mezzacyclone

Any thoughts of this working down in the short term (tonights diurnal peak?) SB? est sustained 35kn surface estimate at 21.300N 65.500W just a shame no LLC to match the impressive misleading cirrus outflow? Nothing much from the monsoon troughs out to mid-aug according to the latest model runs so will this be our last focus for the Atlantic & GOM for a while?

(the recon data`s coming through patchy at the mo? in terms of time sequence?) but mission 2 into Dorian (or what was) has no reports of any W winds on the SW sweep of the disturbance thus far 180 miles N of PR headed NE into centre. maybe by the end of the week we will be able to draw a line under it but who knows although the odds are stacked against Dorian making another comeback akin to Elvis?

so the rollercoaster that is/was (cycle until end) Dorian continues, Borderline TS (AGAIN!?) : sustained est surface winds 38mph 21.283N 62.233W (200 miles NE of British virg isles,) Noticed today how convection has been maintained where previous daytimes have seen severe loss of its structure? repeat what I`ve mused on about all along, an amazing little feature,,,

Well the last advisory is Dorians post-mortem but it had me puzzled throughout its lifespan although I`d chuckle to myself if a new invest turned up somewhere in the N caribbean sea next week? Good spot fellas with the MLC seperation from lower indicating early signs of demise but its mighty interesting trying to monitor dry and stable air and how it interacts with these small systems in terms of preventing vertical stacking et-al, or is/was that a sole retribute of the shear that this cyclone fought as I can`t recall many strong values?

Dorian has commonality with our Winter watchers who experience the high and low rollecoaster rides as although it looked done last night then recent improving convection has reformed somewhat and ASCAT passes still give evidence to maintain TS structure with 40kn winds. After the mid and lower separation mentioned above yesterday he was in tatters but popcorn convection boomed just after mid night and has clearly put Dorian back in the fore IMO so a couple more advisories at least? Disputed shear levels ahead as original high forecasts are now lowering? With favorable sst`s on the home run and the last dry air has been rolled in then I think Dorian will prosper but i guess no one has absolute proof of his longevity?

Plagued by the Dry air clearly visible and really struggling after initial signs of a decent system? Overall consensus that degeneration into a wave now favored?

,Has had impressive convection from the outset and the current wedge of dry air to the NW is diminishing by the hour, the earlier "nearly closed low level eye" was interesting, as is the proximity of warmer sst`s (entering higher sst`s very soon) AND disputed SWerly shear forecasts in its path on approaching 60W Dorian is a very interesting little storm and has every chance of packing more of a punch than Chantal with heightening concerns for the eastern seaboard, we`ll just have to follow the US conus surface maps for any troughs or shortwaves (lack of?) and Bermudan ridging to try seeing where this goes, IF it progresses? which looks more and more likely, something fun to monitor over the weekend

GFS have chopped and changed plotting development of waves south of cape verde in recent days but NHC have just heightened an observation from 10% to 30% (can`t recall seeing an obs so far East @ 20° W longtde?) and declared Inv 98L Receiving lots of publicity already but may well diminish in the Mid-Atl in days ahead but has every chance at organising & strengthening (TS Dorian?) as it crosses the 80° Lon/lesser ant position, moreso if it adapts a low trajectory (current steering renders this unlikely) and low pace to avoid the brunt of taking in the full SAL plume and an upper lev low on the southern flank of the mid atl ridge around 20lat 40-50long but it has good convection to start with and no strong shear with a small AC currently over/near it so something to follow, but CMC, (regular over forecasting model), go with a closed low as early as later tomorrow/early weds likely down to current size, conv and favorable conditions before the ride becomes more tricky mid atl with raised shear forecast, borderline 24-25C ssts and inhibitors as above?

there was close to 60mph est surface winds E of St lucia & Martinique but NHC remain slightly "bearish" with it although they have upped the anti slightly by keeping this a TS where previously they predicted lowering to TD upon NW approach to the Bahamas, I assume the DR/Hispaniola land interaction then strong SW shear their factors? I guess we`ll have to monitor the Bermuda sub-trop ridge and ULL over FL to see how Chantal fairs but lack of a clearly defined circulation (despite closing off briefly yesterday) and relatively high central pressures indicate weakness and therefore favoring another rain deluge and little more but there is talked about re-strengthening off the Carolina`s later in the weekend "IF" a trough backs of West out of SouthEast US over to TX & NW GOM and the Bermuda ridge retrogrades, which it has been attempting for many weeks, then this could have a sting in the tail but a pre-cursor for the early beginning of the Cape Verde season?

Yup, curtains for Erick as last advisory issued, succumbed to the CA current & NPG over 20° thereabouts SST`s.

Well it looks like the GOM disturbance aka Inv 94L is nothing more than a basic storm and rain event as the surface trough axis has pushed ahead NW of the convective mass with a southerly windflow sending it all for a "welcome" downpour for TX & Lou with minor attempts at forming Low centres and circulation failing to transpire fully on a few occasions thus far. 95L however is looking quite a visible feature 900 miles SW of cape verde with brief images of possible banding visible on its SE periphery but its not just a fast transit & closeby prominent SAL that are most likely to hold it back but ever increasing proximity to the low level strong Easterly trade winds that make any circulation more difficult the more it gains in latitude, "IF" this keeps further south, not moving much further North on its 8-15° Lat path until it leaves the Atlantic, then it may have a better chance at TD and more once it slows down after the less antiles? NHC are keen on this in hindsight and currently have it on "Orange" 30% so a watch is on but the Mid-July activity for developments East of the Caribbean are most definitely on target and 95l is merely the beginning. What`s equally intriguing is the timing of these waves and relative nearby TUTT & ULL`s and such in wether they lay victim to diminishing any chances of enhancing thunderstorms by "shredding" them or the opposite by aiding waves if their further away by clearing out upper diverging air well ahead of any tropical wave?

I hold mr Cowan in high regards SB in his simple ethical opinions with his blog so it will be very interesting to follow the mid July (14th 15th thereabouts) promising wave West of cape verde, Great info on the current high trades and the convergence aloft between the upper lows activity holding back GOM developments but bringing heavy precip to parts of FL AL & Georgia, Funnily enough the models were keen on BOC activity in anticipation of the trough clearing NW out of the Gulf along with the Bermuda ridge retrograding Westward but although a low may hook out of the yucatan area and curve northward it favors nothing more than a minimal vorticity low for welcome rain east of mobile bay for southern TX?,,,,but bits to keep a lookout for and heightened potential whenever MJO`s in 1-2. early days

,,,and plotted <30km with development from the SW Mexican shore alongside the states of Michoacan & Colima around Manzanillo City thus heightening to current 70% cyclone formation?

Messy enough for a "special" (22:05 UTC) Update SB? The Western most system has become an elongated upper trough and forecasts to merge with the more progressive Eastern disturbance through Monday? Looks to be full of energy & improving by the hour to me? 21:45 UTC

CMC are really cranking up the current EPAC 94E development as shear lowers and conditions improve for intensity over the weekend but GFS keep hinting on a caribbean development and conditions are not exactly benign at the moment (would not rule out NHC plotting a new Invest tomorrow dependant on convergence increasing with a current disturbance SW of the Bahamas) with shear forecasts lowering by the day so theirs lots of interest about and plenty to monitor.

Last Advisory Issued prior to dissipation later today/tonight but up to 10" of rainfall was the biggest headliner the 2nd named storm of the season was ever going to make due to it`s path (contrary to SB`s wishes ) but its looking ominous for the sucessors Chantal & co.?

Former TD2, Having already rejuvanated over the Bay of Campeche, has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry and is looking organised with 45mph surface est winds with ongoing recon obs (currently approaching estimate centre here from SW) and ESP readings of 1005mb.

Showing signs of a remnant Low now BUT appears to have taken slightly more veer so maybe more time of the BOC now? We`ll see what it does later tomorrow but Recon cancelled again today, although I don`t think we can totally strike this system off altogether in what is a hotspot for regeneration soon as it clears the state of Campeche and utilises the warm GOM waters.

Great, I`m just off out with the dogs then it`s a dram in the glass for the 10pm hunter aircraft recon show! Starting out focusing on the area 80miles due E off the Belize coast: C. 17/1700Z D. 17.0N 87.0W Be interesting what the obs are but TD2 has between 200 & 350 mile landtrack before entering the BOC so lay ya bets for a TS or not? woops. Recon mission aborted for today! Bay of Campeche recon sched Tues & Weds: C. 18/1645Z D. 19.0N 92.5W C. 19/0800Z D. 19.5N 94.5W

Iv`e got around a hundred bookmarks? SB all on tropical info which puts me in a real muddle most of the time but I`ll have a recce and see as i`m sure I found some when trawling? but meantime thanks to a Trop Wave moving fully through the Caribbean sea then, 93L anyone? But if it has a go at a TD then its got its work cut out with minimal sea track over the gulf of Honduras before landfall over Belize then maybe a little more time over the southern most Bay of Campeche as it slows forward speed but its running up against the ULT resident in the area causing it to look more impressive than it actually is with the visible outflow simply provided predominantly by the troughs SE flank causing SW winds on the waves NW edge. (still with me I hope?) So most likely a big rain maker for Mexico where it might? fizzle out altogether courtesy of the strong TX ridge. ECM hooks the MJO into region 1 (&2) sharply for the first third of July so we`ll see then if anything can hop on the bus and take advantage but prior to that maybe a EPAC system during phase 8 toward the end of June? But we have something to keep an eye on full of a few "If`s" and "But`s" which ain`t bad for June

with a little hindsight from accuweathers SB? (16,8,4) Any thoughts on NCEP models predicting a development of at least an invest around the far W caribbean sea, Yucatan and Bay of Campeche region coinciding with the MJO timing you stated? The MDR is currently under a vast SAL plume, that may have nothing to do with the previously mentioned area favored for development? but decreasing GOM shear values support the models although a continuous ridge over the southern states looks to keep any TS formation transitting Northwards? As a matter of interest in your prediction: can you decipher if any ENSO neutral state lead you to conclude your numbers? I guess its only a matter of time too that those E Atlantic SST high anomolies propogate westwards foreboding the beginning of numerous cape verde disturbances but the last thing anyone wants in another 2005.

Kind of relation to the 2 in the post above (daily star & express) but I am still yet to come across 1 single domestic tabloid that puts across something other than jibberish in a very low level of intelligent meaning? The rest of the modern advanced world, (ok i`m mentioning N America as an example but many other countries media are as good) make technical matters come across much easier yet with very high professional detail. I guess the massive majority of our own population simply don`t take the weather as serious as other places & populations do therefore this is reflected in our newspapers & other media?

It looks like the STJ is keeping 92l well in check right now along with very high shear (50kn?) but should the environment turn more favorable for development then the majority of the model tracks look dangerous skirting NE just off the lesser ants & Turks before going through the Bahamas for a SE (Miami?) FL landfall? Daylight circulation obs coming along now to decide if monitoring will continue or not. (sorry sb, just caught your post after/during i scribbled this one lol)

It`s all go! Invest 92L has a closed surface circulation according to noaa OceanSAT 25km wind obs over the 12N 44W region. The only problem for development is that up to 44kn shear is forecast ahead with nothing <22kn in the next 120hrs? SB`s MJO phase notion (In the TS Andrea thread) may well be valid in terms of the early active start to the season? Will keep an eye on those Shear values and the susceptibility to change as an upper level trough is not evident West of its path (as far as I can see?) so I cannot determine why those values are so high but welcome someone "enlightening" me? ;o)

Still deepening with a 998mb extrapolated pressure reading & high chances of 55-60kn FL winds so the VDM will be interesting in wether or not the max wind speed probability forecast will give Andrea a >6% cat1 chance? But a near certainty of staying TS due to the aforementioned dry air mass to her west? Off to work