[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

 

Well well well, ICON being a bit adventurous this afternoon. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

I've had a few drops of rain here in North London and thats it. Every storm has developed just north, west or south.

 

Last 24 hour precipitation shows this well 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

 pretty much as close as you can get

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Storm grew overhead in North London but is moving away. So close but so far...

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

Further evidence that most cases are asymptomatic: 

Coronavirus: Experiment in northern Italian town halts all new infections after trial

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

The experiment involved blanket testing of the town's entire population of 3,300 people.

 

 

“for every 1 patient that had symptoms, another 10 were asymptomatic” 

 

 

 

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Normal oxygen saturation is 95-98%. My 93% certainly indicates my oxygen levels are being effected.

What levels would be considered dangerous? 

I pray that you get over this quickly!

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Brilliant, I really hope they develop this test and in high numbers. Then we can start testing large portions of the population and a better understanding of the true death rate can be found.

Additionally, we can test all health workers and all those that have had the disease can fully commit to helping others.  

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

Just read that influenza infects up to a billion people a year. If we consider Corona virus has been circulating since mid November that's 4 months. 

That's a third of a year so if corona virus spreads as quickly as influenza then we could be looking at 333 million infections right now.

Obviously, the growth rate is exponential, so the first third of the year wouldn't equal 1/3rd of cases by the end of the year however it could be reasonable to assume this virus has infected millions already?

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some more data from Italy

• 14,363 in hospital with symptoms
• 2,257 in intensive care
• 12,090 in home self-isolation.

I wonder what the true figure is for the number of people in Italy with coronavirus? Could we be talking upwards of half a million?

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

4 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Quite possibly. I am fairly young and have always had a rather resilient immune system, so yes, possible. However, I have been using masks always and use stringent hygiene, so equally as likely I have kept it away.

I had a headache and itchy nose for 1 day on Monday but unlikely to be related, most likely fatigue.

Well good luck to you! 
 

I read an article yesterday that said 3000 people were tested in a town in Italy and 50-75% tested positive but had no symptoms.

 

This matches the data that’s come from the diamond cruise ship where a large proportion (can’t remember figures) also had no symptoms.

While this is good news when considering the death rate, it could be the reason why this virus has spread as rapidly as it has. If 50% of people don’t have symptoms then they will still Be going out spreading it unknowingly.

 

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

1 minute ago, matty007 said:

Sorry to hear about it.

Unfortunately, a fate likely coming my way too very soon. I am amazed every day that I escape this.

Could it be that you are one of the lucky ones who doesn’t show any symptoms? 

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

5 minutes ago, Onding said:

I'm glad people are confident about this. I'm not. We are in unchartered territory and the idea that it'll only be 6-7k deaths in Italy is wide of the mark. There won't be a vaccine for some time and we've got the autumn and winter to get through, when there is likely to be further peaks potentially worse than this one. Countries will be better prepared yes, but health systems only go so far. There's a reason even conservative estimates have 20k deaths for the UK - this will be active for some time, in repeated peaks and troughs until we're all vaccinated.

I'm confident the lock down will reduce deaths in the coming weeks based on whats happened in China and what is happening in the last few day in Italy. 

It won't just be 6-7k deaths though, once they resume some sort of normal life then this virus will hit back. Hopefully by this point we will have a better understanding on how to treat severe cases, have more Doctors and nurses, more ventilators etc and as a result less deaths.   This virus won't stop however until we have herd immunity - either through the majority of people contracting it or via a vaccine. 

 

 

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

was hoping we might have better news today.

Number of deaths each day has remained stable for a few days now, this is good news. We should start to see a decrease by the weekend. 

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

Just now, kold weather said:

14 more deaths reported, death toll in UK is now 69.

This is added to 6 more deaths on Germany, 10 in the USA, 8 in Switzerland and the list goes on and on.

Actually far better than I imagined it would be for today.

[COVID-19 Pandemic]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Have they said why, is it recatchable or something? 

No, you can still pass it on even after symptoms have passed. 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Who else here is surprised that Swine Flu killed nearly 600,000 people worldwide? 

I kind of assumed that it didn't kill many people as the panic seemed to end as quickly as it started. 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Amazing consistency from the GFS you have to say. How many runs is that in a row that has hinted at an easterly around a similar timeframe? 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

I can’t remember who has mentioned it before but they suggested comparing the 12z to the 12z the day before and the 0z with the 0z the day before etc instead of comparing the 12z to the 6z.  

If we do this we can see consistent improvements from run to run because although the 0z appear to keep downgrading on the 12z 12 hours before, they keep improving on the 0z 24 hours before. 

Might be a silly suggestion but thought I’d mention! 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

GFS 6z a good run for me. PV drained away from Canada, heights to our NE beginning to push towards Greenland and a trigger low diving down towards Iberia. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

In north London, Barnet and it’s pure rain atm 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Merry Xmas everyone!

The GEFS ensemble has been out on the razzle: 

If that’s not a strong signal towards cold I don’t know what is. 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Where’s this gfs going then? Heights building further north, cold building in Europe, hmm

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

To me, the models are starting to firm down on the idea of the high over the UK gradually moving west/nw after 200 hours +. 

As it edges westwards the pv begins to force its way southwards into Europe leaving uk under some kind of northerly. 

That’s the starters 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

Snow picking up here in north London, already heavier than most of yesterday