SNOWPLOUGH

Fair enough, I wont get worried about that until the other models move towards this and the met office back down though. Also if the operational is possibly modelling the low pressure over scandi and its postion wrong, causing energy to head towards us across the atlantic, what hope do the ensembles have? Anyway I expect good runs later today with a better low positioning over scandi/europe... Dan

They look good to me, Hardly warm anyway. They stay very close to 0c til the end of the run, I know its for de bilt but that is not the temp profile for there if we were to have a roaring atlantic come through. Trend still there in my opinion. Dan

Looks like exactly the same green line op run as on the 12z with different ensembles around it. Dan

Would love to see some pics of this freezing rain? Or the snow? 9.0c here in Dublin. Dan

The OP run is not an outlier at all? But there are still plenty of other options in those ensembles. If I remember correctly, The models go all over the place before a pattern change? Especially if its towards one that has northern blocking, the models just do not forecast well beyond +96hrs in such situations. While I was slightly disapointed to see this evenings charts I know that even if we are about to see a repeat of 1947 then the models are still going to chop and change at this range. I think its important to remember that. In my opinion, I think we will see a number of moderate warmings in the stratosphere, eventually blowing the PV into little pieces, BUT I am pretty certain it will take time and it will be a slow process, I do believe it will happen intime for us to get some decent cold weather but the question is when? In 10 days? Unlikely I think, in the next 20 days is alot more probable. But really with the way the models are at the moment I wouldnt rule out the posibility of a ninja easterly, ie showing up at +168hrs and actually happening come t+0z. The one last thing I will say is that the models are FULL of potential, one only has to look at the charts for the 2 weeks before the epic cold spell of 1947- There was very little hint in the charts about what was about to happen. Who Knows maybe the rest of the winter will be a zonal train, or maybe it will be a repeat of 47' . OR more likely it will be like neither. Dan

FI is definitley +96 hrs at the moment, I stiill cant believe how much cold weather the models are projecting when you take the teleconnections into consideration. Dan

I think anywhere in the North/North-west of the country above 200m, could have a covering of snow by monday, but I dont think anything widespread is on the cards, just wherever the showers hit. Later in the week certainly looks very interesting! Shocked to see that update from met eireann so early! Dan

GFS and ECM 00Z are as you were, cool zonality for the +348/+240 hrs. Not much change here, just checked all of the teleconnections and the outlook is bleak for cold and snow. Are we really going to have to wait til late December/early January for a pattern change? Dan

This autumn is also very like 1946, yes I can cherry pick too. I agree the models arent looking great for colder weather but some perspective is needed here, its the 20th of November! Which of our famously cold winters started on the 20th of November? Or even within the first 3 weeks of December? None of them. I fully expect a very cold winter but I dont expect it to start until this time next month, maybe even later. The models do not show anything notable in the next few weeks and all of the teleconnections are against us so it makes sense that we have a dull outlook. BUT teleconnections do change, the stratosphere will warm eventually (hopefully before the end of winter) or other factors will become favourable. So please enough of this writing off the whole of december based on our current position and the current outlook. It WILL change. Dan

Is the stratoshere not warming very slightly at the 30hpa level? (Still just below average though) http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html Dan

Magnitude 7.4 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 2011 June 24 03:09:39 UTC My link Dan

Hey, Not looking good so far, different depths been reported though so I think we will have to wait for some confirmation. Hopefully there isn't much damage caused by this, its the last thing the people of Japan need now! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif Dan

6.7 Magnitude earthquake of the coast of Honoshu, Japan. Depth 12.4 Miles Hope there isn't a tsunami!! Dan

Thanks for that Chiono, I understand that now. hopefully we see a warming occur in a favourable location to destroy the PV so. Dan

Ok, thanks anyway. EDIT : would a warning at say Oslo have similar effects to one over the pole? SP

Thanks for the update Mark, can you give me a link to the website for the forecasted warming charts? Thanks. Dan

Average day today, got an Airfrost here last night, min was -1.0C. Baltinglass, Ireland recorded a minimum of -5.4C ! SP

Managed to record three months here without it hitting 10c, but just about! 11th of December 09 til the 11th of March 10... I am living in hope that the last few winters are the start of a trend rather than a rare clash of weather events. SP

Il go for 13.7c please, some chilly nights balanced out by some warm days... SP

Just missed it! 15.7C please! <_< SP

2.3C please. Dan

Does anyone know when was the last time there was a calender month with an average temp of -0.3C ? Maybe mr.data would know ? Dan

what times the ECM 00z out? Have a nice covering of frozen powder snow here in Dublin, about 2" inches or 5CM!!!!! Temp -1.0C . Happy new year everyone!!! Dan

Don't worry fear sneachta, the snow is coming to Dublin thursday onwards and it's just going to get colder and colder over the country, after tommorrow. Last feb dublin got a good bit of snow, 6 inches in some parts.This time round we are in a much better position because current model output shows no end in sight for cold, with numerous chances of snowfall along the east coast over the next week or so. I reckon the eastern half of the country will have come to a stand-still by Monday evening. I really think this is the big one and a long one. Have you seen the forcasts by met eireann on RTÉ recently??? They have said we are about to see record breaking cold, chances of major snowfall events and this will be the coldest it's been in years!!! They are usually very conservative and cautious about what they say!!!!! Dan

Where in Dublin city centre are you? Dan