NorthernRab
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Posts posted by NorthernRab
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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Wet ... NE Scotland asking what’s the fuss?
If this was January you'd be raging! Until tomorrow night:
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In the spirit of Billy Connolly's mantra "no such thing as bad weather only bad clothing, get yourself a sexy raincoat and live a little", went for for a wee 9k walk this evening and it wasn't too bad really! Don't mind a wet and windy spell from time to time in the summer as it helps everything grow.
Haven't been on at all recently but the early part of the week and last week were stunning with a fair few days in the mid twenties and a couple days of 26C with feels like temperatures a couple degrees north of that. I'm optimistic about the coming summer and fairly confused by the dramatics in the model thread with talk of 2012. Then again I'm often confused by that thread so not change there!
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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Not great news from tonight's clusters if you're after warm/dry weather - big shift to the more unsettled path by D7 (though good for Shetland!)
Pretty decent for much of Scotland actually, could produce quite a few nice warm days after the cooler uppers are filtered out.
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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
GFS is an embarrassment. The op and all of its members wrong at 72.
It hasn't happened yet. Many a time we've seen the GFS right where all other models were wrong and this is one set of runs. Simmer, as we say up here
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Very unusual for me to cheer the downgrade over a northerly, but there's a significant move away from the potency of any incursion between the 6z and the 12z.
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58 minutes ago, Alderc said:
BTW - Arpege has a tiny spot in NE Scot on Friday afternoon @ 29C.....although I don't believe there's any official weather stations there!
The Highlands and the North East (the Scottish one) quite often do very well in these set-ups, ARPEGE has 28'C for my neck of the woods on both Friday and Saturday so keep an eye on the Highlands and Islands Weather page on Facebook as @MKN says. You used to be able to access the weather stations (of which he has a lot) independently but I think that feature might now be removed.
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It's snowing.
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4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:
Sunday and Monday looks raw for many of us! Only really the areas mentioned in my previous post look at risk of wintry/snow flurries/showers. (North East of Scotland added to that)
Met Office summary for Highlands & Eilean Siar:
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
More cloud around Thursday and Friday but still some sunshine along with scattered showers, heavy in east, warm. Rain clearing south through Saturday then sunnier, colder, wintry showers far north.
Met Office even going for snow down to sea level across Highland and the NE for a time on Sunday morning with temperatures just above freezing and a feels-like temperature of -4. Then dry with occasional sunny spells and 10C by Monday.
GFS seems to corroborate this:
A very odd and brief return to winter on the cards!
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48 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Yeah, was about the say the same. Thankfully the cold is soon shut off, so we may have 2 or 3 cold days tops before temperatures recover. Good. Nobody (apart from maybe 0.1%) of the population wants single figure maximums in May.
Don't think I'm alone in the north in saying that I have absolutely zero interest in seeing anything white falling from the sky or anything like -7 temperatures at this time of the year.
The garden with all the fruit/vegetable plants and flowers is doing really well after such a beautiful April.
Hopefully the 12hz is just going off on one and reverts to the 6hz (pictured below) to conform with the ECM and we see the high collapse over the UK to bring a recovery in temperatures and more warm sunshine.
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57 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Turn back the clock to early-mid Nov when peeps were getting excited by southerly tracking lows, and all 'we' ended up with was weeks of cold rain.
Whilst the Winter-resident AH/mid-Atlantic High (take your pick on the name) stays relatively 'put', add in the Winter 19/20 2nd HP foe, namely the Ruskie High, and we'll just get a return to cold rain, being brought across Blighty, on system after system. Yuk! Bring on Fuerteventura in late March
Scotland had a very frosty November due to the southerly tracking lows with snowfall at times.
If we are to return to a period of southerly tracking lows, there's a lot more cold to the north given the time of year.
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The past few days were lovely in their own right, frosty and lots of frozen icy surfaces and snow remnants alongside thick freezing fog, very seasonal. Pretty precarious walking conditions in parts of the city but very much the reality of winter. Going by that thread you'd think there was nothing to enjoy about the weather just because we're not in the grips of a big freeze.
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Quite heavy snowfall here for a time with a covering, now sleet and very slushy out there. None too bothered as we're not locked into a cold pattern so wouldn't have lasted anyway, but was lovely to see!
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19 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:
You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last
Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures
A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..
Have the Cairngorms shifted 400 miles south without me realising? I'd have thought I'd have noticed.
It really wouldn't take much at all for this particular operational run (never mind the ensembles!) to give some significant snowfall for Scotland and even parts of northern England.
The "huge" difference between yesterday's operational 12z and today's should be teaching folk a lesson about how knife edge this sort of set up can be and how it could possibly turn more favourable quite quickly.
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Oh God it's the first wave of despair on that thread.
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And for good measure, strong heights approaching Greenland.
All completely just for fun, but the important part is the general pattern for early next week. Anything after is a case of trying to work out vague indications for the macro situation in the longer range.
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The jet visiting the Azores here, pretty amazing stuff!
And on its way to say hello to Cape Verde soon after.
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Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run.
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This weather ??
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^ Aye, it's -5°C at Tulloch Bridge and it's only 4pm. -10°C tonight certainly seems possible.
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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Is there a CET version just for Scotland
Looking at models now your window of mild appears to be about 3-4 days then back in the Cold from Weds -
Could be a CET 2-3c November for you guys
We're lucky we even have weather stations.
Joking aside, I think there will be something close to this. It'll be somewhere in the Met Office figures as we do get Scotland specific figures.
Edit: happy 10,000th post when it comes by the way.
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Ice day here with temperatures failing to get above 0°C, very cold overnight and a hard frost which remained throughout the day.
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15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Where is your location, -7 already at half 9 preety good going..
I'm assuming NorthernStrath won't mind me answering but unless he's flitted recently, he's just south of here by about 10 mile or so. I believe he lives in an igloo between Moy and Tomatin.
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Cold here at -3'C, think there's a chilly night to come!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Unsettled incursions in the NW of Europe, who'd have thought!