SLEETY

snow showers in the East?Thats some big upgrade from METO.What models are the meto using to see this big change.Must be longer range, model they use,so soon their should be some cold fl looking runs run from gfs ecm?maybe the gfs parallel has been on the money again lol,it’s been showing easterly consistently in fl recently

But you just said no resolution can make a forecast at 15 d range then you said no gfs member gets in deep cold . See the problem with what you said

the met lag behind sometimes in their extended forecasts,seen it a few times before.Keep the faith

gfs parallel leading the way again.Another run showing an Easterly again. Bitter cold over siberia moving westwards,need to see this consistency continue.Would expect a change from meto extended if this continues White christmas anyone?

Well I will be 100 years old in 2070 so looking forward to the extra warmth in the summer then.

yes nearly there at 252 hours let’s hope it’s a new trend it’s found Easterly incoming!! We are on the train again

gfs has the right idea,trying to get the high to retrogress towards greenland .Could be a belter fl coming up

hardly any severe cold weather happens in DEC ,bar the odd occasion,so don’t worry..I just hope the atmospheric pattern is favourable as we head into Jan for a change.Lets hope the long range models pick upon something over the next few weeks.

meto long range forecasting isn’t certain like any other long range forecast.Amazing how so many people take their long range forecasts as a given,when they get it wrong more than they get it correct.It changes all the time too,so good luck if you believe it word for word.

above average temp, is a given now that we have the atlantic piling through soon. 6.2 c 98.4mm

As if by magic the HLB which has been prevalent since SSW in late Feb has been replaced by low pressure to the North and high pressure to the South as we enter the winter months of D J F yet again.Seems to happen every winter.Back to chasing teases in fl on gfs again.06 on gfs a good example.Something definitely changed in U.K. climate although it’s always been pretty rubbish for cold or snow away from the Highlands

As i said last winter we can get northern blocking a plenty but never in the depth of winter!, Is this happening again?

How accurate is anything at that range.If the meto are correct then thats one month of winter gone.Hope this isn’t another winter of chasing rainbows again.Its not like we ever get a cold january anymore,i Look at the C.E.T since 87.

has the cfs ever been correct at that time scale.Please just this once. Meto still insisting cold blocked weather will return IF the Atlantic breaks out. Maybe the models are STILL too progressive ,it’s still not in the reliable time frame this low pressure system.

Can see why the METO were talking about huge uncertainty for next week yesterday now,nothing is given when models struggle so much in these situations.

Yeah massive disappointment this morning.I guess i was too confident that the blocking would put up a better fight yesterday.Amazing how one low pressure system can blast it away so fast. Could be grim for weeks now if your looking for cold weather to return.Ive seen it countless times before when Zonal takes control in the winter months,it can last for weeks and weeks and almost the entire winter can be over when it relaxes its grip. But METO not changed their outlook,so maybe their hope yet!

not even in the reliable time frame yet people insisting atlantic winning through,and METO talking about huge uncertainty next week ,and what happens when the atlantic air hit the cold air?

well it’s not clear actually unless you ignore all the forecasts from the meto etc,

so clear to some posters on here that atlantic wins through,but huge uncertainty from the MET regarding next week and wether mild or cold wins out.Hmm who to believe !

yep snow lying on the ground on the way home on the a23/a27 outside brighton earlier.Even though Met said no snow falling or settling this week at lower levels..FAIL

once mobility sets in it can last for weeks.But it hasn’t yet and models probably been way too progressive in wanting to bring back Atlantic driven weather as they always are Much colder runs are on their way later today i would think and this week once they work out how the atmosphere is behaving.

gfs the best of the lot now on the semi reliable,ukmo poor performance it it has the pattern correct,after before looking like a northerly was coming. Who actually knows,more runs needed!

back to what we saw for most of the Autumn?Eurotrash High again

Very much milder weather returning,according to the latter stages of ECM.Big difference from 12 hours ago.Nice to see consistency from the model then!

just when you think everything is sorted regarding cold,ECM decided to throw out a shocker.I give up with this model watching sometimes!