no pleasing some people.. or even much point in attempting to explain. I went to a BBQ last Monday with friends after a day at the beach, as well as being tasty food, had comfy chairs and a nice outside atmosphere and environment.. vary life a little, sitting in the same indoor room 365 evenings a year could be a bit boring. Most people I know don't have one as soon as the sun's out or I'd have a BBQ like 100 days a year lol, just a different and nice way of eating occasionally and enjoying the outside and summer, esp with friends or a party as there might be not much space inside anyway. like everything not everyone likes BBQ's, but what's the problem if other people want to have a BBQ sometimes though it's not your problem. Would be a bit odd to get annoyed at that and let it be your problem?

I agree there really, more often than not it seems to do us no favours and is way overrated. Only when it ridges across us, or moves east or forms a high pressure cell building well near the UK which is what many look for really (and then it is not really an Azores high). It being there does at least mean it can move over the UK, but then if it wasn't there with slacker pressure or a trough in it's place we would probably get better weather over us or a downstream ridge/high (your Euro high), possibly with warm southerlies over us (instead of a downstream trough and/or cool northwesterlies) Probably more interesting weather too with Spanish plumes and more thundery activity. Of course it can bring us benefits, I'm just not sure they outweigh the not so good effects overall. The ECM at T+240 does show some signs of it improving and high pressure perhaps moving in from the west though, although too far off to read much into it really.

Yeah, been quite good here just west of London bar today and a couple mornings too, and for some other more eastern areas I assume if you don't mind slightly cooler maxima than some western areas. Days like today with low cloud over some eastern parts give the biggest difference.

Wind direction really makes all the difference for different places at times in this country, many western areas have been enjoying perfect summer weather for a week or more with temps into the 20's and cloudless skies, where as eastern areas have been cooler and at times very cool and cloudy. Later this week things will reverse a bit with warmer weather in the east due to the wind direction. In the west I would crave these summer spells with easterly surface flow, whilst if I lived in the east I would be longing for them to leave. When I am not at uni I am much closer to the west scenario so usually like similar set ups to the current one. Am currently at uni although been decent here usually, would have been great to be in Devon, great place to be in this excellent weather they had.

Sunny up here now but 16-17C compared to almost 21C at home, even the settled/warm spells are being warmer and better at home than here while I'm up here lol.

I agree to an extent, but there isn't really much other space left, due to grass cut for hay or most people being obsessive over neat and tidy gardens and lawns. It's great for the people that have larger gardens though and habitats away from roads are even better of course. On motorways there are often larger banks with some grassy areas set back from the road, and many of the banks/verges are on quieter roads or quiet country lanes. Cutting close to the road in some cases I am ok with, but often areas further in and completely out of the way are strimmed. In most cases what is cut was not a visibility hindrance to emerging traffic in my experience I also think the uncut verges often look great compared to the mess or yellow/brown grass left afterwards.

Been warm at times in areas like the SW which are doing well, for example yesterday 22.6C at home, 3-4C above the early June average. 21-22C here at uni which is closer to the June average up here.

Finally! the number of times I see strimmers come and pointlessly strim long grass verges and areas as a variety of flowers are out or about to burst into colour.. to leave a mess of shriveling grass cuttings that turn brown and don't even look tidier at all, along with brownish short grass. Just yesterday it might have been, I heard a display of bluebells was accidentally mown down. These are often along quieter lanes too, e.g some visible from my home in Devon that aren't in the slightest blocking the view of road traffic, there is a hedge far closer to the road hiding some of the grass that gets cut anyway (a small section last year was left due to some Japanese knot weed presence and them not wanting to spread strimmings of it - a blessing in disguise.) Considering virtually all other areas get cut, lawns, or hay fields etc, it seems just ridiculous to mow down these areas too which all that does is threaten wildlife, reduce habitats for species like bees and flowers in decline, and wastes money which could be better spent elsewhere.

Wow didn't expect that to see that on the radar and lightning detectors this morning, only looked due to a light shower here. Kind of heading towards home, but better not hit, didn't look that good a chance so am up here at uni! That would be so typical though.. even warm spells are being warmer at home atm than here near London while I'm at uni here lol!

Ah many thanks for that. Looks interesting especially with the archive as well. Seems to agree in part with the link I posted.

No one 'needs' it, and I wouldn't want it much of the time, but I'd find it interesting to feel and record for data and I'm sure many interested in weather and data collection would. You could make that point about most weather types, i.e no one needs -10C, or heavy rain events, or snow, etc, but one time a while ago where people were saying who would want rain, I think I've seen you make the point (which I agree with) that rain can make interesting statistics and data comparison (as well as me finding heavy torrential rain/showers interesting).