Dartmoor_Matt
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Posts posted by Dartmoor_Matt
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Evening Ian,
Yup finally I think we can look forward to some 'spring' like weather, and not before time. The snowdrops haven't flowered up here yet, but I suspect this week will help them out, very late this year.
Can't wait to be able to sit out on the decking, looking over the hills of Dartmoor on a warm evening with friends, BBQ and chilled drinks.
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Mis-judgement or the warming bias that the former chairman wants investigated?
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Regularly gets above 25C here in the summer, last June it was pretty much above 28C for the whole of the last week. Bliss.
Sonnia: you can few the models by clicking on weather at the top of the page and then data centre, you can then pick the various models, which chart you want then which timescale.
As for gales, Spotlight just went for 'a possibility of strong winds' but also snow tonight over the tops of Dartmoor, Exmoor and Bodmin.
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Temp has fallen away to 2.1C here, quite a rapid drop from earlier and feeling sub zero in the wind from the NW.
I think we might get some wet stuff up here later, I shall stick my head out every now and again. Certainly some very dark (could be because it was getting dark) to the north earlier.
Failing that, 25C and sunny would be OK to...
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And our survey says...
Anyway, thats not really climate change related.
I thought the conversation was drifting towards the possibility of one area of the globe experiencing an ice-age (or similar) which other areas see warming. Neither of which is out of the question as far as I know. Especially as this year and last we have seen pretty much cooler temps in the same areas as this year while other areas have warmer temps.
Based on the same 'proxy' data that deniers have been dismissing for an eternity???
But - having said that - the notion does seem quite reasonable???
Tipping points and all that!
Did we have temperature records from 10,000+ years ago?
I'm not going to go and dig out the information, I've read it already, but I'd of thought it was entirely plausible to have one winter with cold temperatures and then a cold summer and hey presto.
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Did it???
Yes, according to new research a few months ago.
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Speaking as a fence sitter from no where land, in the middle of sceptics/pro AGW, I can't see that it would.
Both the LIA and MWP are believed to have been less than global in their impacts, if we can discern an impact in the NH from this prolonged minima, it may be possible to see similarities between now and times past. If we can discern the impacts of both the LIIA and the MWP on a regional level, it may be possible to isolate more firmly the impact CO2 has had upon temperatures in this part of the world. This won't disprove the theory of AGW but it may give a clearer idea of the scale, afterall temperatures have been rising more in the NH than the SH.
When it comes to global temperatures, any cooling in the NH as a result of shifting weather patterns perhaps as a result of a prolonged minima, could well be balanced out by warming in the SH, the net result being a static temperature trend or indeed, still rising - nothing in climate happens very quickly.
I recall seeing something a while ago about the impacts of a prolonged Solar minima being felt first in Northern USA and China, I'll see if I can find it again.
The last ice-age came about in 6 months. Which I find pretty quick. Comparatively.
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So thats two years of lower temps in some areas of the NH and lower hurricane activity...interesting.
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Rain last night, but dry today, mild and overcast though
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The Northern Hemisphere pattern during winter 2009/10, in stark contrast to most recent winters, has seen cold anomalies over Eurasia and warm anomalies in most other regions.
It is also quite possible for a NH to be warmer and be covered in more snow if the areas that are normally marginal for snow cover are in the minority of colder-than-average areas, or if higher temperatures are accompanied by higher precipitation in areas that often see relatively little snow because it's too dry rather than because it's too warm.
No, if we "get used to it", we'll get whatever we put up with. If we don't "get used to it", there's a chance the trend might be halted. I'm afraid I don't see a philosophy of "man was created to serve Capitalism, and AGW is a myth because if it wasn't, it would threaten laissez-faire capitalism" as being a good one for the world to move towards, especially when we have a sustainability problem alongside any AGW.
In the UK, the trend towards higher economic liberty is occurring alongside a trend towards a more authoritarian approach to matters of personal liberty (i.e. '1 or 2 o'clock' instead of '3 o'clock' on the political spectrum). An authoritarian could justify a ban on pretty much anything by using a similar argument, "the UK is moving more authoritarian so get used to it."
So, warm = more snow, why did it rain last night then? I think what we see here is a case of "oh, damn, what are we going to explain this away with"
How many more years of more snow will it take for the stance to change? How many thought last year was a one off?
Oh and just for the record, right wing isn't all down to economics, suprisingly. If you actually read the article is talks about countries generally becoming more right wing, Australia, Germany, USA and the UK all have or are likely to have a right wing party in power, with the socialists barely hanging on in France, Italy and Spain.
Anyway, the article was to do with the AGW debate down under and the opposition parties stance in relation to public opinion. (Amongst other things) Very interesting it was to. I can't find it online, but was in Saturdays paper.
Oh, and the UK while becoming more conservative (with a small 'c') in financial matters is becoming far more liberal (with a small 'l') in social matters.
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Don't all the records come from the same dataset (the 'adjusted' one that is)
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But again, are we seeing a global shift somewhat.
How can the NH be 'notably warmer' and covered in more snow at the same time? So perhaps the notably warmer applies in the SH, while areas of the NH start to cool due to other forces. (Gulf Stream etc.)
All this right wing crap is starting to wear a little thin.
The whole world is moving more right wing, so get used to it. (See report in Saturday Times)
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More questions being raised:
The United Nations climate panel faces a new challenge with scientists casting doubt on its claim that global temperatures are rising inexorably because of human pollution.In its last assessment the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the evidence that the world was warming was “unequivocal”.
It warned that greenhouse gases had already heated the world by 0.7C and that there could be 5C-6C more warming by 2100, with devastating impacts on humanity and wildlife. However, new research, including work by British scientists, is casting doubt on such claims. Some even suggest the world may not be warming much at all.
Sunday Times - Environment Feb 14th
The UN body that advises world leaders on climate change must investigate an apparent bias in its report that resulted in several exaggerations of the impact of global warming, according to its former chairman.In an interview with The Times Robert Watson said that all the errors exposed so far in the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) resulted in overstatements of the severity of the problem.
Professor Watson, currently chief scientific adviser to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said that if the errors had just been innocent mistakes, as has been claimed by the current chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, some would probably have understated the impact of climate change.
The Times - Environment Feb 15th
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Evening,
Seemed to be snow all the way down and even out to sea on the graphics, but then was showing 8c for Plymouth.
So I guess that means it could go either way
Best not be rain, because that would suck.
As for the MO thread... I am of the opinion people in there know only how to look at a chart, rather than the ability to 'forecast' as the moods change with every run.
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I agree with you there! Brilliant day!
I went to uni there so still follow them when needed... mostly when playing Scumhampton
On a weather note, BBC forecast just showed snow for the north of our area on Monday and almost everywhere in our area for Tuesday...
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It has been a pretty cold week, I think my max up here all week was about 2.3C, today hasn't been above freezing.
You couldn't make up mild air coming from the north of all places.
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On the plus side, Pompey whipped S'oton, so not a bad day all round
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I think some perspective is needed by some quarters here.
This thread is the General Climate Change Discussion not a thread where you need a PhD in some relevant subject.
As such I think a discussion on a climate shift the other way for some regions of the world is perfectly apt, even if the AGWers don't like to hear it.
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Surely far healthier to have a bowl of mussels, with a glass of chilled wine and someone lovely to share with...
I suppose the 12z is out now.... (yes, to make it on topic)
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I know it is wrong to have favourites but I think you are my fave poster. You talk about summer, heat and cider, and these are a few of my favourite things!
I just opened the fridge to get the milk out and the wine yelled my name. Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!
Ahhh, I am derailing this thread yet again. Ooops! I had better go and do something useful.
I think your milk might be off if its making you hear the wine calling your name....
Don't get me wrong, I love the cold but this winter has just been a little OTT for our little country. But I guess it beats wet weather any time of the year.
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Cheers Steve.
I have the hugest grin on my face and it just won't budge, been like it since 6.15am. I think my kids were quite scared this morning.
Matt, it is officially the weekend. I have just decreed it, so it must be... lol
Suits me. Cider?
I attempted to go and sit in the sun earier, but forgot it was stil Feb and therefore rather chilly. Still, only a month or so and it could be up to 20C .... oh please!
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It won't snow.
(Does reverse pyschology work with the weather?)
It's officially the weekend now! (well, its not, but can be!)
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Yes and Yes.
Here's 3 pics (from GFS due to ease of getting).
The very large area of 850's at around 0 to -2 between Scotland and Iceland can be seen in 1
2 shows how this gets squeezed and 850's start to drop.
Picture 3 shows that by the time it gets to us, none of the really mild 0 to -2 850's are left and your generally looking at a warm sector of -2 to -4.
This quickly(relatively) goes over us.
Essentially once the warm sector looses it's temperature differential with the cold sector coming down behind, LP development stops and it starts to decay.
The reason why this is so difficult to forecast is that how quickly this occurs(as this effects the depth of the LP and so it's steering ability).
Also how much and how mild the air will be to start with and how cold the air is on the cold front.
Thanks for that!
Fingers crossed then :unsure:
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So, SSS, as you know the answer what do you intend to do about it?
South West England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Aha! I know, but surely there will be one warm evening this spring/summer?