If Wishes made Weather
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Looks to be a band of slightly heavier snowfall running north south through the region ATM. Someone on London thread suggesting 'blizzard'. I wonder what would happen were to actually get a blizzard one day! -
Light powder snow all morning in Stortford. Guessing about 4 cm - roughly half of what is forcasted once it ends. Looks to be heavier stuff in northern France at the moment which I presume is coming north. Not dramatic weather, but gentle continuous snowfall.
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Looks like a quiet day on the roads in Amiens. Steady light snowfall in Stortford giving 2 cm covering now.
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Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts
If Wishes made Weather replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have read through the comments in the last MOD which seem, to put it mildly, a little heated. Of course, it seems that many posters have good points, and very often seem to be saying the same things (roughly). What I have noted on this thread and others though is: 1 - Steve has a point: so far it would appear that we are not very far off an average sort of January in terms of snow days. Of course number of snow days does not equate to depth of snow. I understand the west country and parts of Wales to have depths that are unusual for local norms. 2 - The Met Office putting warnings out for what is standard winter weather (10cm snow and temps of -5) is, IMO silly. Its really quite normal and we should be able to deal with it. Perhaps it is just an expression of the recent run of very Atlantic driven winters. I cannot imagine the German MetO equivalent putting out a warning for anything like this - even for western areas which are temperate and Atlantic dominated. 3 - Almost everyone on the MOD thread (and I include myself) would like to see something more substantial in terms of winter weather. A really good storm that drops 30cm powder show across all of Southern England for example. The record books show this sort of feature has occurred. I'm not sure if people's expectations and desires derive from having more experience of continental weather over the past few years through travel and media? But note, its the same in summer. People largely seem to enjoy, and to a degree now expect, weather that is warm enough to live a bit out in the garden evenings (and when its good for breakfast as well) without multiple layers of clothing. 4 - I am wholly unqualified to comment, but perhaps Ian has a point, that really deeper and more sustained cold is harder to achieve for whatever reason. Similarly, its a long time since we had a really good summer. 5 - Models. For reasons I do not understand, the models often show in F1 weather features that get very much toned down once the actual day approaches. This raises expectation and then disappoints time and again. Looking at tonights ludicrous 18z dartboard low its good that these things are toned down, but why are they modeled at all? 6 - Like it or not our knowledge of atmospheric science (trop and strat) is still far too immature to really allow us to understand and predict except in terms of possibilities and probabilities. Time and again this seems to be forgotten by posters who use language that is far more certain and immodest than the science lying behind it. -
Steady light snow for a couple of hours in Stortford just under a sort of streamer.
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I have been looking into the radar glass darkly and I'm not really sure which direction it is coming from. Andrewsfield is currently registering easterly winds, but the PPN bands seem to be moving more in a NE direction. I'd be interested to know what has caused the dry hole over our area this afternoon
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Stortford snow shield remains fully functional.
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Unfortunately I don't have a micrometer though to measure it. I think now for our area its more about Sunday nights possibility. On the basis that today we have had 10% of the NAE prediction, I'm going to go with 1 cm new snow for Sunday night
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Sure - the METO have Stortford down for 3 hrs heavy snow around 18.00 hrs tonight, and then 6 hrs heavy snow overnight, and light snow all day tomorrow. Where they see this coming from I have no idea
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Well if its like this summer gone, I'm not that sure ...
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Well ... er ... METOFFICE site showing HEAVY SNOW for Bishops Stortford around 18.00 this evening and then 6 hrs more heavy snow overnight and light snow all day tomorrow, and almost all day Sunday - but from what is this supposed to come. Have they bought a job lot of snow symbols and they need to get rid of them?
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-2 in Stortford with very light snow. Its good to see the front approaching from the west with a clearly defined front edge.
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So my punt for Bishops Stortford out to 48hrs is 10cm snow.
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Again, save for the GFS in FI, very good cold output this morning from all of the models. In particular the UKMO, GEM, ECM put two slider lows through with stronger easterlys on the northern flanks. HP moving over to the north or NE of UK.
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London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>
If Wishes made Weather replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Its now -8c in Stortford. -
And its -8c in Stortford
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... and bearing in mind that the snow will be falling onto frozen dry ground so we don't need a couple of hours before it starts to stick which is good. On a side point, in Germany I once experienced a rain to snow event that left circa 20cm snow stuck to a layer of ice. Hell of a job cleaning the pavement. Ended up chiseling it off (in Germany the householder is responsible for clearing the footpath in front of his/her property).
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Well looking at the updated FAX charts, and the metoffice own website, they are showing a decaying front kicking around the region on Friday late, Saturday and into Sunday giving light show for 24hrs. If that falls at just 1mm per hour PPN, then over that could just land us with 24 cm of snow, even at half that its reasonably respectable surely for the first shot even if we aren't into the blizzard thing. Nevertheless, my guess is transport will be up the spout for a while so a bit of extra shopping tomorrow before the fun and games start.
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You mean its colder?
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And just for East Herts/Essex/Cambridgeshire triple point currently: Sawbridgeworth is -7c Stansted is -6c Saffron Walden at -10c.
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If I'm reading the ECM right - and the UKMO, and they verify, its not likely that we will be winging about possibly too little snow for long.
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Apparently -4 in Stortford this morning.
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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.
If Wishes made Weather replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just seen the 96hr FAX. Just unreal with an occlusion lying across the country (PPN presumably enhanced all along it) which has travelled north to get so far. Presumably as the low off Wales continues to travel SE it will pull this occlusion back ? -
There is (I think now possibly was) one presenter on the TV in Germany who is quite famous for not having any formal meteorological training called Claudia Kleinert. Type into youtube. She was one of the team at meteomedia.de which is an independent firm founded and run by a guy called Jorg Kachelmann. This firm has over 1200 of their own weatherstations throughout Germany and also does the national and regional forecasts and moderation for TV (equivalent of the BBC called ARD). The German met-office doesn't do these at all.
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IF - and that is a major IF - this is right perhaps we are best understanding the UK as a bit like the hub of a wheel with slider lows moving across to the south and counterbalanced with the Scandi high in the north relocating further west - perhaps as far as Iceland or Greenland. That would then leave the UK into NE air masses and the cold that would entail. It is something like this that the BOM has shown as possible.