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BarnetBlizzard

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, AO- said:

    Not a really great mean at day 11 imo. Uncertainty on the through over Canada and where it is heading. Also the vortex over the Barentsz sea is heading West between day 9 and 11. Nothing to worry about atm, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Let's see how EC is playing it tonight as it has backtracked a little this morning. 

    GFSAVGEU12_264_1.png

    GEM Mean though...😎

    image.thumb.png.601f15b1b8ee15342b3c288677c920e1.png

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by BarnetBlizzard

    9 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    GEFS looks beautiful, only a couple of ensembles that don't bring in very cold air now and more deep cold runs I think with better longevity, roll on ECM.

    The GEFS mean isn't actually as good as 6z. GEM Mean on the other hand is brilliant at +162:

     

    image.thumb.png.8b349377cc330b9deef19a9e00f8f8b7.png

     

    and at +186... even better:

     

    image.thumb.png.bf53106897b0f2e51387ce01e780a707.png

    • Like 2

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Whilst the GFS run looks a bit dodgy with that shortwave, it does show a potential option: 

     

    image.thumb.png.977c3d170cb1e24923bd65fcdf40623a.png

     

    If we can get that cut off low to travel ENE and maintain a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, it will accelerate cold uppers from the NE towards us. Not saying its likely, but I've seen it a few times on some runs/ensembles so one to watch. 


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996502
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Whilst the GFS run looks a bit dodgy with that shortwave, it does show a potential option: 

     

    image.thumb.png.977c3d170cb1e24923bd65fcdf40623a.png

     

    If we can get that cut off low to travel ENE and maintain a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, it will accelerate cold uppers from the NE towards us. Not saying its likely, but I've seen it a few times on some runs/ensembles so one to watch. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I've been viewing the charts every day in winter since 08 and there is an argument for these to be the best (consistently produced) day 10 charts I've seen. I think only Jan 10, Dec 10 and Feb 18 rival these.

    The fact these are being consistently produced across different models is a very good sign

    • Like 15

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Try here - JMA gathered some overall data.... but composites across months with variable amplitude and different background factors eg ENSO are certainly not gospel!

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn MJO

    DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

     

    Thanks! Phase 3 for Jan looks pretty good (taking your point about not being gospel). 

    image.thumb.png.ad8fa9bb2de4cf57c6b68982e6cbadf0.png

    Some longer range forecasting suggesting a colder shot mid month might coincide with MJO hitting phase 3 around 5th-10th Jan as per some MJO forecasts:

     image.thumb.png.7a78ce38a2556febc2422a54e8058fda.png

    Realise I might be clutching at straws here! 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by BarnetBlizzard

    26 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    I can't think of much that can theoretically override a high amplitude MJO signal in all honesty - a strong, coupled vortex working top down would see it off....that's not what we have at the moment. Vortex is weakening.

    Phases 2 - 5 are poor for us, so if the MJO progresses as fast as ECM has it progressing today towards phase 2 then our goose is cooked. I am awaiting today's CPC assessment on the MJO before making any rash calls, but I have to admit that the white towel is sat on my lap. Even with a spike in momentum which I do think we will get shortly, a COD phase of 7/8/1 as poor as ECM is modelling it - and BOM has pretty much come into line on amplitude also - would spell the end of any hope of the kick we need to get a block at higher latitude. This would leave us with a mid lat context at best, preventing any flux from stabbing towards the arctic to disrupt things there and also reducing the chances of anything like a significant wave break to provide that block.

    Sadly I have spent the last few years fighting against my instincts, namely that the only way for the UK to see sustained and bitter cold in a warming world is for us to get a significant SSW, and probably a split SSW for maximum impacts. Over the last few years I have said this many times but decided to go into this year with a renewed sense of what the trop on its own could offer us. I remember swapping some messages with GP in the aftermath of the Dec 2012 fiasco and the failed torpedo: he was certainly beginning to reflect on the fact that the modern global setup was mitigating against patterns that were once more predictable in terms of response. The theory of pattern creation is increasingly being challenged by the observed reality. Any evidence for my instincts? The one that sticks is the increasing number of times that our coldest patterns are dropping into March, when impacts of a late winter strat warming are at their greatest. Increasingly, prior to March, how often are we seeing vortex-inspired westerly dominance with a northerly shunted Hadley Cell dominate Jan and Feb? Pretty much every year. We get the occasional coldish spell at the start of the season - indeed twice in 2 years now we have fallen lucky there....but once the core of "winter" arrives the pattern defaults to flat.

    If the CPC do not throw us a bone later then, for me, the trop impacts of the current wave become a fail, and that will mean the end of the first half of winter. We wont see a high lat block on the back of phase 2-5 progression. All eyes will literally turn to the stratosphere and the hope that we can get some joy from a proper warming. Chances there are still good. And we may also be lucky enough to be able to time the effects of this (2-4 week lag) with the next pacific wave....and that means February or late Jan at the absolute earliest. Perhaps the seasonal models were sniffing exactly this kind of potential when they were looking at a colder Feb - though, to be honest, my mind boggles as to how seasonal NWP runs in terms of a mathematical model. If we cant get NWP accurate at 7-10 days then how on earth does a seasonal model do it at lead times of 8-12 weeks....and surely if month 1 busts then all subsequent months bust!!!

    Anyway, sobering times. I am hoping my 3cm of snow at the start of the month that lasted half a day is not the last I see this season....but we may well be on the cusp of having to look way into the future at lagged impacts of a SSW. On the positive side, let no one forget the awesomeness that was Feb/Mar 2018. My favourite weather in the UK probably ever. That is what a SSW can do. Roll on the next example.

    I always thought Phase 1/2 at amplitude could mean low pressure into Europe and high pressure around Iceland? If correct, this would be decent for UK cold prospects? 

    I might be wrong though, really struggling to find any info about these phases and how they influence UK weather. Lots to say 7/8 are good (for cold) and 3/4 are bad but not much about 1/2. 

     

    Edit: I did find this: image.thumb.png.010fa12cf0dc0493469d9fdbe5e535b4.png

    • Insightful 2

    South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    With regard to wind direction as well as shower direction, we need to remember that its not the surface flow that will dictate the direction but the flow a little above out heads. Current flow at 850hpa is thus:

    image.thumb.png.6b5d0ded8ef3d38fbd5ca0d4ab3b4187.png

    Given the convection is quite thin I'd guess at the moment, we don't need to go high for a steering current, but in deeper convection 700mbs+ maybe more useful. I'm sure Paul S could give a better explanation though as its key in storm chasing!!

    Usually there isn;t much difference but at times there can be. Yesterday evening was one of those days where the lower flow was near due north (NNE) but the airflow higher up was ENE/E, hence why the shower bands shifted westwards as the forcing at higher levels was forced Westwards but kept moving SSW on the lower airflow currents.

     

    Hi mate, do you when thing might become more favorable for us in North london? Cheers 

    • Like 2

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, kold weather said:

    Yep I just noticed that, the 12z ICON looks quite close to what the Met office warning shows.

    Still would be some snow as the front clears to the south, especially on the backside of it, but beyond that it doesn't have quite so much further west for sure.

    HOWEVER, the ICON is shocking at picking up inland convection, so there could  be plenty of showers packing in on Sunday which it won't show.

    yeah to be honest, the Icon keeps moving west and east from each run. lets see what the other 12z show

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