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If Wishes made Weather

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Everything posted by If Wishes made Weather

  1. If Wishes made Weather
    I think this is just the MetO just sort of preparing well ahead of time and trying to touch all bases. As SK up the road notes, this will pull in winds from the SE, low Dew Points, cold and over water so we may manage to get convective snow, and not just have to rely on frontal PPN. That is, IF it happens.
  2. If Wishes made Weather
    I would suggest that its really too early to tell as it depends upon the angle of attack - dont forget that we will be in a SE wind, possible almost gale with low heights which will be picking up moisture over the North Sea anyway.
  3. If Wishes made Weather
    Maybe I'm just a suspicious mind, but may I suggest that the MetO have already started to make noises about the possibility of snow Friday onwards? It is being generally indicated (albeit as light snow) on the MetO site for many places Friday, and I see that Ms Dolan has gone out to Friday on the graphic there on the forecast. Perhaps it means that they suspect something serious could be underway, and are preparing us already as well as covering themselves against a 'we were not adequately warned' allegation? One for conspiracy theorists here I know.
  4. If Wishes made Weather
    Sounds good to me. Thanks
  5. If Wishes made Weather
    I thought the idea was that with the wrap around on the low pressure system we would see a couple of CM snow thought. Is this now old hat?
  6. If Wishes made Weather
    This IMHO would be where the fun woudl start - transfer of the Scandi heights to Greenland. Sort of as good as it gets this.
  7. If Wishes made Weather
    Tiny bit of snow in Stortford falling now.
  8. If Wishes made Weather
    This is correct I think. The idea generally - to send more energy south rather than north from the North American continent is shown in a couple of the Operation runs - and in several of the parallel runs, but as far as I can see, nothing as extreme as the UKMO GM run. Looking though again at all the models today, and the uncertainty which does seem to fire up some interesting ideas at times in FI and the semi-reliable, and then drop them, I am starting to wonder if this winter will be one that is generally cool, or perhaps cold when looked at statistically, but rather a placid one (save for the shocking flooding in the SW). Realistically, we are now seeing ideas running out to the end of the month leaving 1/3 of the winter left only to produce something less tame.
  9. If Wishes made Weather
    Updated UKMO FAX for 120, while nothing like as extreme as the raw computer output is of interest though as it seem to poise a low pressure system for a possible undercut - but it looks like it may go too far south more towards Biscay.
  10. If Wishes made Weather
    Never seen this - snow approaching the west Irish coast from the Atlantic!
  11. If Wishes made Weather
    By 156 the whole bit of the Candian vortex is tanking off over the Atlantic with - and I think that I am reading this right - sub 490 air, and presumably pressure to make your ears bleed.
  12. If Wishes made Weather
    Looks like stalling, just, but the heights in mid Atlantic are decaying al little perhaps giving a little room for it to go through. One way or another though all models are showing a fierce depression for Friday or so. Its just they dont know where to put it.
  13. If Wishes made Weather
    Quite an amusing run from the GFS at circa 102 onwards with the UK and Ireland being squeezed by approaching air masses. Minus 8 uppers from the East and minus 4 from the West. The easterly wins slightly.
  14. If Wishes made Weather
    Just noticed that the updated T72 fax (sorry cannot copy) shows the mdd Atlantic small low that eventually develops into the SW that undercuts, so it would seem that they are reasonably confident of the computer generation up to that point.
  15. If Wishes made Weather
    ECM at 120 builds the high pressure system into Scandi far more and brings it far more south. It is almost meeting up with higher pressure mid Atlantic blocking an undercut
  16. If Wishes made Weather
    Looking through the T48 charts and the deep low pressure system that is modeled to develop and move SE along the north Canadian coast towards Newfoundland. It would appear that the GFS has this system modeled at the lowest pressure (970mb) and thus shows the most energy available. UKMO is showing 980mb and the ECM 975. Small differences, but it would seem that these small differences in available energy are what enable the undercut, which is, as previously noted, shown on about 30% of the GFES possibilities in one form or another.
  17. If Wishes made Weather
    Think that they would be burning the midnight oil - and handing out the Asprin - in Exeter if those charts came to fruition
  18. If Wishes made Weather
    Really its non too shabby and although the subsequent charts out to 138 are nothing like as extreme as the UKMO (what could be?) they retain the theme: Scandi heights, easterly most strong across the south and low enough heights in the flow for instability. Bitterly cold all the time.
  19. If Wishes made Weather
    GEM at 120 isnt a million miles away from the UKMO with a corridor of low heights building from Iceland through to Italy with heights in Scandi. It would allow for an undercut
  20. If Wishes made Weather
    Presumably verification chances of the UKMO at 5 days are in the 1% area? Interesting to see though that this is a modeled possibility no matter how remote.
  21. If Wishes made Weather
    Mega undercut on the UKMO at 120 - close down Britain thing going on there.
  22. If Wishes made Weather
    I know what you mean - the easterly charts always collapse before the reliable one way or another. I would just like to see a real blizzard across my part of the world (the sort of thing that drops half a meter of snow over 12 hrs as I remember as a child), but there is nothing on any charts showing anything like this at all.
  23. If Wishes made Weather
    Anyone any idea what the criteria is for 'disruptive snow'. Sounds very like dumbed down language unless it means something a certain amount over a certain time period? Or is it anti-social snow?
  24. If Wishes made Weather
    I find it better to sort of see where the weather is coming from as to which thread its best to look into. For example, if we are getting weather from the NW direction, its not a bad idea to see what the members in the East Midlands are seeing. From the East, we are in the EA thread and when weather is coming in from the South, best to look to the London thread as to what is coming.
  25. If Wishes made Weather
    Just for clarity - this would cause COBRA to be sitting if it were London
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