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johnholmes

Retired Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by johnholmes

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    re the poster asking about Wengen

    This is the link to give the local forecast, slope information etc

    Jungfraujoch-Sphinx-Gletscher

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Slope data | jungfrau.ch

    WWW.JUNGFRAU.CH

    I skied there for about 32 years from 1988 staying at the Alpenrose. Wonderful area but don't expect massive snowfalls but enough most years to ski from the top of the Lauberhorn into the village, even try the Lauberhorn race track. Not sure if it is open prior to the race in early January. The scenery is really stunning, skiing also at the other two villages, Murren and Grindelwald, Murren is a steeper resort for runs. 

    Enjoy if you go; going to get mushy this next week. But most models are suggesting a burst of cold air again into Europe in the lead up to Xmas.

    If you would like to chat then drop me a line, happy to talk snow and Wengen!

     

    • Like 1

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well some 3 days since I posted the NOAA and ECMWF latest charts, the 6-10 day issue takes us into the Christmas period. I wonder if they suggest a cold one?

    NOAA 6-10 out to 23 December and it is showing a very strong westerly into the UK. This from a fairly marked trough off the west coast of north America, into a slight ridging east of this with the westerly over the rest of the chart into the UK. Heights around the Border region are on the lowish side at about 540 DM; (I might be 6DM out as the gradient is so strong making it hard to decipher the actual height). It also suggests, with a large temperature gradient in the east of n America, that there is a good chance of it being a windy and unsettled period in much of the UK. With fairly low heights then wintry type ppn from about the Peak District north on high ground and low ground in the more northern parts of Scotland would be probable. At this distance suggesting anything more detailed is a waste of time. The 8-14 shows 534 DM in the Border area so remaining on the cold side of normal and further disturbed weather likely. That is assuming these two charts are on the correct lines!

    Turning to ECMWF, period 20-24 December, and it shows a 500 mb trough just east of the UK, extending SE with a strengthening north of west flow which has backed slightly and also decreased a bit in strength by Xmas Eve. The 850 values are around zero C for much of the country most of the time; the colder air -5C is predicted to be largely well into Europe even in the centre of the extended trough.

    Both sets of chart do suggest colder than rather than above normal temperatures. So I’ll be watching how they both develop over the next  3-7 days!

    Looking just above my post I see Mike is in about the same place as me!

    00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4976321
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well some 3 days since I posted the NOAA and ECMWF latest charts, the 6-10 day issue takes us into the Christmas period. I wonder if they suggest a cold one?

    NOAA 6-10 out to 23 December and it is showing a very strong westerly into the UK. This from a fairly marked trough off the west coast of north America, into a slight ridging east of this with the westerly over the rest of the chart into the UK. Heights around the Border region are on the lowish side at about 540 DM; (I might be 6DM out as the gradient is so strong making it hard to decipher the actual height). It also suggests, with a large temperature gradient in the east of n America, that there is a good chance of it being a windy and unsettled period in much of the UK. With fairly low heights then wintry type ppn from about the Peak District north on high ground and low ground in the more northern parts of Scotland would be probable. At this distance suggesting anything more detailed is a waste of time. The 8-14 shows 534 DM in the Border area so remaining on the cold side of normal and further disturbed weather likely. That is assuming these two charts are on the correct lines!

    Turning to ECMWF, period 20-24 December, and it shows a 500 mb trough just east of the UK, extending SE with a strengthening north of west flow which has backed slightly and also decreased a bit in strength by Xmas Eve. The 850 values are around zero C for much of the country most of the time; the colder air -5C is predicted to be largely well into Europe even in the centre of the extended trough.

    Both sets of chart do suggest colder than rather than above normal temperatures. So I’ll be watching how they both develop over the next  3-7 days!

    Looking just above my post I see Mike is in about the same place as me!

    00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, E17boy said:

    IMG_0938.thumb.jpeg.f3cd3d1363b6b20777acab0f937194ba.jpegIMG_0937.png.1232f4b1335e023e17ba6a541a507ac9.png

    Dear High pressure

    I am writing with reference to your movement and travels in the coming days. As you know with the news that you are heading to our shore , I would just like to put a special request in for your direction of travell. Many coldies like myself are waiting and watching you as this will have huge future impacts as to where our goods come from in the coming days.

    We have many wintry products including ice, severe cold and heavy snow that are in huge demand by the coldie market here in the uk. Our main suppliers East wind in located in Siberia and NE wind in Scandinavia need a good transport infrastructure  in order to send these products here.

    With all this in mind your role in where you sit will be very important. It is advised that if you could possibly set up base in Scandinavia or Greenland this will open the way to receive our goods here in time for a good Christmas present for our coldies. Your base will be secure and we would like this to be a long term setup as we have only started our sales season which we hope this will be good for the coming next 3 months. 
     

    I very much hope you will look into my request with great consideration and fulfill my desire. I look forward to continuation of our relationship in the coming days. My staff GFS, ECM, CFS, UKMO and the Pub run will all be updating me daily on your movement.

    Thank you again

    Kind regards

     Lovely post, so good to have a bit of humour in here but still get the coldie wish across
     

     

    Lovely to get the coldie message across in such a light hearted

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the NOAA 6-14 day charts and no signal at all for a change to a general westerly upper flow, similar on the ECMWF, time scale on that similar to the NOAA 6-10. Little showing way out west to suggest any change just yet

     


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4970389
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

    Nick's Winter outlook is now on the website. A lot of effort and research has gone into this, with perhaps the best setting of falling snow last week whilst it was finished off. 

    winter2324-square.jpg

    favicon.ico Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2023/2024 | Netweather.tv

    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
    Long range weather forecast for the UK - Winter 2023/2024. Will it be a cold winter?

     

    Wow what a huge task this is, it seems to get larger each year as the knowledge increases. Fantastic Job Nick-thank you. It seems a long time since you first arrived and we used GFS 4x outputs to try and do a daily forecast!

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