[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

missed all the showers so far since 1 am .......... come on !!!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

a few heavy graupel showers here .........not melting at all , so we have a fine dusting.

( temp 1 C , dewpoint of -3 C )

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

7 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Was going to go sleep then this is exciting me now! 

yes Craigers ....still moving North ....and widening nicely

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

These wont show till 12am and deliver between 1am and 2am mate.

Conditions arent right for enhanced shower activity yet height are too high.

Theres a small cap on the atmosohere hence the rash of shallow light showers.

850s are allowing convection to start but the heights arent allowing for big towers just yet all due to change after midnight and get better as we go through monday

v good explanation Scott , thanks

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

GFS 12z @ t 216

There is only one word for this .... BRUTAL

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

i'll be up all night long watching both the Superbowl tonight and the lamp post in equal measure.

Hoping for a snowfest and a pointsfest at the same time.

a good night for no sleep i reckon.

 

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

mostly light graupel here too ......but beginning to settle

still 1.4 C ( with a dew point of -2 c ) so we should be fine when the beefy showers arrive

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Very light snow here in Newbald , East Yorkshire . Some more hefty showers approaching 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

back to sleet when we lost the intensity but very nice while it happened .........and that was just the hors d'oeuvres

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Many thanks Craigers .........E Yorks deserves it 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

heavy snow here ..........settling already after 5 mins

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1.2 c now and heavy sleet ( temp down nearly 2 c in 30 mins )

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

34 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Beeb forecast looks kak. All the concentration for the far SE. The graphics are dreadful it showed nothing till Monday which is totally against most other output. 

dont worry ....it might be a slow start for East Yorkshire with limited precipitation about on Sun. However with the -8 to -12 isotherm over us for 6 days we will get snow .....yes even for Hull and Beverley , Driff  etc !

im just going to relax and enjoy the ride ( will not even watch the radar which can spoil it ....so it will be like the old days ! ) 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

GEFS 6z ensembles

Looking very cold until 11th at least.

I would not look much beyond that date at the moment to be honest

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

17 minutes ago, Aiden2020 said:

This is a very exciting time it’s getting very hard for me to not tell everybody

i told my black Labrador .......is that ok ?

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Slight covering in Newbald , East Yorkshire , more up top on Arras Hill. ( sleet and wet snow mix since 5 a.m. ) 

roll on the weekend ( hopefully ) 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Tue morning snow for Yorkshire on WRF 6z

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

incredible ensemble mean on the GFS 12 z 

lots of opportunity for coldies after 5th Feb ( and before then too in the next 4 days )

any mild blip lasts about only 3 days

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

At least I managed a bit of skating on frozen fields on Monday early morning !

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

roll on Feb 6/7 and the possibility of something very cold from the NE or E  ( that is just about the only scenario that will deliver for Hull and Beverley nowadays )

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

GFS 12 z OP at 240 hours

Yorkshire would be bloody cold on 5th Feb if GFS 12 z Op is correct  !

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

GFS 12 z Op for 6th Feb

Outrageous FI from the GFS 12z Op with the -12 isotherm over the SE .....well it could happen i suppose !

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 hour ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

looking like yet another snowless january in east yorkshire.

Wolds to the west of East Yorks up towards Garrowby Hill have done ok Mike ..... but i agree lousy for Beverly , Hull , Driff and lowland areas.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

ECM 0z Ensemble mean

 

Both sets of ensembles from ECM 0z and GFS 0z suggest a colder evolution as we start Feb ( after a 4 / 5 days milder period )

This ties in rather well with what the Met O are saying in the longer term outlook. Northerly winds perhaps into Feb ? or even a Scandi High perhaps ?

.....and in the very short term ( and not to be forgotten ) snow opportunities Fri to Tue for many too.

GFS 0z ensembles ( below )

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

10 degree fall in temp last night in 100 mins ...... nice