benb
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Posts posted by benb
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8 minutes ago, andymusic said:
nope i'm not - we are on the money for a biblical event in Wales - just wish all knew about it to stay safe
7 minutes ago, bradythemole said:Metoffice text also very good for Thursday. “Prolonged snowfall with significant accumulation”
3 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:Well I will be gladly covered in egg in particular over my big ugly mug ,as Andy’s 3 piece blizzard looks the form horse ?.
Not exactly 3 full days ,but this I do think could be the big one and we are now within 40hours or so if it starting so any downgrade shifts will become dramatically less and less from this point - and there is always the possibility this could still upgrade !!!
Red warning tomorrow lunchtime ?
I'm normally cautious about these things, but it's such an unusually cold set-up I guess if it's going to happen it has to be now.
Seems to have upgraded last couple of runs, too. But, as usual, half a degree could make all the difference between white-out and wash-out!
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Got to say: IF 12z GFS verifies, could be nearly 24hrs of snow fall in SW Wales Thurs/Fri... Don't think I've ever seen a forecast like it in my memory.
This could, could be the big one.
I was worried about the higher 850s moving in with the low, but the models don't seem to see this as an issue for snowfall in this set-up.
If anyone can tell me not to get excited and why, please do so!!
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Thursday into Friday looks perhaps most interesting for heavy snow, especially for those of us in the SW.
Just getting a bit worried that there seems to be a lot of very warm air progged to be dragged in by that developing low that could scupper things in Pembs/Carms:
Am I right to be worried?
(For some reason, link goes to 360hrs-odd! Key period 84/90hrs).
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Covering of snow in Tenby this morning (which is something like a one in 6 or 7 year event, I'd estimate) and a couple of proper snow showers this morning that were a joy to be out in (pretty hairy driving The Ridgeway early on; more like a bob-sled track in places).
Preselis looked like they had a good covering too.
Beats the rain anyway!!
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Heavy settling snow in Tenby just cleared through! Awesome and a bit more upwind, too!
Pembrokeshire Dangler (a variety of) in full effect!!
Been a great day of weather in S.Pembs, all told: we've had it all!!
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2 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:
Ha! This I have to see...
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Not as wild as Monday here (atm), but still some pretty strong gusts coming through. A not unusual autumn/winter gale.
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9 hours ago, Jen Beachcomber said:
Hello All I hope everyone survived Ophelia ok and now it seems we are in for another bashing this weekend!!!!
I did go down to Freshwater West beach on Monday afternoon.
I picked the least treeless route I could and drove down to the beach from the top Castlemartin side. I had a que of 4 cars following me!!! and when I got to the beach there were Campervans in the main carpark!!!
I parked on the hill next to a bit of a dune and could still feel the car shaking.
I went prepared as I read that the windchill from the winds would be in single digits. I wore my full winter beachcombing gear, insulated waterproof trousers and waterproof jacket. I already have a waterproof camera and took the monopod to help me hold the camera steady and also an old tea towel to keep the lens clean.
AWESOME is the only way to describe it. At 2:30pm (2hrs before high tide) the waves were just about reaching the back of the beach. The horizon was just a huge mass of waves and looked so high. I found a dip overlooking the beach (well back from the edge) where I could have some shelter and spent the most exhilarating next couple of hours in awe of mother nature.
I used up 2x 8gb cards and 2 camera batteries videoing and taking pictures. No rain just wind, alternating between glorious sunshine, grey clouds and rainbows.
The wind was gusting I'm guessing at least 70mph at times and my friend who lives a mile up the valley overlooking Freshwest said her anemometer maxed out at 75mph at approx 4:30pm.
I left just about high tide 4:45pm as I could see some ominous black clouds headed our way.
There was no surge as such just immense power pushing the waves in. The splash did just reach the road above the beach and I watched more than one person get wet on the slipway from the carpark down to the beach.
Ive added a few pics (I hope they work) and managed to get a great video of a backwash that moved the whole length of the beach, I'm not sure how to link it though?
Looks awesome! Glad it was worth it!
My feeling, looking back, was that the South Pembs/Carms coastline had a lucky escape with the smallish tide. A bigger tide and there would certainly have been some significant flooding/erosion.
Rinse and repeat on Saturday morning, as you say.
30ft+ swell forecast!
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44ft swell on Bouy 62023. Frightening.
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39ft swell on one of the bouys S of Eire!!
Think that's the biggest I've ever seen it.
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Howling in Tenby now, really picking up in last 20mins...
Sent home from work in Pembroke at 11am, so County Council must be pretty confident about expected impacts.
Swell kicking in now, too. This afternoon's high-tide is going to be spectacular.
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Howling in Tenby now, really picking up in last 20mins...
Sent home from work in Pembroke at 11am, so County Council must be pretty confident about expected impacts.
Swell kicking in now, too. This afternoon's high-tide is going to be spectacular.
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4 minutes ago, knocker said:
Interesting 00 sounding here with massive WAA in the boundary layer (22.8C at 942mb) and medium level instability.
In layman's terms?
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What's the record for warmest October night?
Currently 19c/20c in some areas of country! That's gotta be close, right?
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Moderately windy in S.Pembs this AM. Expecting wind to continue to build throughout day.
Met O has sustained wind at 49-50mph from 2-4pm, gusting 69-72mph, in Tenby.
Be interesting to see how close that is to what actually happens.
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Just now, pip22 said:
Only The Mirror and The Sun barely mentions Ophelia on the front pages for tommorow. The Express is the only one that mentions Ophelia most of front page.
Other papers not one word of Ophelia mentioned.
To be fair, the Express have been predicting weather Armageddon of one sort or another every week for years... they were bound to hit lucky eventually... but by then no one believed them.
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1 minute ago, Andy Pepler said:
has the storm turned west a little ...looking like it on sat 24
Just thinking the centre looked to be heading more N than NE... I think that's what was expected?
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4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
oh #27 NHC says still a hurricane
A hurricane?! Still? Less than 500 miles from my house.
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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Screw it. I'm heading to Manorbier Beach, I don't want to miss this one!
Ha!! Hope you have a good journey...
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I find here-
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Sherkin Island (Southern tip of Eire) is my current favourite...
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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:
Okay so I'm not going down to Freshwest/Wisemans bridge now, I couldn't convince anyone to come with me and I don't fancy a 500 mile round trip on my own. If anyone does manage to get down there, please post some pictures/videos so I can see what I missed out on.
I'll be watching this one from way over here.
Don't blame you: it is a bloody long way... storm after this one lokks like it might have more local interest for you!
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Guess I have my Pembrokeshire tinted specs on!
Far west seems to keep the snow all the way through, whereas there is a break for you guys further east but I'm sure that detail will chop and change over the next 48hrs.