[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

GFS 12z for 23rd Nov

Well i hope this comes off to get us all in an early festive mood ( but i wouldn't get too excited yet )

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

 

Trending Colder by the looks of things after 18th Nov with an early Northerly blast

GFS 12z ensembles

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

GFS 6z for 19th Nov

This would wake a few of us up i think !

[First Ground and Air Frost Watch Season 2021-22]

got down to 0 at Thixendale just before midnight ......but by 7 a.m the cloud had moved in from the west and it was back up to 5 C. 

i'm still counting this as the first frost for the Yorkshire Wolds of the Autumn 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

very heavy rain and sqaull here right now ........stair-rods and gusts of 25 mph ish ........lovely

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Looking very promising. Decent mean for the end of June / start of July 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Got to be very happy with the. ECM 0Z mean going forward. We deserve this after that grotty May. Nothing but warm air building.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Not very inspiring for May and largely unsettled. However we have seen the back of that bitter Arctic air and it will not be cold at least ...i

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Things moving in the right direction perhaps as we head towards the second week of May ( if you want to see the back of this cold air that is !)

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Not liking the trend here much .........go away Winter ,,,it is nearly May !!

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

Op pretty much out on its own. Lets hope it is wrong. ( i dont care for cold at the end of April )

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

ECM 0z ensemble mean

A bit more encouraging from the ECM 0z this morning if you are looking for a "warm up"  later next week.

Lets hope that the Op is onto something. 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Pretty brutal April 5th till 10th that's for sure.

[Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.]

Go away Winter ...... I really don’t care for snow in April ( and I’m a huge snow lover ) 
I was just getting used to 20 °C and tennis !!!

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

ECM 0z for 5th March

Day 10 Op on the ECM 0z catches the eye a bit but is out on its own within the ensembles.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Jetstream for March 4th on GFS 12z

wow ....can you imagine if the jet actually did this in a couple of weeks time !

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

GFS 12z @ 336hrs

It would only need that high to form 100 miles further West and we would be in the game for a potent Northerly to start March. 

Plenty of cold air still in the vicinity of the British Isles on March 3rd

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

ECM 12 z ensembles

One to watch perhaps .......trending down towards the end of the month !

( a dry cool start to March quite possible with frosts returning )

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

GFS 6z for first day of Spring !!!

Cant rule out a cold start to March ! ....one to keep an eye on

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

GFS 12z for 27th Feb

High pressure maybe building in at the end of the month.  Perhaps something dry , cool or cold for early March with frosts returning . Until then ....enjoy the mild spell over the next 10 days or so !

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Had to get the old ice skates out of the loft yesterday morning with thick ice on the pond in Newbald. 

[Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.]

9/10 for East Yorkshire  (  with hardly any elevation )

Heavy snow for 3 days and drifting ( we hit the streamers )

7 days of temperatures barely above freezing ( including 3 ice days )

A low of -12 C for my location.

Even better on the Wolds where roads are still in the process of being unblocked.

Lots of people sledging and even skiing and ice skating  

Much better than 2017 and up there with 2010 to be honest for this location.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Done very well over the last 36 hours in Newbald .......about 4 to 5 inches ( and more like 8 up the hill ) . We got really lucky last night with some direct hits from some mega showers. At last lowland East Yorkshire has got some decent snow out of this. ( about bloody time too !) 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

at last a proper shower in Newbald .......20 mins from Hull ......all white now

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

a mere dusting of graupel so far ............ive been up all night watching the Superbowl and the patchy snow performance has been as disappointing as the Kansas City Chiefs so far !