mezzacyclone

Your right SB, it was post-Barbara 90L > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/atl/201306012342/index.php?basin=atl&current_issuance=201306012342

(I`m positive their was a brief 0% on an update for 91L the other day, but after release it was quickly re-certified with a 10%)Amazing how it`s coped with all the dry air?

NHC to issue an advisory on Tropical Storm Andrea within the next hour based on a "well defined circulation" as per Recon. (NHC) Amazing turnaround from initial 0% forecasts of formation?

Hasn`t shear waned a little from stronger earlier? evidence of an LLC? 325miles SW of Tampa surrounding 25.14Lat -86.65Lon area on the current AF303 recon run, 50mph FL level winds, enough for Andrea on the next adv SS?

,,,and 91 looks a trifle more interesting than its predecessor?

So on the 1st official day of the season at least somethings going off but generally speaking 90L is a mess? NHC has a 10% chance of a TC out of the post-Barbara system but intense rainfall is projected with merging of developing thunderstorm activity over W carib to head for Western Cuba & eventual SW Fl but Jeff masters has it summarised in this afternoons blog. (at the bottom of his Tornado feature)

(Did they become windblown HP?,We had to stop (tree)work Friday due to gusts and unsafe poplars we were attempting to fell in a tight spot?)Drab and damp but radar indicates heavier pulses over EMids heading NW?i just hope this week does not turn out to be our best shot at any stormy conditions come the next few weeks before solar maxima etc.?

Good stuff coast, with lots to digest,All eyes on the ITCZ sooner than normal this year then? with anticipation of valued input via cohorts IceB, SS, SB, karyo etc?But I cant help but feel that some intervention from mankind may purposely be altering the intensity and size of some of these TS's-pre 'Canes? as recent Hurricanes, Irene a prime example, showed anomolous evolution apparently not brought on by the usual atmospheric hurricane inhibitors? (vert shear, dry air etc.) yet overall size and area covered appeared(s) larger than previous 'canes?Is their a legitimate case for intensity being decreased, at cost of area being increased, purely a natural coincedence? and therefore a simple matter of one of many symptoms differing in the overall setup?Looking forward to the season, but I guess I would not be saying that If I were a resident who had to "know the cone"? :o/

Insane 60-75deg lat blocking in terms of longevity & strength but with AO on the rise are we seeing a corner turned for the easter period? "Peoples Judean Front" (my lil PFJ acronym) desperately trying for its Northward migration but still saying "no por favor".

Well that was a quick 10 years! Congrats Paul but I don't think i'm 10 years wiser? I just wish "mr crazysnowfanzman" posted a praise lol

*Note to self* GFS developing southern scandinavian cyclone fantasy plotted <72hrs transitting S/SW now filling and headed SE. Global Folly System. Dry dry dry.

13:07 looking at a line SSW from Batley to Glossop,, copy that -1.7c dew point pit?

We used to go up Redmires through lodge moor a lot and around western bank it was always raining then just on the bend/rise to crosspool it was sleet then all snow once past sandygate,,,,couple of hundred ft makes all the difference,,,

update? maybe more intensity for us in SYorks aligned more from the Irish sea/Lancs coast? Favoring rain or sleet etc. below 400-600ft? Dosnt feel particularly cold to me?

Tue 29th 11am - weather permitting :/

Meteosat 5min updates showing the band has more or less ceased it's current NE movement? Anyone with net-extra see this? Roughly seeing/showing ppn line from WLancs SEwards down to Derby Northampton to WLondon,,,

Any members on the coast with anything to report?

Iv`e yet to see energy to the North wane? Observed constant Svaalbard cyclonic activity throughout but it`s definitely confounding times chart/model-wise? I`m retaining initial thoughts that this is slightly overplayed due to the overall pattern (aforementioned Svaalbard E greenland and Bering seas) and no Siberian transit?

Svaalbard Low`s throughout? Far from convinced over this cold spell,,,,but my roof let`s more daylight in than a greenhouse so can`t say I want a dump

Those were the days, along with "mr crazysnowfansman"

NTWICAS Now Thats What I Call A Storm! Amazing pics of a true beauty of nature, been a while since anything this impressive SS? 180kn+ gusts, 20 naut mile wide eye, 50ft waves, incredible stuff but the pics speaks for themselves. I assume you`ll acquire a new avatar soon SS

these FLW`s are at 4700ft Ice, Will/Can NHC take those on face value for a Cat1 given the est surface winds are lesser?

here we are, 73kn (83.9mph) FLW 30 sec. N25.66 W86.58 SW of centre,,, Just in time and enough for the 4pm (CDT) new adv to confirm cat1? but maybe not given the est surf winds reduction factor which is showing mid 60`s (mph)?

has their been some slight mid-level vert shear Ice? Something`s prevented further strengthening as I figured on a cat1 by this morning? Definitely in a decreasing shear sector now so today`s the day?

08:46: 25.383N 84.150W 989.4mb,,,