[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Looking promising tonight for a few snow showers on the North York moors ( and Wolds perhaps )

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Think it would be marg….inal  

quite a spread in the ensembles

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

i wonder if there will be a slight dusting on the Moors tomorrow morning in the usual spot just north of Fylingdales ?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

30 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

No chance of that happening today

big upgrade on the UKMO long range forecast 28th Nov to 7th Dec just published a few mins ago 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z @ 144

ECM 12z @ 144

UKMO 12z @ 144

Overall today i think the chances for a pure "clean" Northerly have diminished slightly but the opportunity for further amplification later and a more prolonged cold snap have increased , Yes ECM has moved towards to GFS a bit. The UKMO is ironically the poorer of the 3 and may give us just a glancing blow of cold for the North and East. 

Can the really cold air with -5 to -8 uppers get South early enough on 24th -25th Nov that is the question ?

A good day of model watching overall for coldies and a much better position than we were in just 1 week ago.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 06z short ensembles.

 

That's a very good mean from 24th onwards.

It may well be that the Northerly doesn't develop this quickly or is more short lived ( eg the UKMO 0z solution ) but it seems likely that we will see at least a 48-72 hour cold spell for most of the UK in the last week on November. 

I would be surprised if it doesn't topple or get shunted East fairly quickly in the end , but a very good start to the "season" with Northern Europe getting very cold early  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 18z @ 144hrs

It doesn't really matter what comes next on the pub run, This is a cracking evolution for cold lovers at day 6.

ECM 0z and UKMO 0z will be fun to watch ( might even stay up ! )

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

UKMO 12z 850's at 168 hrs

Whilst be have the most recent UKMO output showing these uppers at 168hrs i think we still have a decent cold chase ahead over the next few days

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

ECM 12z ensembles  850's

 

The Mean is poor but worth noting perhaps that the Op is at the very top of the ensembles from 24th to 26th.  There are a good few members in the -5 range during that period in question 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

'

MOGREPS 12z

just for balance

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z ensembles

 

An outstanding Op for late Nov and not a bad mean ....... unless the early evolution is wrong ( in which case it is worthless ) 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z jet stream 25th Nov

As we head towards Winter , one feature that keeps cropping up over recent days in the model output is the favorable angle of the jet.

We may indeed get lucky at some point in the next few weeks and be pleasantly surprised with a 48-72 hour Northerly or Northwesterly that delivers for Northern hills ( Scotland ,North York moors  Peaks etc and maybe higher ground in the Midlands or even the South )

Better than a raging Atlantic anyway !

i wouldn't write of 24/ 25/ 26 Nov for a cold snap in the NE of the UK just yet either

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z ensembles

 

Well lets hope that the GFS 12z Op is on to something.  We could all do with a few days of a relatively blocked Atlantic . I'd take a 48 hour Northerly or Northwesterly to be honest.  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFZ 12z 850's for Mon 27th Nov

Given where we were only a few days ago ( and with the seemingly endless dismal UKMO forecasts of wind and rain ) ......this is a very welcome development from the GFS.

Cold and frosty and maybe some snow for Northern Hills i would expect. Awaiting the ECM12z with interest,

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

ECM 12z ensemble mean

Not much to be gleaned from the ensemble mean at the moment but one to watch over coming days. Op a bit on its own at the end 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

ECM 12z at day 10

Wow ...... liking this a lot

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z @ 228hrs

 

ECM 0z @ 240hrs

The GFS 12z @ 228 hrs has moved the high pressure towards the position of the ECM 0z @ 240hrs.  Previously the center of the high was over Ireland / Cornwall.  Will be very interesting to see the ECM 12z chart at 216 shortly.  Not far from being an interesting set up for cold lovers 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 0z @ 240hrs

ECM 0Z @ 240hrs

I wonder which model ( GFS or ECM ) will have have the position of the high more correctly orientated as we count down the next few runs.

Didn't see much suggestion of this from the medium term MetO update 2 days ago. But this looks much more interesting for cold lovers !  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

GFS 12z for Nov 17th

 

850's

Some emergence of high pressure over Scandinavia trying to hold back the Atlantic onslaught , but it doesn't last long. Some cold air not far away to our East though which is good to see    

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

t300 GFS0z

After these storms have passed i wouldn't be surprised to see a few colder shots from the North ( or even the North East ) as we approach mid month. Some evidence of potential blocking from both GFS and ECM today

[First Ground and Air Frost Watch - Season 2023-24]

-0.5°C here in East Yorkshire at 0500 hrs and an air frost. I suspect some of the good frost hollows up on the Wolds ( eg Thixendale have a good icy covering this morning ) 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

I'm up in the North of Scotland for a long weekend.

Could get interesting on the hills.

high res WRF NMM 12z

 

ARPEGE 12z

regards JS

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

-3°C and lovely this morning 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

 

Up at Givendale this morning

magical up there

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Rain turned to snow here about 2 hours ago so we have a covering now and stuck in a streamer from the North East