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kumquat

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    Cold Spell Discussion 5

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by kumquat

    it aint an inversion its the high moving north with a brief weak easterly

    Not sure if you're replying to me, David so question for anyone - I know the high moves off to the north but for the couple of days before that while the high builds from the south and sits over the UK, and the local forecasters are talking about fog and frost, is this part what is called inversion? I.e. where the surface gets cold - which can help prospects down the line? i.e does that help our temps possibly stay even lower when the easterly (however weak) kicks in?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by kumquat

    Also I'm seeing (and I know I shouldn't look at the precip charts this far out) but I'm seeing low enough -5 850s for snow being shown on the netweather GFS 18z charts for possibly flutters from Sunday Night / Monday / Tuesday. To me this seems like an upgrade for the west country / inland areas of M4 corridor. Seems like SE is getting hampered by sea temps while "us inland" are being given the lower land temps? - Again as a newb I'm saying what I'm seeing from the 18z model output here at NW. I realise nobody gives the precip charts much notice at this range but the 18z seemed to bring in colder uppers for over here in the West/ Southern Central. Could this have anything to do with inversion cold from sitting under the high for a couple of days? Love all the input and all the usual suspects are very entertaining and educational - thank you for that!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just seen the ensembles and it seems clear the problem with the 18z (well relative problem lol!) and the reason why the low doesn't quite get far enough south to really give the country a massive severe cold outbreak is because there is no low pressure heading towards Portugal/France between 192-240hrs.

    Hi Kold,

    I'm not getting this - to me this seems exactly like a "massive severe cold outbreak" - as a model watcher newb can you tell me what I'm missing? I see this from the 18z at T180:

    (looking at 850hPa temps coming around the top of the low)

    http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

    Edit mid post -lol- I see the -10 850 recedes massively all of a sudden at 192 - is that what you mean?

    http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

    Very excited by all of this and (shame on me) been ramping already amongst friends and colleagues - one time it will pay off and now is as good as ever! (if not the best!)

    Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Goatherd - nice photos!!

    Coming down heavy and at last starting to settle on the wet roads in NE Bristol.

    Radar looks like a gap coming up. BUT I think its starting to stall on a SW-NE line through Wales and the PPN looks like its starting to "stretch East".

    Hoping that this will be more evident within the hour and this keeps Bristol within the PPN.

    I think we will see a stop as reported in somerset etc. but signs further south of a build further east which will keep us in the picture.

    Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    See the link....2am until 3pm. :lol: I can't get enough of this, I really can't. :o

    For so long, it's been the North and the East and the South East and now it's us! :lol:

    Please excuse my hysteria, chaps. :lol:

    Oh, hi, thunder butt! If you love snow, you've come to the right place. :o

    Please let it come this far North and West. Yet another day of radar watching :o :lol: :lol:

    These forecasts are so "down to the moment" If that main band had been a few more miles to the east last night we would have hardly got anything last night.

    Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Oh, yes! I have been for a walk over to our playing fields and there are so many people out having a great time. Lots of snowmen, giant snowballs, toboggans.........that's what it's all about, getting out and enjoying it. I don't like hearing people complain about the snow........I was up at 5.30am clearing my car and making a very steady drive to work. At that time, even the Badminton Road was slushy and that's an A road!

    I hope we get TONS more! :):)

    Right. Going out to make a snowman. I'm nearly 40 years old lol but this is bringing back memories of the 70's :lol:

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