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Posts posted by Jeremy Shockey
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GFS 12z tableaux 850's
Crazy amount of scatter after the 20th Dec. Anything can happen ( including some very cold options indeed )
Just need that high to be a few hundred miles North West and the -8 isotherm could be upon us for Christmas !
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ECM 0z ensembles
to keep "the dream" alive i'm sticking with the ECM 0z Op as my line of hope.
Looking forward to the ECM 12z to see where it puts the high pressure at 216-240 hours
Plenty of opportunity for a cold crisp Christmas week still IMO
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ECM 12z day 10
The high may be heading in the right direction at least ......something to keep an eye on perhaps
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sleeting near Huggate when i passed earlier this afternoon
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25 minutes ago, Sunny_AS said:
Any thoughts on the band heading towards us tonight?
snow to sleet to rain event i would have thought sadly ......it will be 4 or 5 C by tomorrow morning with the -8 isotherm well and truly departed.
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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:
Fabulous photo, thanks for sharing
Thank you John
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1 minute ago, Wold Topper said:
Nice snow 'person'
thanks WT , my daughter just named her Noella !
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and it is coming down even thicker now .........showers seem to have developed a more NNE angle of attack coming off the North sea
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Maybe a bit of Wintry fun for parts of North and East Yorkshire tomorrow night ?
North York Moors and Wolds perhaps !
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Settling nicely now ……. Heavy showers ( and this will freeze later and not thaw quickly tomorrow I reckon )
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wet snow coming down now ....settling on cars
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Sleet again near Fridaythorpe now and the temp has fallen to 2.5°C ……. Would expect snow on the top of the Wolds later this evening
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sleeting here now on the Wolds at Cot Nab on the A166 ( top of Garrowby Hill )
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ARPEGE 12z
Interesting for our region on Fri night perhaps !!!
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ARPEGE 12z for Fri night
Potentially very Wintry for Northern England on Fri night according to ARPEGE 12 z
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GEFS 12z 850s Tableaux
Quite a serious upgrade for the period Nov 25th - Nov 29th
Very Wintry for some !
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ECM 12z 850s for Thur night
ARPEGE 12z precipitation.
Some Wintry fun for Northern hills on Thur night most likely
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GFS 12z 850's tableaux
Time to get the logs in . We might not get lots of snow but the temperature difference will be stark.
Plenty of fun for high ground in the North too !
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ECM 0z ensemble mean ( 850's )
Not a bad ECM 0z mean ( even if the graph needs to be extended at the bottom to show the -6 isotherm ).
Looking forward to what happens after 25th Nov that's for sure
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFZ 12z in deep Jos Verstappen land !
Obviously this is unlikely to happen but it will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles. ( and i know its not F1 )