johnwirral

Bright sunshine and a hard frost on the wirral coast, hit fog and gloom around e port on the way to work.Sunny Wirral cam

Joe laminate floor on accuweather originally wrote. "For ALL the areas that had temps more than 1C below normal in December, the possible exception Scandinavia, YES. Sometimes patterns like what we went through are like slingshots, you pull the slingshot back then it lets go and flies the other way" He's now Backtracked quote "HOORAY.. I DO SEE SOME COLD AIR COMING BACK" and is going for cold. so may be all is not lost....

John, Typically as an total amateur I look for the 528 dam line to make a guess about the precipitation type. On the forecasted breakdown/battleground event would this be less relevant due to the presence of colder low lying air?

Thanks for the reply, I suppose its easier to model the more static air masses in the centre of continents, than the ebb and flow around the edges for rare conditions that only happen a few times over decades.

Thanks for putting that together, can't say I understand the maths, but as a computer programer the old saying is garbage in garbage out. Is it difficult to measure the density of these cold air masses, and is this one of the drivers of the current uncertainty of the models?

Looks great but can you trust the gfs....

What's the ECM, at 240 (and earlier) showing. Is it snow from a north westerly, or rain?

What's the big deal about easterlies? The 18z GFS shows a fantasy island snowfest, for the whole country, dropping down from the North. From past memory big Siberian easterlies bring cold sunny weather to most areas and a few snow showers to the East. A northerly, like the one that brought the last lot of snow will do fine for me and most of the country not just a few favoured areas.

Snow in Warrington, not sticking so far

Normally just lurk around on here but there seems to be a lot of winging about the inconstancy of the models In my opinion they all do a good job considering the complexity of the task assigned to them, modelling the weather two weeks in advance across the surface of the globe!!! Many of the more experienced and professional posters have mentioned that we are in a knife edge situation, this must mean that small changes of input data into the models will produce dramatic changes further downstream. At least the GFS make all their data freely available, warts and all, something that the met office are probably unwilling to do, as people seem to read long range forecasts as gospel and are disappointed when the weather they are hoping for does not arrive. I can imagine the press every time the met office predicted extreme weather and it did not turn up.. As to what will happen next, I've not got the skills to say, but I would not be upset if a Siberian easterly was not on the cards, from past experience in my part of the world they tend to deliver clear sunny weather with biting winds. I would rather have the sort of Northerly setup that delivered the last lot of snow. Just a hunch but this winter has delivered, and from all the signals there may be a sting in the tail.

Rain here in West Kirby, as usual snow deflectors are set to max. Hilbre Island showing 1.8c. Hilbre Weather

Having a cigarette in the back garden (1:00am)with the Missus, just seen what looked like a fire ball from the Wirral heading north, visible through the clouds. Very bright never seen anything like it. Any other sightings? This is not a Halloween hoax.

Don't know what's happening Heswall but it's -0.6 in West Kirby and the Weather station on Hilbre Island is showing -1.4. Still very light snow here. Looks like there's some more coming in around Hull, will it make it across tonight?

Light snow here in West Kirby, 1m ASL, sticking on the cars and the road. Looks like there's some more on the way on the Radar.