Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

David-kig

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    329

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by David-kig

    Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by David-kig

    Ouch. For my money the 0z ECM needs to be well supported in the ensembles and showing the same synoptics as last night or else it'l be advantage GFS. This is the most consistent output ive seen the GFS give for sometime now, which is probably the most worrying thing.

    there were changes in the short term on the gfs but still ended up terrible really

    Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by David-kig

    oh il say slightly better by 144h but that p/v is annoying. still nothing like ecm. gfs is playing a slow catch up and i mean slow. something around greenland is going wrong or the jet. the experts will know. 150h the easterly is nearly there but missing us totally. azores high looks like it wont move. diff problem. could be a good end????

    nice ridge at 180h a northerly? later output becomes mixed..trend towards the ecm at 240h though p/v strong again on this run. more confusion? at least gfs gives a cold dry week. then a nice northerly then cold zonality???????? not a bad run if u look at it? Ecm though is still better longer term i can imagine

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by David-kig

    GFS 00z what a nice run indeed. shame that easterly never quite made it here. ;) but look that that northern blocking ? nice nw-se tilt to the jet to. still seems a slight pain and very active jet? overall a good near perfect run. P.V going west. great start to a new day. lets hope ukmo and ecm follow suit.

    temperatures on gfs for next look look rather low at times? plent of frost on the cards. better then rain and mild muck by any means

    GFS 00z changes, the most significant one for me was them height rises towards the NE at t150 onwards till the far reaches. potential easterly again. -5 uppers from the west and east interlinking. plenty of snow chances. Short term changes minor. final answer moat positivity again is in FI. so still no clear picture. ECM will be important today aswell as ensembles.

    plenty of frost next week to. i have no idea how this is going to end up. the landlady at my local were saying that someone on telly\ news of it to be colder by the end of next week???? how cold who knows

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    a much better gfs 00z following met office forecast. cold throughout fo midlands northwards with milder interludes for southern areas as low pressure tries to attack from the south west and is unsucessful. much better hopingfor more up grades to come. looks like a wintry bag this weekend esp monday

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    There is no guarantee of retrogression occuring, the gfs 06z doesn't end up with a Northerly, in fact, the 6z tended to become less cold in the later stages, especially in the south.

    i tend to agree by looking at the GEFS ens even though it were the milder end of the ens later on it still shows much uncertainty esp after the 17 th

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by David-kig

    morning its 10pm here..so looking a little drier but still cold on the gfs...becomes a bit messy in the middle of the run as the high retrogresses back to greenland..and becomes a bit of a dogs dinner towards the end.

    hey gd morning am i reading the ukmo correctly showing the same as gfs????

    GEFS esm are very good. there is slight disagreement with the exact start of the spell and also the end showing like the gfs very messing and don't know what it wants to do. control run at times was cold and some support of being colder then gfs op. very very good gefs has to be said the a gd cold spell dry or not. better then mild and rain

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by David-kig

    f1 is very messing don't look at that but otherwise still trending with the ECM 12z high pressure close by taking longer to reogress towards greenland. generally gfs 00z is cold and dry. slight downgrade on uppers and most get pushed in france. see no easterly on his run just a slack flow. bring sunshine and frost. overall nothing great on the snow behalf

    i see outlook being cold and dry next week with a chance of an easterly later next weekend. at the moment

    UKMO is now on this trend with only far eastern parts having best chance of snow. high pressure close by slower at bring easterly overall. set back on bring the beast

    btw is that high sinking????????? :s

×
×
  • Create New...