Jeremy Shockey
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Posts posted by Jeremy Shockey
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23 minutes ago, jon snow said:
Just looking through the GEFS 12z there seems to be a window of opportunity for wintery weather between early / mid Jan?!….what can I say, worth keeping an eye ? on?!
you are right Frosty.
Plenty of opportunity for amplification around 8th -10th Jan.
High pressure likely to build W of the UK ( maybe even a Greenland high of sorts )
Lots of cold air to our East ( unlike many previous Decembers )
Decent background signals and a weak / split PV
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Northerly or North Easterly in early Jan to be honest
regards JS
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Drove back home across the North York Moors this morning ……. Icy
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GFS 06z precipitation
A few lucky ones in the North East of the UK will get a Christmas Day Wintry surprise on the Northern flank i would reckon. ( altitude will help of course )
The cold air digging down just a fraction further South on this 06z run
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Chances for something white on Christmas Day ( mostly on high ground for Yorkshire )
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GFS 0z ensembles for Newcastle and Aberdeen
Somewhere ....in the North East of the country there is likely to be a white Christmas .......sadly not for the South though.
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2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Insanity, looks like 60 hours is FI..
agreed 100% .....60 hours away from now is 6 a.m on Christmas Day morning ......and we cannot call that yet at all !
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it really is remarkable to say it but FI might even be t60 right now ........we are riding on the blade of a knife
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GFS 12 z ensemble mean 850s
Incredible change in the GFS Ensembles from this morning. This would suggest the further North and East you are the better chance for snow on 25th / 26th ......but anything can change until then ( and probably will )
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GFS 06z for Christmas Day .....higher ground in Yorkshire anyone ?
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Just now, Tink said:
Moaning in the mod thread…No surely not!!!!!
Sweet Jesus it’s worse than a playground.
Yes it would be nice to have a white Christmas but at the end of the day it’s just the weather…
Merry Christmas everyone
well said Tink and Happy Christmas to all ..........Yorkshire is in a good place for this cold spell i reckon
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UKV 850's for Yorkshire on Christmas Day ...... ( rain to snow perhaps for some ? )
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UKMO 12z 850 s for Boxong Day
Unfortunately the UKMO 12z is a bit of a downgrade from the 0z in terms of uppers ( especially for the South ) .
However we are still on a knife edge and nothing is remotely decided with regards to the actual boundary of cold air and warm air yet.
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WRF NMM 0z for Christmas Day evening
WRF NMM 0z for early Boxing Day
Some of the more high res models ( eg NMM are now coming into range for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Worth keeping an eye on over coming days as the cold air heads South and the rain turns to snow at boundary x
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GEM 12z 850's
Some very decent uppers in place as early as 8pm on Christmas Day on the GEM 12z too ( encouraging )
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850's on UKMO 12z @ t144 ...are excellent
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UKMO 12z for 25th Dec
One smaller low trying to slide under the block ....... this is exactly what we were hoping for @ t120
The whole thing remains on a knife edge !
Exciting times indeed
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UKMO 12z @ t144 850's
Hi Guys , the exact boundary between the very cold air to the North East and the much warmer air to the SW is still very much up for grabs . This is only 19th Dec after all.
Nobody yet knows whereabouts the rain will turn to snow on the Northern edge ( and it will ! ) It could be the M4 , the Scottish Border or even the English Channel still.
A 300 mile shift either way is still quite likely. We have seen this many times before.
Look at the wording of the MetO 6-30 day outlook today.
Plenty of hope for tomorrow. Enjoy your evening.
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UKMO 12z 168 hrs chart for Boxing Day is still very good indeed ( as was the 144 chart for Christmas Day)
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UKMO 0z for Christmas Day
i've just read about 11 pages of this great discussion. Knife Edge stuff no doubt.....and too early to call. However the chart i keep coming back to is this one for Christmas Day from UKMO. i would bite your hand off for that chart at t144 any year in the past 10 years on 19th Dec. Regards JS
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ECM 12z ensemble mean
Op certainly an outlier ......this is not resolved yet ( and im a bit worried about MetO not being fully on board yet ......especially if i live in the South )
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ECM 0z ensemble mean
The Mean looks really good . Plenty of very cold options in there with the Op at the warmer end .
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ECM 12z Op for Christmas Eve .......seasonal !
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ECM 0z for 21st Dec
If the high is in this position for 21st Dec we really are in a good position going forward. I'd bank this at t144 any day
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ECM 0z ensemble mean
The Op after the 19th is one of the warmest solutions and clearly an outlier.
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GFS 06z precipitation
Chances for something white on Christmas Day ( mostly on high ground for Yorkshire )
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GFS 06z for Christmas Day .....higher ground in Yorkshire anyone ?
UKV 850's for Yorkshire on Christmas Day ...... ( rain to snow perhaps for some ? )
UKMO 12z 850 s for Boxong Day
WRF NMM 0z for Christmas Day evening
WRF NMM 0z for early Boxing Day
GEM 12z 850's
850's on UKMO 12z @ t144 ...are excellent
UKMO 12z for 25th Dec
UKMO 12z @ t144 850's
UKMO 12z 168 hrs chart for Boxing Day is still very good indeed ( as was the 144 chart for Christmas Day)
UKMO 0z for Christmas Day
ECM 12z ensemble mean
ECM 12z Op for Christmas Eve .......seasonal !
ECM 0z for 21st Dec
ECM 0z ensemble mean
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GEM is similar to GFS @ t174 but with colder uppers. ( UKMO looks like it would look fairly similar too if it went a bit further )
24 hour Northerly toppler looks quite likely