BarnetBlizzard
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Posts posted by BarnetBlizzard
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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:
The 6hrs output is onthe UKMO website, doesn't go beyond that, hope this works:
Past 6hrs resolution decreases. From 4-5pm showers start to become more potent, similar to those hitting up north.
That works great, thanks
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Just now, kold weather said:
Yeah, the UKVlatest update shows quite the rash of showers forming from 4pm onwards with a marked uptick around 8pm...same time as the Feb 09 streamer really went into overdrive!
Hey, do you know where I can see this latest update?
Cheers
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Around 2 inches here now and snowing heavier again
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As you can see the freezing level is moving up London, this should start to drop back down from 11-12pm
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Still snowing heavily here in Barnet, reports of turning back to rain in south London a little concerning ?
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As if by magic, rain turning to wet snow.
I've also just walked into a cupboard on the way to the window to lamppost watch...
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It was always forecast to start off being very marginal however I wouldn't give up hope yet.
As you can see on https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.9;-1.2;5&l=freezing the freezing level is around 400m in north London at the moment but is expected to drop to 100m/0 in the next hour or so as the winds wrap round to a more northerly direction.
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Snowed here initially in north London with it settling everywhere. Now turned to rain and was turning everything to slush
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Clouds building and darkening here, also a slight increase in precip through the spine of the country. Maybe it might start to kick off within the next hour?
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Just now, Steve C said:
Barnet blizzard could be a euphemism for severe dandruff... After all, his location is mentioned as York.
Made this account 8 years ago! I now live somewhere else!
I would not say -4 to -5 guarantees rain, especially with slack winds and heavy precip. Whether it settles on wet ground etc is another question.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I was thinking that myself but being a good few runs have been showing a belting lately, I wonder if I would just rather see consistency, its not like they have been short of Northern blocking deeper into FI either.
A consistent upgrade would also be nice! What I like about this run is that the upgrade is occurring around day 5-7 rather than day 10-12, therefore has less time to downgrade. Of course the upper air temps would be a bit lower in an ideal world but with slack winds at times and heavy precip about then snow somewhere would be more likely than not.
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GFS 6z shows second low turning up a lot quicker with better heights behind it. Could be a good run this one.
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20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:
Much as it pains me to say it the SE doesn't look to bad at the moment
Pub run looking good thus far. Slightly better heights out west, slightly better northerly.
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Much better from the 12z, not as good as yesterday but better than this mornings 6z. UKMO better still.
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6 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:
Less on an easterly on this chart for this actual timeframe but moving on a lot better.
the colder air to our ne could well trickle west southwest so much chopping and changing be very surprised if there's nothing wintry moving further on even in the south.
How is it moving a lot better? The 6z shows less of everything -cold, snow and prospects for a reload.
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If you are looking for settled, chilly weather then the GFS 6z is great news. Anyone that wants anything remotely exciting will be disappointed.
Big let down for me after yesterdays great output. Hope its wrong but the GFS has been the trend-setter this winter.
Lets see what the rest of the day brings but a back track from the GFS is pretty unlikely.
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12z looks like an upgrade at the moment. Slightly better ridge, better heights over Greenland with more energy going south east. Lets see what the rest of the run brings.
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andddd a bit of an upgrade for next wednesday. Wait until tuesday morning before getting too downbeat, things will change.
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No downgrades for me, latest gfs ensembles still showing 10-12th feb as our best chance of snow.
Quite a few showing coldish uppers making their way down the country:
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Is anyone else having a look at the GFS 6z ensembles? They look pretty nice to me- especially for 10-12th Feb where a lot of the runs show runners taking a more southerly track- dragging colder air from north into the UK.
If there is going to be a surprise snow event anytime soon- its gunna be in this period.
Oh yeah and this is day 6-8 not day 10.
Edit: uppers are not particularly cold, but you never know....
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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:
well its been a great winter here, we've had over three feet of potential. i took the kids out to build a potential-man, then we had a potential-ball fight. brilliant!
Isn't that what model watching is though- looking for potential that could produce weather scenarios which appeal to you.
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Just now, karlos1983 said:
The GFS is just taking the Biscuit out of us now!! You want cold do you UK.... have cold rain and that's your lot..
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=222&code=0&mode=0&carte=1
For me, that chart shows a lot of potential...
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Slight improvement on the 12z GFS at 132 hours- a little more heights in the Atlantic extending a little further north.
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15 minutes ago, booferking said:
Yea maybe for you rain! but really can people in here not read maybe i need to highlight the 3 crucial words that people love to overlook. most of us
Now when you look at that chart provided kindly by Rocheydub you can see over 3/4 of the country is seeing some way in form of snow
You take that GFS chart way too literally. It is by no mean accurate. If you want to look at precipitation type and amount in more detail then there are several good options on a site like Meteociel.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Does that mean he will get a lot