ISAAC

what a massive change. Interesting video though... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16165125

going to be a very interesting evening of model watching, rarely do we this amount uncertinaty at such a close timeframe, even at T+36 we have no real indication of how this will pin down. this will probably be one of those localised events where one folk will get a dumping of 4 inches, and the other 20 miles down the road will have a slushy mix. Apart from last 2 winters, almost 9/10 had our best snowfalls have come from marginal events as such. december 1996, feb 2002 and more recently feb 2007 are my top 3, rain all day turning to heavy snow, wet out conditions turning into white out conditions.... unbeatablle can we have a repeat? hmmmmmm

Been lucky ebough to catch a hail,snow mix shower in stoke. Thanks to temps and timing of the shower everything is white

-4.5c 850 uppers here in stoke. thickness is just as if not more important in these setups, ask JH. although i understand your concern anything below -5c can make snow marginal on lower ground. remember early january 2010 set up, we had snow for a good 2 hours with uppers of 0 to -1c, 520 dam line. in prolonged showers temperatures and dewpoints drop very quickly!

524 dam line 524 dam line 524 dam line!

Yes, also worth mentioning the thickness is on the right side of marginal which is very important factor in this case, 524dam is perfect for snow.

im from stoke and there was no snow and there is no snow at the moment, uppers and 500HPA are far too high, maybe in 12 hours time though

snow risk increasing for tomorrow in the west midlands

uppers are around -4c to -5c accross the NW of england. Even down here in stoke the dewpoint is at -2.2c.... http://www.weatherlink.com/user/coyney656/index.php?view=summary&headers=0

welcome to the forum. 10 inches for coventry

Moderate snow in stoke

Yep, always happens here in such set ups, its quite suprising to see the difference a few miles can make

Light sleet here in south stoke. reports of some flakes in north stoke

Buxton always does well in these set ups, now send them down here in stoke !

Dewpoint now down to 0c in stoke... all we need now is precipitation!

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/coyney656/index.php?view=summary&headers=1 12 Hour Forecast Mostly Cloudy, Snow within 12 hours

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/coyney656/index.php?view=summary&headers=1 12 Hour Forecast Mostly Cloudy, Snow within 12 hours

Temp 2.7c and dewpoint down to 1.7c so definatly some wintriness if any showers come through

Yep, luckily im in the north of staffs so maybe ill see atleast a shower or two with a dusting, doubt ill get the 5cm

Im in stoke,North Midlands, so cant rule out anything, cheshire gap wont work as its not a direct NW flow, but a few showers could still flter tonight. currently 3.5c and a dewpoint of 3.3c

excitement on here is inevitable, there is consistency in terms of cooling to an extent on the gfs and ecm, but its still beond t+240 never mind t+172. if the models continue picking up on the pattern 48 hours from now, then we have something. there is no need point worrying about out what we can expect in terms of cold and snow at the moment. once we have a pattern in place that is 3/5 probability we can then take a step forward. Its good to see alot of newbies on here, my advice to you lot is not to take every model and start analysing its ouput side by side, what is shown on the 12z may well be a gonner on the 18z or vice versa. Rather take them day by day. This is why i prefer the ECM as it updates just twice.

Great stuff Arnie this one i made earlier this year.... watch in full screen 1080p for best viewing enjoy

we are still in october and here we got people getting ever so worried... Relax...

Thanks for sharing, i do rememeber this, was all over the news too. Here are the charts for that day...

cheers, yep it was taken up at stoke i love how the moon comes up orangy... funny how we tend to miss this in real life