Andy_Calafell_Sheffield
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Everything posted by Andy_Calafell_Sheffield
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Model Output Discussion:
Andy_Calafell_Sheffield replied to Methuselah's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've heard many times people say compare like for like runs ... ie. 12z with 12z and 18z with 18z. If we remember back to yesterday the 18z also did a similar thing, and tonight's 18z is an improvement over last nights 18z during the all important timeframe. -
Model Output Discussion
Andy_Calafell_Sheffield replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The FAX charts show the 528 dam line not far away from the east coast and with a feature running along the channel dragging colder air on its northern flank. Admittedly, will probably not be a low level event if it materialised as is, a bit of elevation would be needed. Still, lots of time for this to change, and a lot of these changes will most likely come from the GFS with the way it has been performing recently :lol: -
Model Output Discussion
Andy_Calafell_Sheffield replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmmmm, I wouldnt say laugh at the warnings. From what I can see, there will be a strong SE/ESE flow bringing up at the very least some surface air from a very cold continent. Can't really comment until we see the 850's. -
Snizzle here atm and temp at -0.9. Pavements and roads were lethal this morning, people falling over everywhere, even in the city centre. My drive was like an ice rink. Can't say I've seen anything at all like this before.
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Very true. Also, could bode well for places further south in the region as we could hold onto abit more intensity as it has no hilly areas to pass to get here ... there also seems to be a small disruption running close to the east which may produce abit more intensity too. Would be quite a surprise having a few extra cm's considering the cold spell is practically finished.
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Temp is -0.7 here with a dew of -1.5 so any snow will definitely be freezing over again. I wonder if there might be one or two heavier bursts towards the south of the region tomorrow, could be one or two surprises I guess.
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Same here mate, snow not melting at all, in fact the temp is bang on at 0. Do you also have a very thick fog that has formed that seems to have left a layer of rime too on the trees?
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Have got 15cm on my back garden path and 18cm on the grass. Temp at 0.1 and snowing lightly. Quite foggy too.
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I'm at Intake, around 190m asl.
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Temps still surpressed here in SE Sheffield at 0.2 ... very light snow continues.
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Yay. Temp is finally down to bang on zero. Makes me feel a little better lol
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Heavier snow here now, looks like a bit more will be coming in from the ESE too. Temp at 0.1
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I think it may just appear sleety as the ppn is very very light now. It is marginal but i'm only at 190m and the temp is 0.1 and the dew is -0.6 so should bs supportive of snow and no melting.
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There is a bit of dripping going on I think ... the dreaded sound !
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Temp at 0.1 here, although the ppn has nearly stopped too.
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Seems to be the other way around here at Intake, dew point doesnt seem to be changing much (around -0.6/-0.7) but the temperature keeps dropping, down to 0.2 now.
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yeah, elevation could make a bit of a difference in this situation both with intensity and temps.. although the humidy is rising, the temperature seems to be dropping to dorpping at a similar rate and the net results is a steady dp at the moment!
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Surprisingly, is settling here from the small flakes, even on the roads that have been gritted quite a few times in the last few days.
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Temp is at 0.6 with dew of -0.55 with heavier ppn on the way by the looks of things. Hopefully temps and dews don't rise too much otherwise it will be getting very knife edge.
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Don't see how it is 43 degrees (fahrenheit I'm presuming, so 6.1 celcius) ... I'm in Sheffield (albeit maybe a little higher) it is 1.0 with only a slight thaw.
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The first day above freezing in a fair number of them here. The temp is 1.2 with a dew of -1.35. It was obvious to see a backtrack to the BBC and MetO forecasts coming as that sort of ppn intensity was never shown on the models. Without the intensity either, this would have lead to the more marginality that we are currently seeing in many areas atm.
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From my experience of using the NMM model, it does often seem to underdo the amount and intensity of any ppn that occurs.
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Lookis like a miss for south east sheffield despite the 700 wind vectors showing it would be a direct hit.
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And you're complaining? lol ... the real easterly component to the wind is only just starting to kick in.
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I think look norths prediction of snow may be slightly wrong again with saying the showers will push into south yorkshire. That large stream of showers is making landfall in a very similar place as the NMM model suggests and this shoes it effecting north and west yorkshire rather than south yorkshire ... let's wait and see. Temp is -2.2 and dp is -5.5.