Totoro
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Posts posted by Totoro
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"this is more likely towards the end of next week into next weekend."
That seems to have been a reoccurring theme for those waiting for a snow event from this particular cold spell (and away from Kent of course!). Always just over the metaphorical horizon!
Agreed, the 'jam' is nearly always a week away.
As for this forthcoming 'event' early next week, I'm also not convinced of any widespread snow, especially in the south and the west where you'll be 'lucky' to see a bit of sleet.
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From a general, overall UK perspective I have to say that going from the various model outputs we appear to be enduring a particularly insipid and uninspiring spell of 'weather'. Anything particularly interesting is generally a week away. The problem is that it's almost always a week away.
Some in the south east may get moderate snow at times, but the rest of us are stuck in nothingness.
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Love this timelapse video of a letter box vanishing under a heck of a lot of snow:
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I think perhaps if there is a word that is overused on this forum it is 'severe', nothing on the outlook looks severe. To be severe you would literally need something on the level of 1963 or 1947 - nothing on the chat is anywhere near that harsh.
Agreed. Plus, assuming that the current GFS output verifies (unlikely as it's a week away!) there is some less cold air being mixed up into the flow in a week's time so a cold easterly would then turn into a less cold easterly. Didn't the same thing happen around Christmas 2009 ?
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A very good ECM run, the only problem being 850s a little too high or slightly marginal at time al la the 192, which has a few pockets of -4 to -5 850's which would make things marginal for coastal eastern areas.
But the 192 is so far away that such details won't be known until much nearer the time. Stick to t+72 and you'll be far happier.
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May I ask and gauge what people's idea of a prolonged spell of cold is? My view is up to 3/4 days is a snap. A week to 10 days is a spell. 10-14 days a prolonged spell. This of course is not metorological standards but my own view. And we have a spell coming with possibly breaking into prolonged.
BFTP
My last reply to your post was deleted - I have no idea why. Okay, it's a tad off topic, but so is your question which has obviously remained.
Anyhow, my answer was that your summary sounds reasonable to me.
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Yes but there is a difference between commenting on what a particular run shows and believing it. If we restrict the posts to +72 their would be very little to discuss on here.
Couldn't agree more. However, what I'm trying to prevent is the reactionary posts to anything past t+72 as if such output will definitely occur. I'm not saying don't discuss things past t+72, simply don't take them as fact. Your posts are pretty much spot on TEITS, but those from some other posters are far more emotive and reactionary which often leads to general unpleasantness.
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Spot on post, OK to look ahead for the general trend, which is getting colder from Sunday on and remaining cold for the foreseeable. The detail will change, it always does why do people keep looking at charts at 96hrs plus and expect that detail to make a stately procession into reality. I cannot understand why some seem unable to learn this, despite viewing models day in and day out. Reading through the thread yesterday was a depressing experience, it just really puts you off bothering, It might be an idea to ban the words upgrade and downgrade as models do neither of these, they evolve. The models handling of shortwaves is especially a pitfall in regards looking too far ahead at detail, you can almost guarantee that a shortwave progged for at 96hrs will either have moved, changed intensity (usually less in regards the GFS) or in some cases be lost/absorbed.. Making posts proclaiming snow fest at t96hrs plus, are just pointless wear and tear for your keyboard.
Objectivity is the key here, there are maybe 12 - 24 posters on the model thread who do treat model runs with caution and who make reasonable posts in regards how the detail will develop 72hrs plus. As for the rest, you know there’s an old saying. Better to say nothing and be thought a fool, rather than speak and prove it.
Excellent post, you said it far better than I did.
Can't help but notice that a few days ago people were generally agreeing that anything beyond about t+72 was highly unreliable, yet as soon as anything particularly cold and/or snowy appears on the charts at t+96 onwards people once again get sucked in. Likewise if, in the same FI timeframe, the model output then changes to something less favourable.
Let's have a little more analysis and objectivity here and stop taking much notice of anything past 72 hours.
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Satisfactory output tonight, but extreme caution still needed (probably talking to myself though!). We need to see a consistent trend continued tomorrow and there is still plenty of opportunities for the set-up to go wrong. Far, far too early for backslapping - its not even started to happen yet.
Wise words. Couldn't agree more.
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That ECM t+72 will do fine. Not taking much notice of anything beyond that.
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Careful people, don't get carried away. Anything past t+72 really is FI and very uncertain, whatever the model.
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So the question is, is the GFS now the model of the day or is it just suffering from the usual GFS up and down?
I am really confused I don't believe an easterly is necessarily the end product, but it's quite clear that a southwesterly is very shaky in the model outputs.
There's a message on 'the other weather forum' that moderately critical data was missing plus that there was low data on the 06z GFS run. Or was that also mentioned here and I missed it?
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Perhaps a clue that UKMO arent buying it. Looks like they still with SW influence. Cold, yes possible, but the easterly of GSF
UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 17 Feb 2010:
Mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with hill snow in the north at first. Brighter conditions with showers, some heavy, in the south and west, then following. The rest of the week remains unsettled with bands of rain spreading in from the southwest and turning to sleet and snow at times across northern, eastern and central parts. Some showers and brighter spells, between these bands of rain, temperatures close to or a little below average in many areas. For the rest of the period there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast, but it looks likely that unsettled, rather cold conditions will continue, with rain, sleet and snow at times, temperatures below average with overnight frost and ice.
Updated: 1203 on Wed 3 Feb 2010
Their 15 day forecasts are best ignored - remember only a couple of days ago they were going for "very, very cold" weather next week.
Too much changing at present. As is now the case, ignore anything past 72 hours, and don't even take that as 100% accurate.
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As early as T+72 hrs i knew this run was looking like a stonker and the ensembles did have some runs like it so you can't write it off completely, remember this hasnt come out of nowhere, runs were showing it earlier this week/late last week, the last two weeks have bene cold just we were so used to very cold most got used to it so i can see it staying cold mostly throughout February into March, i think GFS has settled on the eventual outcome now.(maybe less cold though in actuality)
ECM and UKMO has showed this kind of outcome just a day or two ago so whose to say it won't again.
Indeed. Time will tell.
Although now the 'getting colder' output is in a more reliable timeframe.I think it could be said that the only consistency in the models of late has been their inconsistency.
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For goodness sake you have a rep as a stirrer and from what ive seen of your posting style it would appear its a justofied
tag.Any poor operationals and you appear by magic.
PLEASE tell me how is this mild winning the battle for FEBRUARY??????
Codge is a known stirrer and turns up like a bad penny whenever mild charts are shown. I hope he gets firmer treatment here than he did when he was a regular troll on 'that other weather forum'.
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Looking good, but nowhere near 'nailed on' yet. When the 144 output is showing consistently across all models in the 48 to 72 hour range THEN I'll start taking it a bit more seriously. :lol:
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Now I know that these charts aren't very accurate, but interesting to see the prognosis for snow on a number of days:
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?6
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Very much agree and fair play to GP because he said the models were too progressive with the scandi trough.
This has prevented the block moving futher W and ultimately open us to attack from the Atlantic.
Still looking at the 06Z and its nothing like the UKMO at +120. Maybe the drama hasn't finished just yet. Fully agree with Tamara and I have to confess with being erractic with my posts of late.
Oh I don't know, I think you've done very well, unlike the flip flopping models.
I still wouldn't say that this is cut and dried either way - even 3 days ahead the model outputs vary greatly, even from run to run on the same model - I have a sneaky hunch that the Atlantic will 'win', but it also wouldn't surprise me if we end up with kind kind of easterly or south easterly. Fence-sitting seems to be the preferred option right now.
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Quite a number of showers coming into Wales now, particularly in the north - looks like anyone could some SOME snow today. I even saw a short, light shower a while ago.
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The key is the 72 to 96 hr timeframe, at least this piece of the Jigsaw will be solved in the 12Z IMO. 4.10pm this afternoon see you there.
I don't think it'll be 'solved' by one run from one model.
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I more than anyone was dismissing the Easterly over the past few days.
But i was only doing this with it being so far out in FI.
Past 2 or 3 runs as we come closer to the projected time frame when the easterly was showing, has now showed a colder short term, so i think the block is set, and the trend starting especially for eastern areas come wednesday, now it's just down to the cold air in the form of the easterly really pushing East and of course if the Atlantic holds off, which i think it will.
Wouldn't we prefer the cold air to push West and not East?
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Seeing as I F is a professional, one would be wisely considered to pay attention him over say you or many of us on here??? He /believes' what is going to happen using ALL model guidance. Where does your belief come from...UKMO model? :lol:
BFTP
Evens the pros get it wrong.
My belief is in my 'gut instinct'. Never fails.
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This may not be the right thread but look at this from Ian Fergusson's Blog.
Remember February 2009? The deep snow that brought London and much of the southeast to a spectacular standstill? It's by no means impossible that we'll see similar weather establishing across the same parts of the UK in a week or so.... and possibly more widely, too.
Usually, I restrict my blog to matters of forecast interest within a few days of the here-and-now, but the growing signs - and growing forecast model consensus - signalling a return to much colder conditions by the end of next week deserves an early mention. More on all this in a moment...
So onto next weeks developments..
The week actually starts with a temporary return to something a tad milder. B y Tuesday, we expect a spell of fairly widespread rain - with hill snow on it's leading edge, tracking eastwards - behind which, temperatures will peak somewhere around the seasonal average. But thereafter, the trend is one for cold anticylonic weather to steadily exert itself across the country and into the second part of the week, a return to something a good deal colder will become apparent pretty much everywhere, with the exception of the far West and NW.
Between Friday and Sunday, developments are expected to yield a bitterly cold easterly flow off the continent, bringing the risk of snowfall - some potentially heavy - into parts of the SE initially, with a chance of this spreading further westwards to affect other areas. And beyond that, the anticyclonic south-easterly flow could well be replaced by a cyclonic east-to-northeasterly version, thereby continuing to offer a growing risk of further snow.
Hes not the only 1 either thats saying the same thing, Im sorry admin if this is the wrong thread but we need that sort of belief in this thread now.
Belief? What does that have to do with it? This isn't a religion you know, we can't influence the weather any more than we can influence those imaginary gods that some people think exist.
I'm thinking that Ian Fergusson is wrong, also that many people are clutching at too few straws, the real cold weather is always a week away (ie in FI) on the model output, etc. Sorry, but I don't think it's going to happen. I'd LIKE it to happen, but I think it's more likely that I'll suddenly develop the brainpower of Einstein overnight. :lol:
I'm a realist, I don't operate on flights of fancy and what 'should' happen or what I (or others) want to happen. With the weather, what will be will be.
Enough said.
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What we have at 168 is a potential major snow producer on the ECM...
Shame it's a week away.
Although now the 'getting colder' output is in a more reliable timeframe.
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Totoro
Snowing lightly south of Carmarthen, not settling, temp 1.7C and very slowly falling.