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Posts posted by johnholmes
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hello
A nice afternoon after a dull and damp start to the day. Temp topped out at 12.9C, currently 12.4C, and no wind
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morning
Dull with rain earlier and more on the way looking at the radar picture. Temp of 10C. pretty boring really.
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Hi
October here was much wetter than normal; 65.9mm compared to 45.4mm(long term average).
The mean temperature was only just above average at 10.8C(10.5C)
Absolute max was 17.6C on 5th with the coldest day 9.2C on 15th. The coldest night was 2.4C on 19th with just 2 ground frosts and no air frost.
This is 12th consecutive month with temps above normal.
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morning
Hardly the correct description for the weather! Still raining with a light S'ly wind and a temperature of 10.6C
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Hi
I am away this next weekend so will start the next check using the 12Z on Sunday 31st October for T+168 hours(7 days), which takes us to the 7th November. Currently GFS shows a large High covering the whole UK with central pressure >1030, centre just off SW Scotland.
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morning
Min last night was 2.6C with a touch of ground frost and some fog for a short time. Now overcast with a slight SSE'ly breeze developing.
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Hello
Well here goes with the first issue:
The forecast run at 12Z(T+168) gave a dumbell type low, with the main centre off NW Ireland below 990mb, this extended into a low in the North Of the North Sea of 995mb with a slackish WSW flow over England and Wales, but stronger over Eire.
By the 12Z run Tuesday 19 October the low centre was <995Mb and approximately 500 miles SW of Eire with a slack SW'ly over much of the UK.
The 12Z run On the next day showed a similar scenario.
By 12Z on Thursday 21 October it had deppened the low to <985mb, slightly further NE and with a secondary centre West of Ireland. A light to moderate W to SW flow covered most of the UK.
I was away from mid Friday until mid Monday so only saw the following:
00Z on Friday was totally different, it had the low off Eastern Scotland, centre<990mb with a ridge over SW Eire and a strong NW'ly flow over most of the UK.
By Monday 12Z it had reverted back to a similar story to that of 12Z on Thursday.
Now to the actual today 12Z Tuesday 26 October 2004:- Low 982 at 46.5N and 20W with a slack SW'ly flow over much of the UK, with a secondary low of 995 with associated fronts over SW Eire.
Now, its easy to be critical, but I would love to be as accurate as that out at T+168. In my experience GFS does handle these patterns quite well. Its the blocking situations it has trouble with more than about T+84?
To the 'mods'; is there any way these subjective treatments can be stored for any of us to be able to look at them at a later date please?
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Hi again
Thanks for that Paul I'll try and issue this first one early this evening. The next one I will try and follow will be the T+168 prog for 12Z today.
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Hi everyone
For some time I have thought that a realistic assessment of GFS 12Z surface /500mb products would be a good idea.Say to start from 7 days and run down each 24 hour output at 12Z From it we could all learn about how accurate, or otherwise, these products are in different weather scenarios.
To start I have been checking the 12Z runs from 18th October for today, Tuesday 26th October to see how each run compared to the previous one and, ultimately, how these compared to the actual for 12Z 26th October.
Unfortunately I forgot to store the http code for each run so you will have to bear with my assessment but in future, if it seems those of you out there are interested I would include those as well as my assesment.
Perhaps, before I put the first one on the Forum you could give me some feedback? this being especially true of the 'Mods'
I'll put my ideas of this run out early this evening unless there is a deafening silence!
regards
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morning
Quite bright and dry at the moment with lightish SW winds. Clouds thickening and increasing from the SW. Temp 10.2C with a min only down to 8.2C
jh
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morning
Hardly a cloud in the sky with a fresh WSW'ly wind. Temp is now 7.1C after being very mild all night, not had much rain either.
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glug glug!
Still raining, already had 10mm of rain since 5am this morning, temp 10C with a light NE'ly wind. Much more rain and my fish will have all the garden to swim in!
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morning all
cloudy, with a really pink sunrise a little earlier, but no wind with temp now at 5C. Had the coldest night since 20th April with a touch of ground frost; the first this autumn. Min temp was 2.4C
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hello
Quite a nice morning after yet more rain overnight, sunny spells and a current temp of 9.5C
jh
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from Donny
Been a cloudy day, and cool with rain at times from mid-day. Cureently dry but it looks as if it may rain again before long. Max temp, is now, a staggering 9.3C !!
jh
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hi
A foggy damp morning. It had become foggy before midnight after a very wet afternoon into the evning. Min overnight was 5.3C.
jh
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hello
Now going into fog!
jh
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Hi
I certainly spoke too soon about the trough being through; no sooner had I posted than it started again; a total of 14mm since it started this afternoon, although it does appear to have finally given up.Looking at the Met Office radar that rain band is now East of here.
jh
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Hi
Well quite an active trough is just about clearing here now, still some lightish rain falling. About 8mm fell with a temp drop of around 4C during the passage of the trough with a max rainfall rate around 1535 of 77mm per hour! Thankfully that only burst only lasted about 3-4 minutes.
jh
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Morning
Lovely morning here as the frontal cloud clears away East. 3.8mm of rain from yesterday evening to the early hours of this morning. Min temp at 0835 with 8.3C,up to 9.2C now.
jh
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from sunny donny!!
Just started raining after some sharp drizzle this morning; and a 'high', if that is the right word, of 12.4C and a light SSE'ly wind.
jh
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doncaster=
variable cloud with some sunny spells during the day but a cool wind from the east or SE making it feel colder than the 12C the thermometer shows.
jh
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from Doncaster
A cloudy start to the day with a very light easterly wind and an overnight min of 8.8C
jh
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ended up a cloudy afternoon with a cool breeze from the east; current temp of 11.3C with a max of 13.8C
jh
Our younger days - Winter memories......
in Historic Weather
Posted
Hi
I'm embarrassed by all those who obviously were only tiny tots when I had been working for years, so best I not reveal my best winters!