eyeofthestorm

The Gulf Stream hasn't moved south, but it has been greatly weakened over the past several months according to NOAA and US Navy ocean models. http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest Here are two comparisons from August and September last year which show several ocean currents including the Brazil Current, the Caribbean current, the NAD, the Canary current and the Norway current which now either cease to exist or have been greatly weakened http://img201.images...100f024natl.png http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png I by no means believe BP could cause this, people tend to put the blame on somebody because it is convenient. Besides the Loop current is one current which still appears to be working when it is clear the damage appears to be done elsewhere some several thousand miles from the Gulf of Mexico. I am actually quite mystified that nobody is factoring this into their winter forecasts since the gulf stream/NAD is the UK's central heating system. I also believe the SST data from the models is wrong, there is no way they could remain at the norm with this apparent disruption to the ocean circulation, and NASA satellite data confirms this below which is very similar to the Data on Netweather Extra. http://ghrsst.jpl.na...ges/amsre-1.jpg As usual with anything weather related the media and the Met Office wont say anything until the effects are imminently felt. I dont see how people can deny these facts, but it does make things difficult when we have people all over the internet bent on blaming BP for something of this scale which makes no sense whatsoever. http://ukclimateproj.../view/2090/517/

Looks the same to me not much difference from what I can see, unless I am missing something?? Slight improvement over the North coast of scotland at t144hrs but probably just down to surface winds from low pressure

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest Gulf Stream still very weak. Not only that but many other ocean currents have either vanished or are greatly weakened. I am sure there are short term variations in the speed of the stream but surely nothing of this magnitude. http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png Last year We need a new thread on this which focuses on just facts without linking to people like the Earl of Sterling!!

Quite a large cold sst anomaly appearing over the Atlantic right over where the Gulf Stream breaks up, heat is leaving the ocean fast. As for the UK sst, there is conflicting data. For Example Netweather Extra data is showing Skye and Blackpool at between 7.9 and 8.0c, well below normal, but the NOAA model is showing us around normal. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.10.11.2010.gif

http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j270/JohnnyGunn/NOAAAtlCurr20090820.png A reminder of what things look like last year from a post earlier in the thread. There is clearly a massive difference. In comparison to now http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=lv&u=http://www.tvnet.lv/zala_zeme/daba/346044-polu_sinoptiki_biede_eiropu_ar_tukstos_gados_bargako_ziemu&ei=v-2PTIrMFoKUjAePxsidDg&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CCIQ7gEwAg&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.tvnet.lv/zala_zeme/daba/346044-polu_sinoptiki_biede_eiropu_ar_tukstos_gados_bargako_ziemu%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG Looks like this is starting to hit the European Press.

Thanks for the link, bookmarked it. This kind of proves my point though. The ones in yellow are Met Office owned and the ones in red are privately owned by industry. The private data isn't available for free I dont think, but all the above appear to be fed into Netweather Extra which I pay monthly for. The Private data was showing the colder temperatures whilst the Met office owned ones were not. Which kind of leads me to think is the Met Office playing with its data? The only way to settle this is to go swimming in the sea because its all too confusing with different sources showing different data.

Well if it is correct we are in trouble this winter. Probably is wrong and there is some error in the data. But I am surprised no one has fixed it yet.

I know what your saying, but I cant help think though it is indeed correct. There are large parts of the North Atlantic well below normal too as shown by the NOAA satellites, and it is just too much of a coincidence to me that with the gulf stream losing over 90% of its strength. It has shown the same thing for weeks, and by now you would of thought it would of been corrected.

If It was an error it would have been corrected by now. This has been showing for weeks.

I dont know, but that is according to NetWeather Extra. Some of these Buoys are maintained by private industry and I am not going to put the blame on the Met Office for playing with figures. However one can see from the ocean forecast models that the gulf stream has almost vanished in the past 12 months, so maybe this information is been sat upon.

Surely the biggest concern for this and future winters is the gulf stream situation? Here is the latest SST Buoy data from Netweather Extra, as I said on an earlier page it appears some of this data is maintained by private indistry and some by the Met Office. Also NOAA polar orbiting satellites and not the model data confirm the well below average North Atlantic SST. http://marine.rutger...=sst&nothumbs=0 Link to Satellite data. Torquay 10.1°C Bournemouth 10.0°C Newquay 10.1°C Brighton 16.7°C Great Yarmouth 16.4°C Skegness 14.9°C Scarborough 9.2°C St Andrews 9.9°C Skye 9.9°C Blackpool 9.7°C Minehead 9.7°C St Marys 10.1°C Jersey 11.4°C Falmouth 10.3°C http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest latest Gulf Stream data.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest Latest update above. Notice hurricane Igor in the center heading towards the east coast. It is tiny in comparison to the area disrupted both up and downstream.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest Looks like it is weakening further. http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png A reminder of how things looked last year As someone else pointed out, the 200m charts are irrelevant. It is the surface velocitys which carries the warm waters towards the UK. It is not until it heads back down from the arctic regions does it begin to sink Type latest in the box for the current run People who blame BP seem to add the loop current is broken, but if I am reading it right the loop current seems to be functioning fine. It is further up the stream the chaos begins, and of course further down the stream too. It would be good idea to keep a daily eye on the ocean models to see how things play out.

In theory yes, the North Atlantic current is what keeps the UK in a temperate climate and gives us milder winters than most places on out latitude. Currently the Gulf Stream seems to of almost fragmented, and the surface velocity's are well down, even down by the gulf they are well down on what they should be. I am no expert and we will have to see how things play out over the coming months.

Somehow I just cant see how BP fits into all of this. The Internet abuzz with people putting blame on BP. To me it is technically impossible for BP to somehow stop almost the entire gulf stream, and severely disrupting the rest of the currents. I think this needs a separate thread which just focuses on hard data, not some blog which claims it is going to wipe us all out!! Been a fascinating debate tonight anyway.

From Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream "Typically, the Gulf Stream is 100 kilometres (62 mi) wide and 800 metres (2,600 ft) to 1,200 metres (3,900 ft) deep. The current velocity is fastest near the surface, with the maximum speed typically about 2.5 metres per second (5.6 mph).[20] As it travels north, the warm water transported by the Gulf Stream undergoes evaporative cooling. The cooling is wind driven: wind moving over the water cools it and also causes evaporation, leaving a saltier brine. In this process, the water increases in salinity and density, and decreases in temperature. Once sea ice forms, salts are left out of the ice, a process known as brine exclusion.[21] These two processes produce water that is denser and colder (or, more precisely, water that is still liquid at a lower temperature). In the North Atlantic Ocean, the water becomes so dense that it begins to sink down through less salty and less dense water. (The convective action is not unlike that of a lava lamp.) This downdraft of heavy, cold and dense water becomes a part of the North Atlantic Deep Water, a southgoing stream.[22] Very little seaweed lies within the current, although seaweed lies in clusters to its east"

Unless I am reading it wrong the link below seems to establish the North Atlantic current has indeed stopped. There is virtually nothing impacting the UK and Norway. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-0-large-rundate=latest Now compare this to august 20th last year and you will see the huge contrast. http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j270/JohnnyGunn/NOAAAtlCurr20090820.png Found this via solarcycle24 Adding to that, the SST temperatures I posted yesterday from NetWeather extra after doing some searching on the net, some are I think maintained by private industry and some by the met office. Now either the Private sector has it wrong, Or the Met Office is manipulating data... Surely Not!!! :lol: Is this down to the BP Oil spill? Probably not, the Gulf Stream has been weakening for years, and now appears to of taken a major step further

From NetWeather Extra. Torquay 10.5°C Bournemouth 10.5°C Newquay 10.2°C Brighton 16.9°C Great Yarmouth 17.2°C Skegness 15.7°C Scarborough 8.8°C St Andrews 9.8°C Skye 10.3°C Blackpool 9.6°C Minehead 10.2°C St Marys 10.1°C Jersey 11.3°C Falmouth 10.4°C Most Places Well Below Normal.

Has anyone noticed the cold SST around much of the UK? Many places in single figures according to Netweather extra. According to the actual observed temperatures as opposed to the model projections they are some 7c lower than the model is predicting. Anyone seeing the same thing?

GFS 18z is disastrous and a huge mess with milder air making it right across the country by t144, leaving us with SW winds by t180. UKMO and ECM however look much better for prolonging the cold.

Much better UKMO; keeps the cold over the UK for longer. Heights rising over Northern Scandinavia with Lows remaining further south and the milder air further east. A Good UKMO. :lol: http://www.wetterzen...n/fsukmeur.html

Brilliant 18z for the longer term so far, heights beginning to rise over scandi by t144 possibly allowing an easterly re-load after the Northerly. Couldn't ask for more. :lol:

ECM 120hrs

Could do with some more snow here in Hexham was very disappointed on Monday night, the snow was a wintry mix initially before turning to rain. Hardly anything left here just a few cm and nothing in the town :wub: BBC mentioned some persistent snow showers over Northumberland Tomorrow. But Sunday probably my best hope for seeing anymore snow :lol: Lets hope the full effects of the Stratospheric Warming are felt soon, some incredible potential in FI on the ECM 12z tonight