Evening thunder

Interesting that's different from this page which I have been watching recently and appears to have something to do with the Met Office http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2 it shows anomalies reducing around the UK in recent days, and positive anomalies just west of SW England! (and around some coasts where it has for a while, but been showing that for a while and not sure if that would be normal but shows +ve on anomalies as the data set used for the climate average isn't so detailed?) We now have 13C SST's just west of the UK (See link below anomaly map on the site I gave above) which were more like 11C before this warmer sunny spell started, and 12C+ around some of our coasts. Not sure which to believe when they say different things? inclined to believe the one I've linked to as more detailed, was hoping all the sunshine was helping SST's warm a bit anyway. Ah that's another one I haven't seen, out of interest how does it compare to other sites posted around the UK region if it shows that?

Haha brilliant (from the stream, found it quite amusing) Sure he'd collect better dats if he was the right way up though lol

Given that our hottest flows can tend to come from the SE, with the short sea track I don't think the SST's will necessarily have much of an impact on the 850hpa temps and hence won't really impact the near surface temps reached inland/away from windward coasts. Of course that depends on us getting the appropriate flow, and cold anomalies around Iberia and the Med may reduce the warmth of warm plumes coming from that direction slightly? perhaps warm easterlies or south-westerlies would be slightly cooler than they otherwise would be.

The chart the UKMO shows gives quite a high likelihood of good weather for the SW, W (i.e Wales), Ireland, NW, and much of Scotland at least though. Quite a tasty chart for me in my normal location of east Devon, I can't remember similar charts at this time of year that haven't given some warm sunshine even if a couple may have had a bit of patchy cloud (perhaps from the North Sea) a minority of the time. Indeed due to the location of the English channel it is pretty much the best wind direction (at least at the surface) for warm temperatures at home. A low closer to the south shouldn't be a problem for my preferences as it could add some thundery interest. Of course in the east particular and maybe even some central areas sometimes it may not be so appealing, so can understand those near the east coast not feeling too enthusiastic over the charts if they want warm sunny weather, although the winds are quite light in the northern half of the UK. I would rather be at home for this spell than just west of London (even with similar weather it's better to be in Devon..) but don't think the weather will be too bad here with charts like the UKMO run. As often is the case it is a matter of location.

I think I agree with Summer Blizzard that if we get 9C uppers over a decent enough part of the country with some sunshine and not too strong winds we are likely to see 23-25C in some places, perhaps most likely in sheltered parts of the west. Yesterday reached 22C in parts including at home in east Devon with 6-7C uppers (although the wind was northerly not easterly). Have seen 26C at home earlier in May 2008 with uppers about 10C although the flow may have been slightly different then (still surface easterly at home which is often the best direction there) Anyway this of course depends on whether we do get 8-10C (or higher) uppers drawn over the country. as TWS says the synoptic set up with this spell looks quite similar to June 2007 so the settled spell now doesn't necessarily mean much for the rest of summer, but hopefully it won't follow that route. The ECM Op may not be such a good run in the longer term this morning.. but if that does happen I will enjoy this spell before that. Edit: if you look at the first half of June 2007 on Weather Online quite a lot of days reached 23-25C in places some a bit higher: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1181386800&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

I'd reckon similar to today's in the south at least given similar uppers: So probably low 20's in parts of the south of the UK (and Ireland on this chart) and high teens in other places, perhaps cooler on windward coasts.

I think IMO the 850's are more important in summer, given enough sunshine and no onshore wind near the coast an approx figure I use is to add 15C to the 850's to get the max temps. For example about 850's about 6-7C across Devon today has given a max of 21.8C, warmest of the year by far despite a northerly wind. Southern Ireland has uppers of about 4C this afternoon so 17C isn't unexpected I rarely see maxima more than say 18C above the 850hpa temps no matter how high the pressure, but even in relatively low pressure given enough sunny breaks maxima can still be near 15C above 850hpa temps. SW France forecast over 32C with 16C uppers but in a trough on 7th June on the GFS 06Z. Anyway of course you need to know it isn't going to be too cloudy to use that as a guide of course. I reckon the GFS is forecasting lots of low cloud off the North Sea on that day given the low maxima shown. I am pretty sure that if we don't get much problem with low cloud from the north sea much of the country will do reasonable for max temps, maybe a cooling effect starting within 20-50 miles of the coast if breeze is quite strong, closer to the coast if the breeze is light. I have seen similar scenarios quite a bit with late spring/early summer easterlies (in fact often my highest temps of recent years in east Devon have come of easterly surface flows with 850hpa temps at or slightly above 10c, although we are further west there. That chart shows the 16th December, temps are a bit warmer close to the coast in places now although not actually too much warmer in parts of the North Sea: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 the below average SST's are likely to have slightly more influence on air temps and increase the likelihood of some mist/low cloud though probably, although for places that aren't effected, if inland, temperatures should be alright (often around average or above) for June I think based on current charts and 850hpa temps.

Also the first 20C of the year at home in East Devon, reached 21.7C there just now, very nice.I was beginning to think we would have a spring without 20C being reached but the last day has saved it! shame I'm not there to enjoy it though as had to go back to uni yesterday evening. I have also been recording since 2008 in spring (October 2007) and this is the latest 20C date unsurprisingly. 2010 waited until the 21st though (and almost broke 25C at 24.9C), and 2009 waited till the 23rd May. Last year did it in March lol.

Good luck with that These charts from various models this morning (some more reliable than the 06z GFS which you have picked ok-looking charts from, and which much of the run is decent) happen to lie in the first week of June

Yeah, a few localized potent showers in S/E Devon one missed me by a mile or so with hail apparently, but nothing thunder wise. Looked better a couple days ago but typically things were further west with instability lower and/or not quite far enough east.

A nice ECM if you're after generally settled weather and feeling pleasantly warm by day with high pressure near or over the country, for example: Although that chart perhaps looks warmer than it would be with 850hpa temps of 4-5C Suggesting temps may touch 20C or slightly above in some sports in sunny calm conditions but probably not much more, still a nice pleasant looking run, one possible danger with this is the high building or slipping too far west with time allowing a cooler flow over us again, though as often too much uncertainty to really dwell on things or expect a more prolonged settled spell yet. None the less good signs for reasonable weather within time frames dealt with by the models, can't complain really.

Ahh now we can't find cold/wet looking charts closer to the current time we have to go off hunting further out and post in here Doesn't necessarily mean it will be bad though IMO, SW winds probably wouldn't be as cool as last summer and if returning polar maritime could in theory be bright/showery. Doesn't mean it is going to happen either I seem to recall their forecasts went for drier than average conditions in spring into summer last year. Not knocking the Met Office one bit as I don't think anyone else is better really, just saying I will not give too much worry over that yet especially when resolving a far shorter timeframe is proving troublesome. On a slightly different note the UKMO T+144 chart is very nice this evening, so at least a few settled warmer days hopefully. I think we should be reasonably happy with the current outlook as even if the ensemble mean charts don't show full on high pressure, how often will they ever at the 7-10 day range? in the same way the fact they don't show a well defined low doesn't necessarily mean it will be settled, not showing a well defined high doesn't necessarily mean it will be unsettled, if that makes sense. The relatively high pressure showing i.e the ECM 00Z ensemble means, e.g N means a reasonable chance of decent weather hopefully I'd have thought. No guarantee as always, or a heatwave or unanimous settled weather but I'm not going to be disappointed just because of that unless I want to be disappointed 90% of the time.

Another ground frost last night down to 1.3c, yesterdays min was 0.9c, 2c colder than the average min for January 2013 (and only 3.3c higher than Januaries or Februaries absolute low, that more shows the lack of cold mins in winter here). Yesterday was lovely though. Currently increasing cloud with a fresh/gusty SW breeze, 12.5c after reaching 13.7c at 11am.

You may be right about that and it just being some more realistic posts, just the charts like the GFS and ECM ensembles I have seen recently suggested high pressure building nicely near the UK settling things down, and the runs I had seen this morning didn't seem too bad, but then I will be happy with more average conditions for the time of year and am not necessarily looking for heatwave conditions. I fully agree with people that advise caution to a settled outlook especially at the timeframe shown, and the models could swing back to a cool unsettled low pattern like recently, I just don't think they have done that overnight and personally think the mid range outlook isn't too bad right now bad using the charts I easily have access to. This may also be because I am in Devon at the moment and it has shelter from E/NE surface flows like suggested if high pressure is to out north, or at least weaker than usual westerlies if pressure is lower than normal to the south and higher than normal to the north. Locally my warmest weather usually comes with an easterly surface flow. Also thanks for posting those ECM ensemble charts, hasn't managed to find any that had updated this morning. Many thanks John , I think was was confusing me was I presumed with a W/NW flow West Scotland would be more unsettled with low pressure presumably to the north rather than being the most settled/warmest location like on the Met Office longer range forecasts, which I presumed to imply high pressure to the north and low pressure over the continent a more NE/E flow making west Scotland more sheltered and closer to the high. I think this is similer to GFS and ECM ensembles recently but obviously they show surface flow and there are other forecasting tools that perhaps give a better idea. I was expecting my confusion to be due to me more having the wrong idea/interpretation and was not questioning your interpretation but my own one, because you have more experience and understanding of these charts, thanks again for explaining that I understand what you were meaning now.

I don't understand some of the negative/downbeat posts in here this morning? even the GFS is showing a more average June affair not the cold northerly winds we've seen recently. I also must admit I don't really understand what John says about the upper flow always being suggested from the W/NW with only one or two summary days at best, especially with ensemble means like the ECM from last night (conveniently today's are just showing as blank yet and can't view yesterdays now on Wetterzentrale) which would clearly give more than 1 or 2 summary feeling days even if the upper flow was still somehow W/NW'erly, with high pressure stretching near or across us and decent and warming 850hpa temps?

According to the GFS Finland and that area is going to start summer with 30C heat lol: They do seem to be able to sustain long periods of well above average temperatures in summer in recent years, far better than us of course. Even recently they seem to have been getting into the 20's for several days and are forecast to for the next several days, and reached and at least 26C in parts several days to a week ago I think. At least 22-24C often higher somewhere in Finland for the entire GFS run Anyway hopefully the signs of a better start to summer for us continue to build with a bit of luck.

Am at home in East Devon at the moment Min of 0.9c last night brr... that's 2c colder than January 2013's average min. Warmed up quickly though and feeling pleasant out in the garden with light winds, currently 15.4C and sunny

Interesting, although that appears to be from yesterdays 00z runs, be interesting to see what todays show and if it still shows the same trend.

Haven't seen an ensemble mean this good for settled weather for a while: A good sign to see at least. With 850hpa temps around 5C maxima would probably be around 20C perhaps creeping above in one or two spots away from windward coasts or sea breezes, although the uppers would probably rise in the following days should something like the ECM mean materialise. A little way to go though I think with the GEM and ECM operational runs bringing a cold pool back down over us trying to form more of a trough/low near us in the process again, although they bring some more settled and slightly warmer weather before that and I think there are some good signs to be had this morning for more settled/warmer weather after most of next week.

That shows an above average June, July and August though? Also in relation to some previous posts it looks like I must be imagining the charts that some models are showing and are being posted in the model output discussion thread then Maybe further out and uncertain, but so is cooler weather at further out time frames and each have just as much right to be discussed surely?

Surely it would be when a 30 year average came out showing June or whatever month to be cooler in that 30 year average?

Yes I guess this spring has been better for the garden, without an early warm start for things to go downhill or a soggy dull cold April in places, although Spring 2012 wasn't too bad for sunshine at home, with only April a bit below average, March above average and May slightly above average. At any rate I hope June is where me preferring 2012 to 2013 ends.

Those ensembles show mean temps around average though further out with pressure not too low either. A specific warm chart is just as likely to be right/wrong as a specific cold chart. Not sure if the ECM ensembles will reach average when they come out though. I'd actually prefer the UKMO run, the ECM just brings colder,sub-zero uppers into the west once again similar to the GFS which would probably result in the higher CAPE and instability kept further east with mainly just the SW missing out (where I will be next week) as shown by the GFS charts. The UKMO brings the low centre over us down here which is likely to be more unstable and provide more sunshine/slow moving heavy thundery showers for my location with more instability like the GFS has shown when it brought the low over us. Just due to personal preference and location though of course. Looking at it again I can see how the UKMO would be worse for the NE instead.

Certainly hope this springs weather doesn't continue for much longer, and not a spring I'd want to repeat either. March had the potential to be interesting but wasn't for snow or low min temperatures for me. April 2008 had a min just as cold as anything for this entire winter season including March. at home in East Devon I preferred all 3 months of spring 2012, due to: March: Record warmth at the end of the month, 21C (and an absolute low only 1.2C higher than 2013 despite March 2012 being a very mild March) April: quite a lot of interesting sunshine and convective showers days, some with heavy hail and thunder, had 2 days of thunder and a separate 2 of heavy hail at my house). May: Very warm/hot spell towards the end of the month which gave my hottest temperature recorded in any month since 2006. This year however, none of that. Highest max a pitiful 17.4C, over 10C lower than last springs highest max. Limited other weather interest except remarkable persistence of below average day temps and slight night frosts in March that were usualy not visible due to dry air, that isn't really very interesting to me in Spring. Hope it changes soon, I am getting real fed up of seeing charts like tonights ECM 12z.

Just had 2 surprise gunshot type claps of thunder here, quite loud and short.