mezzacyclone

,,,etcWas this verified SB? Last VDM showed changes of an Open NW eye character(L) & 39kn max surface estimate (D) but min sea lev pressures static @ 996mb. Certainly touch and go before landfall but Ern`s had us guessing throughout? sidenote: on all but one personal observation Iv`e noted weak appearance on the NW quadrant? indicative of mixing out drier air the majority of its time? has this been the major hindrance in Ernie`s development or forward speed never giving much chance for vertical stacking?

Circulation is clear and the last image loops seem to show flaring on the west side, certainly gaining in size if still less clearly defined? Recon has been put back 4 hrs until 11pm BST so we`ll see later tonight,,, Interestingly, 91L, which gfs had high hopes for, is showing good stature south of cape verde islands so if this holds up we could well have another dedicated thread for Florence?

TD5 appears to be riding out the Shear and N&W dry sectors, despite looking out of shape throughout today the latest runs show blooming vapour on the western side and more impressive is a 52 (59.8 mph) knot peak (10 sec) flight level wind which has been measured on one of the last data sets. Swingometer points back toward a TS? ( ernesto) 21:16 update: 14.000N 55.550W 1007.6 mb 54 knot (62.1mph) peak fl lev wind, the high reduction factor from flight level to surface is the only reason NHC are holding off a TS, but for how long? NHC PA5 imminent for ernesto!,,, Just out

Interesting pointers in the latest TD5 discussion Majority of models plot a couple of hundred miles North or south of saint lucia for Friday evening but we`ll see how current moderate shear leaves TD5 fairing. Strong heights for a Yucatan track or any enduring east coast trough (weaker ridge) for a more northern pull? Validity in a weak Ernesto TS due to prolonged exposure to shear? LOTS to consider and examine with more questions than answers at the mo but the latest SAL imagery shows a far better environment for the E Africa exiting waves and potential for better organised disturbance(s) down the line? (FI 228hr gfs showing deep cape verde disturbance) addendum: Hunter aircraft runs tomorrow afternoon will give a better picture,,,

Is the Saharan dust that`s put paid to pretty much every wave for the past month finally letting up? If anything becomes of it then the strong ridge lines it up for the lesser antille`s but the continuing dry air sector suggest`s a slow burner thus far (CMC overcasting aside) although "scattered moderate/isolated convection around the circulation of the surface low" suggest an element of formation perhaps taking aboard relatively weak shear predictions and high SST`s in the pathway? Surface analysis continue with the weak low but something interesting to keep an eye at long last? 99L

The reserved forecast`s continue to underestimate the intensity of Emilia, now 66% of Cat4 status within 12hrs and still a favorable 48% within 24hrs. The huge visible swathes of banding she had before circulation occurred certainly showed the potential when she was a TD and Daniel was the leading filly! What with the conditions SS mentioned and 98E then this sure is Hurricane alley right now!

Interesting how the 2pm advisory raised the 12hr cat4 probability chances to 39% from the 8am adv of just 19%? Still most likely to reach cat3 at max but it`s got `em spooked?

Indeed SS, and maybe on account of that then the intensity projection of TS Emilia is amazing!

80% TD within "a day or two" is quite conservative considering the current appearance and conditions as this could deepen rapidly and form by today`s end?

60%

Was down with the dogs earlier prof and the levels have been falling from 8pm (according to EA) and could only see 2 lower walkways under the road bridges flooded?

Another fish but hot on Daniels tail likely becoming a TS. ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Expected TS today, looking moderately good despite recent shear and still plenty of >28°C sst field to go at.

Touch and go then regarding Debby re-organising herself so all eyes on flight 2`s recon in just under 2½ hrs time (6:45am EDT)

So a "close but no cigar" But I hazard a guess that "Chris" won't be long ss? Time will tell "if" the early August update will increase the forecast from current "near normal" to more % chances of 'canes in the basins?

What an amazing start to the season! are we actually going to witness a Cat 1 here?, already had a couple of >80mph FLwinds,,,,

Viable to keep an eye on then PM, but I`m sure I`m not alone in favoring some form of a elongated NE to SW euro-high type setup to possibly allow a Biscay disturbance? A highlight for the storm-watchers amongst us this time of year, although not on offer, as too often the case?

Prolonging the mid-atlantic ridge http://www.eldoradoc...-anomalies.html leaves a more polar-maritime NWesterly influence for the mid-term IMO? NAO`s/AO`s trending slightly more neutral in hindsight but I can`t view any validity of an easterly onset? which in itself goes against the grain of the usual Siberian blast we endure in April , excluding last years very settled start that is.

I walk every night, out and away from nearby streetlight pollution etc. and when it`s clear I see a trailer quite occasionally maybe once a fortnight (at cost of falling over obstacles and walking into fencing etc.) but gutted I missed this one? Not taking into account doomsday trash-talk but on Sunday the 5th Feb I saw the longest brightest meteorite I have ever witnessed except this was opposite heading due north from south lasting over a second which is long for an object moving at tens if not hundreds of thousands of MPH so are we seeing an increase and for a particular possible reason? Watch the next one introduce a global apocalyptic wipe-out of all life-form within 1000 hrs just after my lotto win

Sustained following their change from the 3rd of "good agreement" to "fair agreement" with the latest Issue?

Any possible slight connection with the 2010 Nov/Dec cold period and Icelandic Eyjafjallajokull eruptions 14th April 2010 onwards?

Logical enough a statement I`d have thought PM, Common knowledge, thanks to many of the splendid informative posts on NW, that East pacific low/-SST anomalies (as per current) increase trade-winds in the Hadley cell regions thus affecting upper level westerlies in the Ferrel and Polar cells which maintains the PV more easily, but I`m a little more unsure with similar means to why Cyclogenesis is so vigorous given the same SST occurrences over the off-shore southern Greenland regions?

Nice try Ian but i`ll give it a go too In tune with Lorenzo`s brief earlier (post 1235) then is it favorable for the NE pacific ridging to weaken the PV and replace it with an upper level high? I must admit the CPC discussions leave me dealing with one to many hands in terms of understanding fully? Not to mention their "below average" confidence in the 6-10 period? ,,,,and before I disappear again i`d be grateful for any views with the QBO going negative and possibly impacting the AO`s negativity?

Shes certainly blowing a wild one out on the high seas, closing in over NDBC station 41049 @ 27.500 N 63.000 W with 110-115mph gusts as of 07:50 GMT. updates on the recent 35a suggest Ophelia passed directly over the buoy estimating a minimum central pressure of 952mb. Interests in Newfoundland as the path looks close with Cat1 strength?