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kumquat

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by kumquat

    Quote

    "And most importantly, it will be dry."

     

    Yep 18Z shows a good outlook in this respect from 192 onwards as the last part of the vortex forced into our direction shreds off south into Iberia - some rain for them and the start of some higher pressure for us. Possibly going into the next couple of weeks cooling from the east and then warming again from the SW - but please let us have some sun and not just the grey skies of late. (NW coast Africa/ out to Azores SSTs not withstanding)

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by kumquat

    There will be other bands and filaments of ppn off the SW low. Notwithstanding it going too far south, I think there'll be some interest for the south coast up to the M4 (so yeah SOUTH of the M4)

     

    Separately, Cheshire gap streamers and even into Shropshire I can see some trough action happening right into the Midlands. Don't think this will be as dry as a lot of posters seem to think it will be...

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by kumquat

    Looking forward to the cold dry weather that is progged up until next weekend. Plenty of little features will pop-up to give snow to lucky places prone to the north west especially up north, Scotland and Northern Ireland / Eire. Also anything sticking out from the East coast anywhere down. All of those NW facing coasts might do OK , Cheshire Gap Streamers and the odd dangler into Pembrokeshire and out the other side into Exmoor and south west peninsulars. Wishbone and troughs. Fun times might pop-up. Also think the northern extent of ppn from the SW low could come increasingly north as a wraparound from N France/ Belgium and hit Kent and the South East. Not ruling out a pasting into the far South coast and moving north more than progged into higher up South West into Cotswolds and as far as the Midlands This is my Pub Run and I'm sticking to it. Covering as many areas as possible and even a little bit into Oxon and Leics.

    And of course when NickSussex gets off the plane.

    Good luck all! 😀

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