[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Sleet and cold rain turned to snow here and we're all white now! 

Showers seem (?) to be a bit more widespread than forecast which hopefully bodes well for this week? 

Edit: we've had very, very large flakes the last 5 minutes, don't think I've seen that many times before! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

It's 0.4°C, dewpoint of -2°C and overcast. Now where's ma snow.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Nollaig Chridheil dhuibh / Merry Christmas all! 

Not a snowy one but here's hoping for a snowy Hogmanay! Cheers all and enjoy! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

29 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

Snow has arrived here

First wee shower here was almost microscopic wet snow! 

Glad to see the good stuff is on its way!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Oh I dunno, if they mention December 2010 again on the model thread  I think we should shut the border at the firewall permanently.  

 

The (potential) snow is about to arrive here so updates incoming hopefully! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I’m sorry guys but are we getting excited about snow in Aviemore and Braemar? Forgive me being such a grinch but I mean that’s something that should happen numerous times per winter, no? Shows how bad it’s getting nowadays.

I think it's more that this kind of set up can deliver a lot in the way of surprises. Slack flow, low(ish) uppers, heavy precipitation, someone will get a surprise. 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

JFF This is quite an interesting chart with a 24°C difference between Cornwall and the Great Glen at -14°.

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

9 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Oh we will still get the BS around random energy or shortwaves blah blah or that run has nudged this 42.1km east /west etc.

That's par for the course for the GFS being available 4 times a day.

Simply put, if you don't look at tonight's ECM day 10 chart in awe and wonder and enjoy the evolution - then why are you actually here looking at charts?

Hope the UKMO verifies for Xmas Eve - like that for a lovely seasonal feel leading into Xmas Day.

If it turns out exactly like that then it'll be me and NorthernStrath in the boose as we'll be basking in sunshine while those of you in the south and east will be buried! 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

10 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I don't see any toys needing to be thrown out of any prams for maybe some time..

Neither do I. Excellent output, best we've had for a long time, particularly for Scotland. 

A TOORP will still happen though. Far too much stock put in individual runs and huge swings in emotions as a result. 

Play silly games, win silly prizes. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

51 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Reporting Scotland mentioned cold Northerlies next week but temperatures modified on or/ by Christmas Day. Mmmm?
Def not cold today though with a max of 11.6C. Mostly cloudy but only the odd spit and spot of rain..

Sounds about right, 23rd and 24th look better for snow currently, then perhaps less cold on Christmas before it becomes colder on Christmas night and into Boxing Day. 

 

Still a week out though so lots could change, particularly with how 850 uppers align. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

There's definitely going to be a F5 TOORP event at some point soon. Better nail down anything valuable while you can. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

I wonder how cold the last 8 days of December would have to be to beat 2010 and prove the Sun right? 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Latest season of The Model Thread is great this year, so much drama!  

 

8°C, still and dull here. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That only adds up to 99 - which one had 34% or did they all have 33.3%?

That only adds up to 99.9% - which one had 33.4%? 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

So I've emerged for another winter! 

Currently -5°C here. 

Here's to a decent winter ahead! 

[Model output discussion - Winter approaches]

How's that for warm air advection? 

[Model output discussion - Winter approaches]

22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Yes. It has. December 2009. ECM, GFS, and later UKMO, all called the brilliant northern blocking without fail from the ultra FI charts, tick tock down to T-0. It was nailed on AND delivered!

But that was nirvana. Hasn't been repeated since!

SLEETY asked about Scandi blocking, 2009 wasn't via a Scandi block but (amazing) Greenland blocking, see attached image. 

 

[Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion]

15 minutes ago, NeilN said:

Are the US and the British Isles allowed to be in the freezer at the same time, or does one have to lose out? To be fair, in our case we win if that comes off!!

Strictly speaking no, both can be very cold at the same time but intense cold in the NE of the USA can mix with warmer air to the SE and cause cyclogensis, leading to a very mobile and stormy pattern over the north and west of Europe. 

[Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

This just found me via Google... Maybe I am losing it but, really?

 

 

Ooft. That is definitely a boardroom decision where none of the staff had the confidence to tell their superiors that this is a terrible idea.

[First Ground and Air Frost 2020-2021 season]

It was -2C here last night so that's the first of the season. 

[Remembering a cold northerly shot early October]

21 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Monday 30th Oct 2000?, heavy wet non settling snow here

No I think it was earlier than that. It stood out for how early it was and sleet in late October here wouldn't be particularly notable. 

[Remembering a cold northerly shot early October]

I remember there being an early potent northerly in early October, potentially late September, which delivered sleet and wet snow at low levels here. Would've been around the year 2000? 

[Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020]

Well that was the best storm we've had in Inverness for years from my location. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Certainly the 6z has watered down any prospects if a prolonged heat spell. As has been said, nothing unusual for SE this time of year. 3 hotish days and then a cool off. Remaining cool and rather unsettled midlands northwards throughout the period. 

Has it? Strong high pressure anchored over Scandinavia and the continent with low pressure out in the Atlantic drawing in south to south-easterly winds? Sounds pretty conducive to prolonged heat if the conditions are right. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

30C possible in the north of Scotland under this sort of flow