ISAAC

The band has arrived in stoke and it is ...... Sleet. Do expect it to turn to snow when the heavier when the precipitation picks up

Well stoke is bang on in the knife edge situation. If we get snow from this then its all cheers for u. Then again I am nearly 180m ASL so always helps.

4 hours of light snow. We have just under 2cm now. Looking more seasonal out there for a change.

yes mark, always seems to happen in this set up, 10 miles north of you is much better. Some green blobs on the radar coming in for you though

It's been 2 hours of non stop light snow. Now picking up with more decent size flakes. Radar is looking better too now.

yes remember that, very similar timing but i dont think it will be all gone by tomorrow am, some thaw yes. we have nearly a cm now , from an hour of light snow. non stop

Light Snow here in Stoke On Trent. Settling too.

526 dam 850hpa Temps -5 °c i disagree, those are the figures for tomorrow 3pm stoke. the warm sector passes after midday. definatly snow in any heavier bursts.

4th Feb 2012 was one of the most significant single snow events in the past 10 years for stoke. We got about 15 cm ffrom that all day event. Fog and higher temps resulted in a 2 day thaw

Light sleet/ powdery snow flurries have began in stoke

-0.6c Late and crazy, i know

poor run from the ECM .... if your no fan of becoming an eskimo (if thats how you spell it ? )

Met O going for risk of wintry showers developing in shropshire and stafforsdhire this afternoon/evening. Although no indication of any shower activity as yet, any precipitation thats falls after 3pm is very likely to be wintry as the uppers begin to fall to -6c

On a side note, synoptics such as the GFS tend to favour marginal snow events. And from experience IMY the best snowfall usually does come from marginal situations. Some may prefer prolonged cold, frost and snow showers. But who would brush away the chances of a huge snow event regadless of uppues of -3c. Just saying

The GFS was showing up slightly different synoptics around in T140-240 once every 2 or 3 runs as expected before nailing it with backing from the other big models but you are right that was more profound overall. The issue here is it's only been the last 24 hours where we are seeing shift in trend with the ECM and most especially GFS.

Guys guys, easy! Remember November 2010, there was alot of chopping and changing all the way till the start of the cold spell. We had eye candy -15c uppers showing at one stage even in T140 with the gfs and then back to -5c in between runs with attempts of the Atlantic pushign back in FI. This was just bound to happen, we see great charts and expect them to keep showing up, but it just doesnt happen like that I wouldn't totally undermine the GFS, but take 4 daily runs and see the overall pattern day by day. If by tomorrow 18z GFS continues this tread and IF backed up by the UKMO and ECM then i'd be worried.

I have been following the models and the discussions on here for a while now. 5 years ago i remember on here we would get over excited with a 2 day toppler but since 2010 things have really taken a twist. All i can say november/decemeber 2010 potential all over again. A week late but who cares? we have 3 good months of winter left and to have such synoptics in place already who are we to complain! Thanks GP, your long term and global insight is always helpful.

Turning out to be a historical one this, atleast 6 inches out there, no ramp: photos coming soon

that was an hour ago

turned out to be agreat dumping here in stoke, easily 5cm if not more. bigger echoes in the radar heading here

At the moment around 3-4cm in stoke on trent

have over an inch here in stoke, worse yet to come

about 2cm here now, will update with pics

This was about 15 minutes ago, getting deeper and heavier by the minute...

in the longton area, moderate snow here now and sticking very well