SnowStorm(Jamie)

GFS 12Z shows a band of Rain/Sleet and snow pushing down from the North over the country late Saturday still: http://charts.netwea...2/81/ukprec.png http://charts.netwea.../uksnowrisk.png < Snow risk chart As this moves South colder upper air temps will be coming down behind it: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png This front may well be of snow right the way through for inland parts of Wales where dewpoints are more favourable, probably turning to snow at the backedge for South Wales. So the chance of snow showers on the weekend and frontal snow is still there. Waiting to see the UKMO 12z charts now.

Its probably down to there being a strong flow from the NW so its coming off the Irish Sea: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091216/06/84/ukwind.png And the sea surface temperatures are milder so the air is modified and not quite as cold as it would be if the flow was more Northerly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif < Sea surface temp chart Im hoping the flow is more to the north really so when the front comes down we have a greater risk of seeing snow.

GFS 06Z shows the dewpoints holding up for Wales as the front comes down from the North later on Saturday: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs848.gif They do drop eventually so some rain turning to snow seems possible.

Yup i can see the higher dewpoints for Late sat early sun now. Probably because of the Westerly addition to the flow coming off the sea: http://charts.netwea.../102/ukwind.png You can see it keeps the dewpoints up in W/SW Wales slightly: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1028.gif As the flow straightens out coming right from the North then dewpoints will drop again, hopefully in time while there is precipitation around. backedge snow seems most likely though. Anyway its going to change in the coming days i bet, hopefully for the better :lol:

18Z gives the risk of some snow showers on Saturday then later Saturday into Sunday a front coming down from the North could give a spell of snow: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091215/18/102/ukprec.png

We could well get snow out of a battleground situation if we are on the northern edge of the low, theres a chance of that happening next week as shown on the ECM.

Lol Going to keep watching the weekend closely its going to be our best shot at some snow. Best bet would be what the GFS 12Z shows and the ECM is good aswel. Caution is needed though we could just end up with frost. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png < GFS 12Z for saturday with some snow showers around.

Welsh Weather wasnt so promising if your after snow, mentioning cold and frost for the weekend. Suppose not much point in saying any detail anyway as its highly likely to change. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif < ECM 12Z - Increasing risk of snow showers i think

Just seen them charts for Monday, id certainly take that. Long way to go though and more changes to come but i think our chances of some snow stand quite high for the weekend.

That snow risk is still there for early hours of Thursday on the GFS 12Z: http://charts.netwea.../uksnowrisk.png Best chances of snow in East Wales for that one. Late Thursday into Friday: http://charts.netwea...2/60/ukprec.png If only that would come further west Saturday and Sunday stands our best chance of seeing some snow showers from the NW flow and perhaps even frontal snow if temperatures remain low enough.

GFS 06Z still shows the potential for some snow during the early hours of Thursday. http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png The colder air coming in behind it should help turn the rain to snow. The 06z GFS doesnt make much of it but the risk its still there. Reading the Metoffice update for Wales early this morning and it doesn't mention much in the way of snow for us, perhaps something on Wednesday.

GFS 18Z continues to show a period rain/sleet/snow moving through Wales on Thursday: http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png Colder air is flowing in behind it so there is at least a chance of some seeing falling snow, though accumulations would be restricted to the hills: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png Again a front is shown coming down from the north on Sunday on the 18Z, so perhaps some frontal snow with accumulations for elevated areas possible Hopefully we can get some snow out of this setup in the next 7-10days or so, best keep watching Jamie

A chance of some snow on Thursday for Mid and North Wales: http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png Brecon Beacons would do well out of that i think. Then comes the chance of a Northerly on the weekend with a front coming down as shown by the GFS 12Z: http://charts.netwea...airpressure.png Most of Wales would likely see a spell of snow out of that if it were to happen. But looking at the UKMO 12Z the Northely is not as potent as the GFS. Im not so sure but i think in these situations the front tends to decay over the mountains of mid Wales. http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?14-17 < UKMO 144 Chart. The weekend is a while off anyway so more changes to come.

The second cold wave from the east looks allot more potent on the ECM 12z: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif On the UKMO 12Z it doesnt look as potent but still cold none the less. http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif So diffrences at t-120 on the strength of the cold, but it looks like overall the cold theme will continue for over a week. Will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles when they come out. Jamie

Heres Mondays forecast from the Met Office for Wales and the South West: Wales: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...st_weather.html South West: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...st_weather.html Which was updated at 15:46 today. Had some heavy wet snow here earlier, certainly not a bad week at all in terms of snow here. :lol: Jamie

Heavy snow shower just passed here now leaving a covering.

Some more heavy snow earlier this morning, but didnt stick as much. Jamie

Fantastic day here in South Wales! its been snowing on and off heavy since around 10:30pm last night (around that i think). Had a walk in the snow this morning which was around 4 inches deep at the time, at times hard to see as there were blizzard conditions. The current depth is about 5 inches, in some spots maybe more. Well done Julian (JACKONE) for saying it would come bet you got a good few inches too Having another snow shower now. Jamie

Been having some light snow showers here on and off and it has left a dusting so not bad at all.

Both the GFS and the UKMO bring the ppn over Wales and the South West its not the heaviest on offer but here none the less. GFS (12Z): http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20090...2/33/ukprec.png UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm303.gif Had a few snow grains here earlier, lasted a few mins and thats about it so far.

Met Office update for this evening and tonight + Monday for Wales and The South West Wales: Monday- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...st_weather.html South West: Monday- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...st_weather.html

Met Office Updated Warnings: Wales: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...t_warnings.html South West: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html Perhaps some snow flurries also later today, which could become more frequent Monday morning i would have thought. Jamie

Id be happy with 3cm, but i think there's room for more than that. We will see what the Met Office have to say in there update later on today and there Warnings/Advisories will be updated around 11am Fingers crossed

Things are looking good currently id say but of course theres still time for change. We want the UKMO to be correct really because it keeps us under the colder upper air. Also the Mountain forecast is interesting for the Brecon Beacons http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mount...ety/brecon.html Possible drifting snow allong with Blizzard conditions over the summits there. Jamie

Thought id add the Met Office updated outlook for Monday to Wednesday for Wales and The South West. Wales: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...st_weather.html South West England: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...st_weather.html Looks promising at the moment i must say Jamie